Hendricks is full of excuses and seems to me to be very likely to be on something. I'm hoping there's some serious drug testing going on. Wouldn't be surprised at all to see Hendricks get 'injured' in the leadup here. Like Aldo, he's one of the guys who's never tested dirty who I just feel like is on something. Pure speculation of course. I do think Lawler is value at +205 though just from being more active and the first fight looked like a rematch would be a flip based on what we saw

I actually don't like the next card at all for betting, I can't help but feel like Tim Kennedy will win for some reason but in theory Romero should. Cruz will win unless the injury ruined him but the price sucks, kinda like Alvarez but too many variables to bet him, MM is unbettable obviously (although I think I like him to finish Cariaso at evens or better which is where the line is, Cariaso has been finished in 3 of his 5 losses and MM's getting better with every fight), I think McGregor will beat Poirier but no value at the price with Poirier very live as a dog, then Zingano should outclass Nunes but with the layoff, losing rounds to Tate who hasn't looked great lately plus her mind game with her husbands death/losing #1 contender status/injury it's jard to justify -260

I kinda feel like I like MM/Cariaso ends ITD at -110 the most of the lines

Rory Mac at -200 or better is tempting against Saffiedine, I think Saff is good but if Rory is willing to use his full MMA game to get the victory he's a decent favourite here, if he just wants to stand and trade he could lose though.

I think Rory is gonna stand with Saff, I'm not sure he has much choice anyways, his wrestling game looked pretty weak vs Lawler.

Nunes +235, anyone?

not the dog i was talking about but mighty mouse lines are way inflated at this point
2-0+8.44
Chris Cariaso+925 .4 units

You're going to suggest Hendricks and Aldo cheats, but nothing said about Lawler?

Cerrone will only lose against elite strikers that are faster then him. Anyone else and it's another 50k bonus in his pocket. Does Alvaraz fit that bill?

This is the best Cerrone we have ever seen and probably will ever see. What he did to miller/martins/Dunham is nothing short of amazing. This isn't the same guy that lost to Diaz/RDA.

Sure guys like Barboza/Pettis are going to give him fits, but he is a different animal than he was just a year and a half ago. Don't think people are giving him credit for this.

Alverez is tough. For a guy outside of the ufc he has beaten all the top guys. I'm not sure what that really proves though? Im nowhere near convinced he is top 5. Way to many guys have come over and just **** the bed in the ufc. Although maybe he is another Melendez, hard to say.

Also alverez should have two losses to Chandler, who just had a really close fight with brooks. Hard to say what that means, but seems relevant.

Think with odds this close you have to go with the proven fighter riding a streak, vs the unproven fighter making his ufc debut after a year layoff. Very interested in hearing someone's thoughts on why Alvarez though.

Also what round did Hendricks tear his bicep? was pretty sure it was round 1. Not loving Lawler if that's correct.

Decent chance he is too, but idk - as I said, speculation

I don't think I can really play Nunes given she has no wins over top 10 fighters but with Zingano's long layoff it's hard to bet on her too

I agree the MM line is pretty ridiculous, i'm a big Cariaso fan (I think i've bet on him in each of his last 7 fights going 5-2 and the Moraga loss was unlucky as he was up 2 rounds) but it's tough to see him beating Mighty Mouse.

Wonderboy ITD at +180ish (I expect it to be around there due to the over/under 2.5 line and ML) is tempting. I like MM ITD at +100.

A Cruz/Thompson/Masvidal parlay at around evens looks tempting, don't see any of them losing very often. Cote is a perfect matchup for Thompson, a past his prime striker with a not amazing chin, Thompson will only lose to wrestlers or top 5 strikers at this point probably. Krause isn't on Masvidal's level at all and is only coming off a win because Varner got injured in their fight and Cruz is Cruz and will only ever lose to Mizugaki if the injury totally destroyed him but even with rust and only being at 70% that's more than enough to beat Mizugaki because he's better everywhere

Mouse ITD +100 seems decent to me too.

Good card but only fight I'm sure about is Cruz winning. (Don't care about main event)
Just don't see him losing to Mizugaki.

I'm a Cerrone fan, he's gotta personality. He wins fights that he's supposed to win.
Definitely prefer betting on him when he's a dog. Scared to pull the trigger this fight as Cerrone has shown that he's a bit reserved at times and chin is OK but far from great.

