-700 due to one punch KO power. Remember, if JDS can single punch KO Cain, then Hunt can too. It's unlikely, but if he catches Cain with the type of shot Kongo did, Cain's going to sleep. Obviously if he doesn't connect in r1 though he's just going to get brutalised

Just watched the Nelson/Hunt fight twice. Will probably rewatch again later, but a few thoughts.

- Hunt slowed down a lot by the second.
- Roy was outclassed by a wide margin on the feet, but even so, came very close to landing a big right THRICE in round 1.
- Roy can kick?
- How do you compare how bad Roy's takedowns are to Hunt's improved takedown defense?

re - walsh fight, walsh completely dominated first round, rocked him 3 times and kunimoto did nothing, second round was close and third round was kunimoto

Yeah Walsh won, should have prob finished in first.

Agreed. And I thought the same thing when he got flying knee KO'd by that dude in India a couple years ago.

Something weird going on.

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=pwhFxC4q5mM

I think he's playing dead here too.

Browne has Schaub next, besides he got smoked last fight and Hunt just KO'd Nelson. They shouldn't be matched up next.

Hey Swoop you might do ok

Hunt has requested to be on the OZ card, could be a fun co-main. Not sure would be available at HW though tbh

Probably not going to go, even if they add a Lombard or Hunt fight, the card still isn't worth flights/accommodation (I don't live in the city where it's being held)

I'd have gone if the card was good though. They could very easily do Lombard vs Woodley and Hunt vs any HW willing to take the fight and suddenly the card would be decent for a free card.

There are a string of good cards between 180 and 182 and 178 looks ok but a couple of the other upcoming cards aren't that good.

It'll be very interesting to see what happens next at HW if Cain retains and JDS beats Stipe. Obviously if Miocic wins he gets the next shot, or if Werdum dethrones Cain and JDS wins then they make JDS/Werdum 2 for the belt, but if Cain and JDS both win then it has to be one of Arlovski/Browne/Hunt/Rothwell (and lol at the idea of Rothwell plus he's already lost to Cain) so that leaves one of Arlovski/Browne/Hunt to fight for the belt while the other two have a #1 contenders match and they give JDS someone a bit lower (feed him Overeem to sell mass PPVs if he beats Struve or Barnett maybe just to keep him busy and because the UFC don't want Barnett anywhere near the title) to build his streak for the inevitable Cain/JDS 4 (which is much more justifiable if JDS has a 3-4 win streak to earn another shot)

Struggling to work out what to do with Struve if he beats Overeem, maybe a fight with the Mitrione/Gonzaga winner then a top 8-ish guy for the winner of that fight?

Poirier is a steal at those odds vs McGregor.
3.2x (sorry, dont know the American odds system. $100 bet -> $320 back), you gotta be kidding me.

Line movement has been crazy in that fight. Poirier opened at -220 and is now available at +240. I'll definitely take him here but think more crazy mcgreggor hype and half of Ireland betting him might push the odds even further.

This McGreggor push by the UFC is ridiculous... he's got 2 losses on his career and their pushing him like he's the next Jon Jones... he can't be that good if he's ever had a loss let alone 2.

Maybe he is very good but he's proved nothing in the UFC imo and I Porier has.

Anderson lost to a bunch of nobodies pre-UFC

Robbie Lawler lost to a bunch of nobodies

Matt Brown lost to a bunch of nobodies

JDS lost to a total unknown

Fighters improve

McGregor last lost 4 years ago and he's only 26, he was pretty inexperienced at the time and is on a 11 fight win streak including 3 UFC-caliber guys, two of whom are top 25 - he's also totally outclassed Brandao and Holloway, both of whom had fights showing they're about on par with Bermudez who is top 10 (Brandao won and i'd argue Holloway did too)

Does anyone seriously think current McGregor wouldn't absolutely destroy Joseph Duffy? The other fight was a 30 second kneebar, so I assume we can discount that as a fluke - haven't actually watched either of his losses but i'm guessing he's no longer the same fighter.

