lol on paper? Not in the cage, he's not better?

Nog out vs Kongo, guess his arm didn't heal. Tap faster dude...

how many times has Guida ever won a fight where he couldn't get on top of a fighter and control them for periods of time? honest question, memory is hazy about how some of his fights have gone.

I don't think he can do that to Maynard.

Dos Anjos is a pretty good fighter and he literally busted his jaw in the stand up.

He did proceed to get top position and press his forearm into it for a pain induced tap, but the damage was done on the feet.

That's about all I can remember tho

Struve vs Miocic announced

Should be an amazing fight, first time i've been scared for Struve in a while, but he does have the tools to beat Miocic, honestly the best gameplan is stand for a bit then pull guard like he did against Johnson imo. Will be VERY interesting to see where the line opens there, either of them could be a decent fav imo, i'm expecting Miocic -140 since Struve basically always opens as a dog but who knows.

Getting tempted to get on Guida vs Maynard for some reason I just see him winning a decision via energiser bunny a lot, haven't pulled the trigger yet though.

Only pending bet atm is 1.5u on Pearson

BJ Penn +232 vs Rory Mac... discussion time?

On the surface it looks tempting with BJ's solid TDD and the fact it's a 3 round fight.

Betting wise I think there's more value on Guida than Maynard. It is a 5 round fight and Maynards cardio hasn't look all that good in his 5r fights, so I def think Guida can outwork him. Another good fact is that Guida has a good chin which is why I don't see him getting rocked like Edgar did early in the round, add to that that Guida is more of a volume puncher than Maynard and that always(well most of the time) looks good on the judges scorecard.

I genuinely feel sorry for BJ Penn, I think he's going to get destroyed in this fight. This is one of the worst matchups for him, Rory has looked like a beast lately and since he's going to have the better cardio, longer reach, stronger and mixed arsenal of both td's and solid standup he's going to take it. I mean, Rory doesn't really have any big weakness, the only time he's lost was against Condit when he got taken down in 3rd round and was fatigued a bit himself. I don't see that happening in this fight at all.

I see this scenario playing out way too often, Rory stands a bit, BJ Penn like always in the beginning of a round looks pumped and ready to go, starts throwing some combinations, rory immediately shoots for a takedown, gets it and TKO's BJ Penn with elbows/punches basically.

I sincerely hope though that he trains his ass off for this fight and pulls off some kind of victory but I just don't see it happening with Rory being the new generation talent and physical specimen.

Maynard's cardio is fine. He went 5 very hard rounds with Edgar and arguably won the 5th so he should have no problems. Better standup, better wrestler, think Maynard should be -400 or steeper here. RDA was beating Guida before he sustained that injury and ended up losing as a direct result.

BJ is tempting at +232 because he definitely has edges here. His standup has looked much better than McDonald's. McDonald's looked very, very hittable on the feet, getting clipped pretty good by some mediocre fighters in Mills and Guymon. Problem is I just don't see Penn caring or being motivated for this. The guy was done fighting and is reluctantly coming out for another paycheck. McDonald is not the type of fighter you wanna halfass it against...

It's not that Maynard gets tired as in BJ Penn does when he just becomes a walking zombie, it's just that he gets very passive in the later rounds and relys on one punch hits. It's understandable he got tired vs Edgar in r2 after doing excessive punching in r1, but even in round 3, 4 he looked very passive.

It's not like Che Mills has some of the best standup at 170 or anything.

LOOOOOOOOOOOOOOL

I think it's more "Maynard isn't a very high volume striker in general" and less "he was passive/tired." Again, he has shown strong cardio in the past so I don't see that as a real concern. The only way I see him losing this is a bad judges' decision where Guida throws a lot of missed punches a la Leonard Garcia or getting caught with a guillotine in a scramble maybe. Maynard should be able to take Guida down if the standup is for some reason not going ideally.

He lost the fifth clearly in Frankie II. If you're scoring it for Maynard you're biased; if you're scoring it 47-47 then it's the first 10-8 and the third 10-9 for maynard and otherwise it's 48-46 Edgar (which is how I scored it personally, although i'm slightly biased and 47-47 is a fair score too as the third literally was one of the closest rounds i've ever seen, but 48-46 maynard isn't right at all)

Also, he got TKO'd in the rematch and Edgar isn't known as a power puncher. The more I think about the the more I like Guida here; slightly better chin, good enough wrestling that its a flip wrestling-wise and volume punches and cardio. Maynard's biggest asset is that he hits harder and Guida is more hittable, although if his chin holds, I can see him swarming Maynard in r/3/4/5 like Frankie did in the third fight

Convinced myself now that i'll put down a unit on Guida, thoughts on bet now vs bet on fight day? Which way should the line be moving?