Cerrone vs Alvarez
-The fights vs Dos Anjos, Pettis, and especially Diaz showed that he's gotta C-game and it sucks. Even the win vs Guillard was a sweat as I'd bet on Cerrone, Guillard was actually doing well until he got hit.

-Alvarez looks great in Bellator and is Chandler really top 5 in the world? If he is than I think Alvarez is the side to take here. I'm rooting for Cerrone but too many question marks now so just gonna watch as a fan. Gun to head, I'd put money on Alvarez. Pretty sure his UFC debut means everything to him.

Kennedy vs Romero
-Kind've leaning Kennedy, mostly due to an OK price. Romero is best wrestler but Brunson was winning that fight, Kennedy's gas tank is much better. Being so muscular and being little old, and laying a price for sure makes it a dog or pass.

-Kennedy pretty much owned Bisping, going by that fight and Romero being overrated in my books, persuades me to bet some on Kennedy.

McGregor vs Poirier
-I'm drinking the Kool Aid, getting on the hype train, being a total square here. The guy's got too much charm not to root for. He makes the event more fun. Think this sports entertainment business needs more people like him. Poirier is for sure the sharp play and excellent value. I don't care though, don't want to see Poirier spoil the Irish Party.

-Price is awful, pure sucker bet but McGregor is drawing so live here. He was double division champ in minor promotion. If he's half as good as how he promotes himself, he should be able to take Dustin's head off clean.

Promised myself not to make straight bets on such big favorites.
Betting big on Cruz-McGregor Parlay.

Here is an interesting analysis of why Eddie Alvarez gets knocked down in most of his fights (by Connor Ruebusch, one of the Bloody Elbow dudes).

"Frame-by-Frame Fights: Eddie Alvarez, the Trickster"

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=X3oDcO0vvGE

I'll probably just use matchbook's risk free sign up bet on Poirer. I feel that if Connor couldn't present his self so well he would be like a -120 to -150 favourite so its gotta be worth a freeroll

I feel like Kennedy beats Romero easy I am thinking about betting between 500 and 1000 on this match. Anythougts...........

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We discussed it a few pages back, basically Romero is the more physically gifted fighter but Kennedy is smarter and a better gameplanner.

I feel the opposite.....

Romero is better at everything than kennedy and only loses if he goes crazy.

Completely agree. Fight IQ is relevant and has played a big factor in why certain fights have been won or lost of late. Chiesa vs. Lawson is a perfect example.

Thanks for the input. I wish I could have seen him fight better opponent prior to this fight. Kennedy has fought the best in the world and came out ok (Jacare, Bisping, Manhoff, Rockhold).

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Not sure I agree with the breakdown there,

He lost vs Jacare and Rockhold so that's not really coming out ok.

He beat Bisping and Manhoff using his wrestling advantage and Romero is the far better and stronger wrestler in this fight.

Brunson was beating Yoel using his wrestling though. No real opinion on this fight, just something to consider.

Both Lauzon and Chiesa have bad fight IQ most of the time, still think I was on the right side there

Not sure who tops the bad fight IQ camp, but I feel like if you put Kennedy's brain in Romero's body you'd have one hell of a fighter and the opposite and you'd have a barely UFC caliber fighter

Warlley Alves vs Alan Jouban and Feijao vs OSP added to UFN 56 in Brazil. Interested to see how Warlley does in the UFC and a chance at redemption for two disappointing former top 15 fighters as well

Every time I look at the Australia card i'm angry at how bad it is... I mean, we have two contenders from Australia, and you put neither of them on the card? Really? Hopefully they find someone for Hunt even if it's a lower level guy. Odons or Copeland maybe? Two new HWs on the roster who are yet to debut and it's not like a loss to Hunt will hurt them, and if they win they instantly have a pile of hype and leap into the top 15. Shawn Jordan?

Also just saw Carmont got cut which despite his fights being not the best was surprising. Wandy's out for good now and Easton got cut apparently

I think he will work his way back into the UFC.

Hunt said he really wasn't interested in a non top 10 guy as it's a lose lose proposition for him. Shame as he wanted on that card and would fight anyone in the top 10.

Really excited to see Warly. Feijao has been making it hard to be a fan lately, hopefully he pulls through.

Don't like the Carmont/Easton cuts. Must've been making some decent cash, cause they are both top 25-15 guys.

Carmont and Easton are not good. Carmont one of the most boring to top it off. Good riddance IMO.

Rory opened at -225 on a few books. Don't think there is any value but probably be able to arb it as money will come in on Rory with Saffiedine being not that well known despite his talent.