Also, Poirier isn't really known for his explosive wrestling/takedowns, he's elite on the ground but can he get it there? His striking is good, but not on McGregor's level

Poirier has looked great recently but McGregor's performances have absolutely lived up to the hype - he demolished Brandao as expected and dispatched a Holloway much better than when he fought Poirier with ease as well

I'm actually leaning McGregor here at evens as I think he matches up reasonably well stylistically but obviously not betting against Poirier at that price either - one thing is for sure, the winner comes out of the fight with piles of hype (and a much better chance against Aldo than Swanson has, I don't think Swanson even beats Edgar if they make that fight to get the title shot in the first place)

Honestly if McGregor wins this i think they should just give him the shot now, it will sell better than a Swanson or Edgar rematch for Aldo - if Poirier wins they should give Swanson the shot (they have to because he beat Poirier) and give Poirier a rematch with KZ to avenge that loss rather than feeding him to Edgar and likely losing a contender (win-win as KZ is popular and top 5 again if he wins, or Poirier avenges a recent loss and gets a top 10 win for a title shot), and Edgar can keep busy knocking off the 'we don't want this guy to get a title shot' contenders like Lentz, Lamas if he beats Bermudez, whoever gets a win streak of Siver, Elkins, etc.

Bermudez is the wild card if he and Poirier win their next fight they could possibly make Bermudez/Poirier in a #1 contender fight and give the next shot to Swanson, then set up Edgar/Mendes or Aldo loser or something which would be a pretty awesome fight

tell me what im missing is donald cerrone a solid bet?

Connors gonna wreck Poirer in my opinion. Think Poirer is extremely overrated. he was getting beat up by Brando before he gassed out, and Alkira of all people was staying very competitive.

When he does win this, and the hype train goes ballistic, will fade hard vs Aldo/Mendes though.

Cerrone has questionable striking defense and grappling - his offense is probably better than Alvarez's but his defense probably isn't as good

Seems like a flip, I do feel like Cerrone's run a fight or two above expectation in his UFC tenure so far though, I don't think he beats any of Bendo/Melendez/Khabib/RDA/Pettis it's more a question of how good Alvarez is which is tough since we know he's about as good as Chandler but they've only really fought each other recently and Chandler fought Brooks who also seems about on par with them

I want to bet Alvarez but having trouble actually pulling the trigger, I haven't been great at picking Cerrone fights recently

Weidman just pulled out of the Vitor fight.

Hendricks/Lawler2 will now happen on December 6.

Weidman/Vitor moved to February.

2-0+8.44

i disliek cerrone but hes been impressive lately and looking at his record hes really only lost to top top guys but i know nothing of alvarez

Alvarez is potentially top 5, him and chandler are competitive with anyone in the division.

I don't see value in betting this one with the odds so close, my gut says Alvarez but it's close to a flip as nothing to say he won't get the first UFC fight jitters

See a dog i like but waiting for a better line

I like Lawler at +2xx to get it done this time. He looked fantastic against Brown and should have won the first Hendricks fight if he didn't randomly fade in r5

I think i'll probably be on Lawler and Pettis for that card depending where the odds end up.

I love how deep 178 is, can you imagine if Jones/Cormier or Jones/Gus 2 was on the card as well?

I would happily take the UFC 178 prelims as a main card in Australia over the card we got. Its crazy that the main event isn't even in the top 5 most interesting fights on the card.

Just a week ago Hendricks said he wouldn't be back until feb/march 2015 and is only at 85%

This seems like a great time to bet Lawler

http://espn.go.com/blog/mma/post/_/i...o-return-in-15

That poirier opener was by some small book IIRC, McGregor opened as a solid fave at real books.

Looks like at least a couple opened at that price and 5d's -150 bovada -170

Still a decent amount of movement