Pearson will be my main play for the card though I think

Penn can win if he fights smart vs Rory. If he fights like he did in R1 vs Diaz then he can absolutely take it, if he comes in out of shape then there's no point in him even showing up. He should be fighting at LW though if he's serious about making another run at it, especially if Edgar loses the rematch to Bendo and goes to FW clearing the way for one last run at the title for Penn if he can get 2 wins together. He's obviously never getting another shot at GSP or Frankie (if Frankie reclaims his belt)

I don't think it matters in terms of where both of the guys are training wise aka I don't think we will find out anything more about them during weigh ins, more if the odds are going to move in one direction, which I'm not sure.

If we're talkin chins and getting dropped by non power punchers, Florian dropped Guida, so there's that. Bendo as well IIRC. You are overrating Guida's chin and laughably underrating Maynard's wrestling. It's a flip wrestling wise? Jesus.

If you're gonna be betting on Penn coming out in shape, you're gonna be broke pretty fast. All I can really say about that. I think if he hypothetically did then there is plenty value on that line and Penn is my favorite fighter so I wish he would but I just gotta be realistic here.

You could be right there, although it all comes down to the matchup, Guida beat Pettis who beat Bendo who beat Edgar who beat Maynard who beat Florian who beat Guida and so on etc etc

I actually haven't seen the Florian Guida fight somehow, although i've seen the rest of both Maynard and Guida's relevant fights.

I'm not saying I think Guida's a favourite to win the fight fwiw, just that there might be value at +300. Same with Penn vs Rory Mac imo, we should know more one way or the other when we start hearing about his camp and see the weigh ins etc. - i'm a Penn hater fwiw but I like him over Rory Mac (who i'm indifferent towards) at +232. I'd take Rory at evens though.

I'm a huge Penn fan and putting any money on him is insanity. Rory is going to crush him.

Meh, you're prob one of those clowns who think people like Hendricks and Sanchez are better.

No I get what you're saying and maybe he does have a good enough chance to be +EV, it's hard to say for sure with odds like this. I believe his shot is pretty damn slim so I say no, but my main point is that your reasoning has holes especially wrestling = evens. Maynard has shown far superior wrestling ability in his fights in addition to having far better credentials.

Florian dropped Guida on the feet then quickly took his back and RNC him while he was stunned.

@LasFuentas lol I mean cmon. Che Mills? Some of the best standup in the world at 170? Really?

BJ will look good the first round. At least for 4 minutes. Then Rory will just ragdoll crush him after the gas tank runs dry. Sigh. BJ in shape at 155 is what really interests me. Not this fight at 170 so he doesn't have to train or get in shape.

Yes, I would favor him over most the division in a kickboxing match. I'd put maybe 3-4 guys above him max. BJ won't come close to looking that good standing vs. Rory.

This this this.

@LF Carlos Condit, GSP, Nick Diaz thats just a few names that jump to mind immediately without even really thinking about it...

I'd have serious doubts over Diaz and Condit beating him standing. The only definite ones I'd rank above are GSP and Siyar, while Thiago Alves and Erick Silva would be close too, but otherwise I'd favor him heavily over anyone else. Maybe put Wonderboy too, but his boxing doesn't seem that good.

Alves for sure, maybe Martin Kampmann too. Plenty of 170ers whose chances I like there.

Point is McDonald has shown a tendency to get clipped on the feet. BJ Penn is one of the best boxers in the game. He should have a decent edge in the standup, though how long it stays there is the real question mark.

You do know Rory fought Condit and the standup was very competetive? Also, Rory while being shortly stunned in fights, seems to have a decent chin and will be able to handle Penns punches. Add to that that this being MMA is far more better for Rory than BJ Penn since takedowns come into consideration and Bj Penn can't be as free with his strikes and has to worry about takedowns attempts. Still Rory has very solid and crisp striking and should be able to stand his ground vs BJ enough to take it to the ground or ride out first round and slowly start to own BJ standup as well.

I don't know who would win if the fights were standup fights only and the rankings in terms of striking alone, but this is MMA and we have to judge them on that critera, which is why GSP is so much better striker in MMA than he would be in K1 for instance due to takedowns.

edit: also, I saw the rory vs condit fight again now, Rory got ripped in the end by the referee, no way that was a stoppage, especially after Condit takes a breather and lays on him for a bit right at that moment he stops it.

Condit was outstriking McDonald on the feet. I just rewatched that fight like a month ago.

McDonald will not beat BJ up on the feet unless he just flat out doesn't even train and even then it's still a tossup. Gets hit too hard too often. Still, not expecting much from Penn and obv won't be betting him. Dude simply doesn't care.

Not by much, if you look at the fight metric, he wasn't getting outclassed or anything on the feet when it comes to significant strikes. I said the fight was competetive standup wise because both of them were landing decent punches/kicks with Condit having slightly higher volume.

Whilst I agree Rory tends to get hit a lot, he has a chin + good takedowns to back it up.

I do hope BJ Penn beats Rory then takes one last run at lightweight division, with edgar hopefully not winning vs Bendo.