Quote:
Originally Posted by just_mo
He went 5 very hard rounds with Edgar and arguably won the 5th so he should have no problems.
BJ is tempting at +232 because he definitely has edges here. His standup has looked much better than McDonald's. McDonald's looked very, very hittable on the feet, getting clipped pretty good by some mediocre fighters in Mills and Guymon. Problem is I just don't see Penn caring or being motivated for this. The guy was done fighting and is reluctantly coming out for another paycheck. McDonald is not the type of fighter you wanna halfass it against...
He lost the fifth clearly in Frankie II. If you're scoring it for Maynard you're biased; if you're scoring it 47-47 then it's the first 10-8 and the third 10-9 for maynard and otherwise it's 48-46 Edgar (which is how I scored it personally, although i'm slightly biased and 47-47 is a fair score too as the third literally was one of the closest rounds i've ever seen, but 48-46 maynard isn't right at all)
Also, he got TKO'd in the rematch and Edgar isn't known as a power puncher. The more I think about the the more I like Guida here; slightly better chin, good enough wrestling that its a flip wrestling-wise and volume punches and cardio. Maynard's biggest asset is that he hits harder and Guida is more hittable, although if his chin holds, I can see him swarming Maynard in r/3/4/5 like Frankie did in the third fight
Convinced myself now that i'll put down a unit on Guida, thoughts on bet now vs bet on fight day? Which way should the line be moving?
Pearson will be my main play for the card though I think
Penn can win if he fights smart vs Rory. If he fights like he did in R1 vs Diaz then he can absolutely take it, if he comes in out of shape then there's no point in him even showing up. He should be fighting at LW though if he's serious about making another run at it, especially if Edgar loses the rematch to Bendo and goes to FW clearing the way for one last run at the title for Penn if he can get 2 wins together. He's obviously never getting another shot at GSP or Frankie (if Frankie reclaims his belt)