Unfortunately the fight won't ever happen.

Paul trained with Melvin and attributes the work they did to the level he's reached. He said it wouldn't feel right to fight his mentor.

Just saw the Arlovski on cage celebration - some guy in the front starts booing him so Andrei yells 'You boo? **** you!' at the guy. Thought that was pretty awesome.

Would be awesome to see him make one last run and earn one last title shot, it's unlikely and even more unlikely he would win but would be a great retirement fight for him if he loses and of course if he wins it would be one of the greatest comeback stories ever

^^That was awesome, would like to see AA/Rothwell next. I think it will be competitive.

The problem for the UFC in regards to the HW division is the gap in skill from Cain>JDS> Everyone else. It's tough to be deemed worthy of a shot at Cain when you've already lost to JDS or Cain in the past.

Pretty much exactly how I see it but your description was better

I almost never bet favorites as you can see in this thread, just really don't see what kennedys game plan can be here.

edit: the game plan will prob be to wait for Romero to make one of his mistakes... When a guys a better striker, wrestler and is stronger than you options are pretty limited

In theory Romero should crush him but Romero was down 2 rounds on most peoples cards to Brunson before a random late finish and he also got knocked out by Feijao who kinda sucks, granted when he was a lot greener.

Kennedy on the other hand overperforms with the exception of R1 against Roger Gracie but he did come back to win that, beat Bisping who is legit top 10, Robbie Lawler a couple years back and his only 2 losses since 2007 are to Jacare who is the de facto #1 contender and Rockhold who is probably the de facto #2 contender once Belfort's had his shot

I'm kinda tempted to take Kennedy after all of the steam comes on Romero (and I expect it will especially when he dwarfs him at weigh-ins, tempted to fire Romero now to arb later)

Physical talent only gets you so far, ask Uriah Hall. While Romero should beat him, the question is will he?

Does anyone find it weird that there are literally no lines out for the Japan card other than the main? I'm hoping to catch a good opener on Miesha Tate, Hyun Gyu Lim, Alex Caceres, Yoshihiro Akiyama or Myles Jury.

Horiguchi and Kiinimoto are the most tempting of the other Japanese fighters on the card but I wouldn't be that shocked if Akiyama is the only Japanese fighter to win all night.

I'd love to get any of Tate -150, Lim -300, Caceres -200, Jury -150, Akiyama -200 and for all I know the line could open even better on any of them. I'd take any of Horiguchi, Kiinimoto, Sicilia or Tanaka as a dog as well probably

I actually love the look of the Japan card, so many of the fights will be exciting. Japan always seems to get great cards from an entertainment perspective even without any big names. Compare that the the garbage cards we've been getting lately in Australia - Woodley ducked Lombard so now he'll either get a tune up fight or won't even be on the card as no one ranked contenders seem to be available.

Middleweight Luke Rockhold vs. Michael Bisping

Either Rockhold crushes Bisping in r1 or we get a back and forth jab/cage lean fest. I love Bisping but this is not a main event in 2014.

Middleweight Robert Whittaker vs. Clint Hester

Either Hester LnPs or Whittaker Ko's him. This fight's fine, I like Whittaker and it's a fair matchup, although it's irrelevant to rankings.

Heavyweight Soa Palelei vs. Daniel Omielańczuk

Again this is okay, but it's not like this has any bearing on rankings either, I guess Palelei is borderline top 15 due to lack of depth at HW. We get a likely Palelei KO though so cool. They're giving the Aussie guys winnable fights this time.

Lightweight Jake Matthews vs. Vagner Rocha

Could be some fun BJJ exchanges but more than likely a 30-27 snorefest as one of them maintains top position. Again, irrelevant to rankings.

Light Heavyweight Anthony Perosh vs. Guto Inocente

Perosh has heart and is a feel good story but I can't see this fight being exciting unless there's an early flash KO. Irrelevant to rankings.

Welterweight Dylan Andrews vs. Sam Alvey

Again, this will probably suck. TUF rejects who are lower mid level.

Welterweight Vik Grujic vs. Chris Clements

And this will definitely suck. Both are not really UFC caliber fighters.

Kelly vs Zachrich

Debutant vs TUF Reject. Kelly might be a prospect, otherwise not that interesting.

