Doubt Cruz has any rust tbh, perhaps it would show against someone like Barao/Dillashaw etc, but not vs a regular top 10. Cruz is also a gym rat, I think he's very comfortable in the ring.

Training in the gym is very different to a fight. I'm sure Bisping looked good in the gym thought he was ready for Kennedy.

It'll be nearly 3 years since he's been in the cage, thats a huge amount of time to take off.

Edit: And looking through his results last time he got a stoppage was 2008!

There is no way the Cruz of old shows up after 3 years and two knee surgeries he is absolutely going to be rusty. Mizugaki is no pushover either and has some decent momentum going to be an interesting fight. At -360 I don't see much value in Cruz.

Well don't see how Diaz not getting finishes is relevant. He's been facing top guys and he's never been a finisher to start with. Cruz was a top 2 guy, he's beat serious fighters. Bisping never broke over top 5 and his best win is Brian Stann. Also, Miz and Cruz are more far apart than Bisping/Kennedy are, Kennedy also had a style to beat Bisping.
And I get the feeling he wouldn't be stepping in if he didn't feel he performing at this best. I mean yeah, against Barao/Dillashaw, his ring rust could play a part, but he's facing mizugaki, a guy Cruz would win over even if he wasn't 100% when he had the belt.

The finishes aren't really relevant, just found it surprising when looking through his stats.

All fighters face ring rust, it does't matter how skilled they are it's always an issue. This is 3 years and many injuries later. I will be pleasantly surprised if he comes back as anything like the fighter he was (I think it could improve the division). However putting money on an fighter after this kind of break and injuries is just too high risk form me especially when he's -370.

A small Mizugaki ITD at around +550/600 is likely the much better value bet

I have to agree with Elliot in regards to the ring rust.

Nearly every fighter after a long lay off often speak of ring rust even if they win. It's nearly the 1st question Rogan asks and they all say yes it was a factor.

3 years off and 2 knee surgeries could turn some fighters from contenders to irrelevant. I don't think the time off will devastate Cruz as I think he's a smart guy who puts in the work but it will have some affect.

Still think he takes it via decision but not worth the bet at current lines.

Mizugaki never finishing Cruz tho.

Got a 1.3u parlay on Lim/Caceres/Cruz. at evens. I think it hits slightly over half the time.

Considering Blanco and Walsh as well at current prices and Sicilia and Tanaka to a lesser degree

Fired a 0.6u parlay at +501 on Tate/Caceres/Cruz/Lim/Zingano/Akiyama. I quite like it, think it's more like +350 to hit.

Also fired my 0.05u 9 pick parlay for this weekend's card at +10150 or something ridiculous just for the sweat on all of my picks for the card

Also

0.5u each on

Blanco -153 (skillset should be better, if he can keep it together fight IQ wise)
Lim -531 (despite the ridiculous price I don't think he's ever losing, I think he's even more of a fav than MM is against Cariaso and MM is -1300 or whatever)
Walsh +200 (I like Kuunimoto here but would cap it at more like -150 so think there's slight value in an odds play)
Sicilia +127 (think i'd like him slightly outside of Japan and in Japan it's a flip)

Wow, Struve vs Overeem announced... as a Struve fan i'm nervous about this fight but it's guaranteed excitement and pretty much a guaranteed finish. I hope Struve can finish Reem's chin once and for all. He's so hittable, and his chin isn't the best, but Reem's is worse and Struve does have KO power

How do we cap this at this stage of their careers with the variables of Struve coming off heart condition and Overeem coming off getting knocked out heaps..

+100 either side?

Fight ends inside distance will probably be -500 for this one lol, i'd love to get the u1.5 rounds at evens but I doubt it'll be available

If Struve can take one shot from Overeem and not drop I like his chances to land since we know Overeem can't take a shot from anyone anymore and Struve did KO Miocic and a bunch of the lower ranked guys in the division... he's also very hittable and Reem has power though.

Does this fight ever go the distance, even like 1 in a 100? Both guys are just so finishable, with Struve being more durable but he's taken so many beatings himself and one hook and he usually goes down.
Really interesting fight.

Struve had a panic attack prior to his last fight due to his heart issue.... The video of it is here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XtiTh9dedHw

Not sure he's worth a bet right now

Overeem by decision may not be the worst idea there. He could easily use the same gameplan he had vs Mir.

Obviously would need great odds, but probably the only value I see that fight holding.

I would be shocked if Reem lasts 3 rounds with Struve without either finishing or being countered and finished

Struve has more range and probably more power than Mir at this point of their careers

I think if Struve uses the Rothwell gameplan of 'take a shot to give a shot' he has a decent chance of surviving to land, far from a lock obviously but he does have the more durable chin even if Reem's striking is technically better

Just noticed Cormier ITD is +652 that seem weird to anyone else considering he's around +150 to win?

Probably due to how long it took him to finish Hendo, despite how dominant he was.

I guess, but here he has another 2 rounds to do it

Took Jury at -400 at Boylesport because its -500 upwards everywhere else and -600 at 5dimes. Will look to hedge it tomorrow after the weigh in and freeroll Jury for something like 0.1 of a unit.

Overeem should beat Struve by KO. Struve doesn't have the type of brute power that usually spells doom for ole Roids at this point.

How in the world is Cormier going to finish Jones? Don't see it.

Seems good considering you'd have to think he finishes over half the time if he's winning

Jones showed in the Gustafsson fight that he's tough though but if he's on his back for 5 rounds getting pounded on (the most likely way Cormier wins imo) you'd have to think he'll get the finish more often than not in 5 rounds

I think i'm still backing Jones here. Honestly, if Jones goes through Cormier and Gustafsson again assuming he beats Rumble you'd have to make the case he's taken the GOAT title from Anderson and Fedor. Whether he can do it is another story but he's just faced an absolute murderer's row of contenders.

Just watched the second episode of the 115 womens TUF season, don't think we have our winner yet after two episodes. Enjoying Felice and Rose's personalities on the show and would be nice to see one of them run deep, would be nice to see either Aussie do well but doesn't seem that likely. Esparza still has to be the favourite.

The +652 means he has to finish jones more than 14% of the time. I would put it closer to 20-25% of the time in a 5 round fight.

I like cormier here and think he'll dominate, if he does dominate for the 5 rounds a stoppage isn't that unlikely.

Jones for heaps here IMO.

Hunt apparently 19 lbs overweight with 1 day to go, will have to cut last minute etc

Started camp at 340

Good signs for Roy overall because cutting might be draining to Hunt's cardio

Nelson in to +110 and getting steamed, tempted to fire but I think I want to just sit back and enjoy the fight too much to actually fire it

Dan Hooker represents value @ +125. The guy is a beast.

Blanco will probably gas after Rd1 and there is a decent chance he gets DQ'd.

Being back in Japan he may go back to old ways soccer kick, illegal knees etc.

GL

Yeah Hooker getting steamed even though I put a half unit on Blanco i'd kinda like to see Hooker win. Hooker looked a lot bigger than I thought at weigh-ins too

Lim looks a full weight class bigger than Sato as expected

Walsh didnt have the size advantage I expected

Nakai's body doesn't look real, she has the oddest frame

Sadollah looks slight bigger than Akiyama but Akiyama looks to have a lower base of gravity slightly which is good if he actually uses his judo. I think it's going to come down to whether Akiyama gameplans properly.

Hunt definitely had to cut a lot of weight but does look in better shape than expected and Nelson doesn't so definitely won't pull the trigger on Nelson after all, should be a great fight either way