The card's not quite as bad as I thought when I started writing this post but it would still get 'worst card ever?' questions if it was a North American card.

I was so keen to go down to Sydney when Lombard/Woodley was the headliner but unless we get a few good fights announced and soon i'm just not going to, the Brisbane card was the worst live UFC event i've been to and was only saved by Hunt/Bigfoot main

So far there are literally only 2 top 15 fighters on the Sydney card in the Main. If they add Lombard vs a top 15 contender it becomes acceptable-ish, but it's like every Australian card has a weaker lineup than the previous one.

That's more of an MMA math breakdown of the fight rather than style vs style.

I really can't see anywhere Kennedy holds an advantage? In terms of Blisping I'd take Romero at this price vs him also.

Fight IQ and heart. That's all Kennedy has over Romero. Whether that's enough or not will come down to whether Romero makes a mistake or not because Kennedy will capitalise if he does. I'm not disputing that skillset-wise Romero has the higher ceiling and in theory he matches up well, but smart fighter vs dumb fighter matters. Should John Howard ever beat Uriah Hall? Should Chael Sonnen be throwing spinning backfists against Anderson Silva, or DHK throwing spinning backfists against Tyron Woodley? Josh Thomson deciding to stand and bang with Bobby Green instead of pursuing takedowns? Donald Cerrone turning his fight with Nate Diaz into a boxing match?

In theory Romero should have the advantage but Kennedy will pounce on weakness if he makes a mistake and i'm not sure I trust Romero not to make one.

Pretty much see it the same way I guess. Not sure you can question his heart though as it's not really been tested.

If both fight to their full potential this is a beatdown and Romero is -350ish, as it stands I feel he's -225 to -250 due to evidence of limited fight IQ -135 has good value.

If he doesn't go crazy he wins if he does he may lose but even then he could still win.

Think Swoops analysis is spot on, some fights it's just not about style vs style (should be) but it becomes a fight iq vs fight iq match. Remember that Cerrone Diaz fight, Cerrone would land 1-2 succesful kicks and/or takedown Diaz, but he wouldn't pursue that path, no he instead walked in to diazes punches like a stubborn mule.

In my experience, betting on talent over intangibles is usually a profitable endeavor.

Romero -135 for me.

Anyone think i'd be wrong to take any of these lines if they opened around here on the Japan card?

Tate -150, Lim -300, Caceres -200, Jury -150, Akiyama -200, any of Horiguchi, Kiinimoto, Sicilia or Tanaka at +100

It seems absurd the card is in 5-6 days and no lines are out other than main

Jury is more like -300 imo. I don't see him losing and should be a top 5 LW.

Finally just watched the last ufc card. Fun card. Went 4/5 with two underdogs and a big bet on peppy to make up for a big chunk of my losses on Chiesa.

Gratz to those who got Spenser and Arvolski, probably the two best bets if that card.

Thinking of parlaying Jury/Leory/Lim.together if all their odds are somewhat decent. Don't see either of them losing.

Also very interested in the Blanco line.

Blanco line tempting

Still like the Akiyama line

Horiguchi price is absurd, considering Delos Reyes at that price

Tanaka line seems decent although Kang is underrated

Jury unbettable but probably don't play Gomi until closer to +500

Like Sicilia as a small dog

Kuunimoto line is too steep, almost considering switching to Walsh @ that line

Thinking I might play Akiyama and a Tate/Lim/Caceres parlay which should be at slightly better than evens - Akiyama's been losing competitive fights (other than Belfort) to top guys and Sadollah's on an even longer layoff than he is plus Akiyama will have the crowd behind him and hometown judging if it's close

I hit the Pinny openers for Tate and Akiyama, I think the money will come on both of them. Got Tate -238 to win 2u and Akiyama -167 to win 2.8u. Going to keep an eye out for the Lim and Sicilia openers too. If I can somehow get Lim -480 or something i'd imagine he'll be -850 by fight time. Sicilia +115 or Caceres -200 would be nice too.

I'm so excited for this card for some reason, even without the names it has so many of my favourite fighters and prospects

Bets so far

2.8u Akiyama -167
2u Tate -238

Was hoping to get Blanco for a better price. -175 seems alright though.

Not sure how the line will move here. Hooker stayed very composed in his ufc debut, and won with some really nice elbows after showing some great sub defence.

Blanco has terrible fight IQ and just had a close fight with Ogle, despite how much better he clearly was. However Blanco is very talented, athletic, and stylistically this should be a great fight for him.

Might take him by KO, or the under now once I think about it. (U1.5 at +140)

I like the Akiyama bet but I think I'll pass just due to the inactivity of both fighters. I'm really excited for this card too probably because I used to love Pride FC and the weird Japanese fight culture that went with it. Can't wait for Hunt vs Nelson aswell think I'm just going to leave this card alone and enjoy it as a fan.

Locked in my Romero bets at -125 on a Euro book for 5 units looking to arb some of this though so that I end up with an enhanced line and my exposure will only be 2 units max.

I think i've faded Kennedy more than anyone ITT but I can't bring myself to do it this time for some reason. I think i'm just going to not bet that fight.

Considering a Tate/Lim/Caceres/Cruz/Zingano parlay. I think it'll be +2xx, maybe +300 and should hit a third of the time or more

1-0+7.44

hunt is on a future card

1-0+7.44 ytd
hunt-152

may have more later

Are you not worried about Tate after her last performance? I mean she should win this easily, but regardless of what the judges say, she just lost her last fight. Which she shouldn't have had to much of a problem with either.

She didn't look that great but looked about on par with Carmouche. I'd snap take Carmouche here in the same spot, despite not having watched much tape on Nakai she had a close fight with a chick who just lost to Roxanne Modafferi and her best win is Sarah D'Alelio, who both Tate and Carmouche would beat handily.

Home crowd is good for Nakai but if she's as chunky as she looks in her pictures, Tate should have a huge reach advantage on her in the standup along with the better ground game if it goes there - all of the pundits whose opinions I respect are picking Tate

Despite Nakai's 16-0 record she's effectively 2-0 against almost-UFC level fighters, and her best win in D'Alelio is 3-6 in her last 9, granted against decent competition (a win over Nunes is her lone with over a UFC caliber fighter). LaRosa is on a 3 fight losing streak and has 2 losses to Modafferi in her last 7 fights and as much as I love Roxy she is not really a UFC caliber fighter

I'm using a lot of MMAth here but Tate has 5 inches of height on Nakai and she's beaten fighters like Marloes Coenen, Liz Carmouche (granted in a close fight) and is the only fighter to last more than a round with Rousey (granted in a beatdown. She's only been finished since early in her career by Rousey and Zingano (a fight she was winning on most cards) and I don't see Nakai winning any way other than an early KO. Due to Nakai's build, Tate should have a decent cardio advantage too.

Tate doesn't have a particularly bad chin and she has a reach advantage (64.5 inches, couldn't find Nakai's reach but at 5'1 vs Tate's 5'6 it should be more like 59-63 inches), plus she has an experience against elite competition without being too old advantage and a ground game advantage.

The more I think about it the more I want to fire a big Tate/Lim/Cruz parlay, I just can't see any of them losing unless Tate randomly gets KO'd in the first 10 seconds or Cruz re-injures himself mid fight and it would get better than evens. I can't imagine Cruz would have come back if he wasn't ready to do so after all of this time off surely he isn't rushing it this time. Remember, Cruz dismantled Faber and Mighty Mouse and is still arguably the GOAT at BW for the time being and Mizugaki's best win a close fight with Caraway where Caraway slacked off in R3 because Tate told him he won the first two rounds. Mizugaki is WAY better than he used to be but he isn't on Cruz's level unless he's drastically worse than he was pre-injury.

I was just curious. Due to limited time and not being able to watch tape for each fight, decided to just not cap that fight. Tate really unimpressed me in her last fight though.

Also think don't know if I would touch Cruz straight up, could be a good parlay filler though.

I normally try to bet straight, and avoid parlays after some terrible ones where i misses by one fighter. On this card my biggest bet may be Blanco, Lim, Caceres, Jury parlay though. Currently paying +195 on dimes.

I wouldn't overplay cruz here, the ring rust will likely be terrible for him.

See how he does in this one and then fire next time if he looks good