How much weight does your average 205lbs fighter cut? Anyone got any idea?

20 lbs? There are some monsters that probably cut close to twice that though.

15-25lbs would be standard,

Possibly 30 from the start of camp but more than that is quite rare from what I've seen.

Got Spencer at -167 and -175 already, he should have too big a speed and cardio adv. Also Thiago has never been good. Plan to add more if i can get 180 or better.

thinking I like:
Yahya +140 Seems like more of a flip and being in Brasil should help Yahya

Araujo -165 Araujo is good on the ground and can keep a good pace. His striking is mediocre but he backs opponents up and shoots takedowns on the cage. He also pulls guard off his stuffed shots and has swept multiple time in both his UFC fights. Sullivan looked pretty weak in clinch/grappling exchanges with Rhodes, and he moves north/south on the feet and that isnt great if you are trying to avoid tds. Think Araujo gets this to the ground enough.

Pepe -150. Johnson has 8 rd1 wins, those 8 opponents have 2 wins combined, 1 split dec win over a 12-12 fighter, and an ass kicking in his UFC debut. Pepe has fought real fighters and has some decent wins. This seems like a great spot.

Hallman +200 Tibaus muscles are all show and he is getting old. Hallman should be able to win a dec or split dec more than enough to cover the line.

long-time lurker - yeah 6'2 129 is ridic if that's true.

Im 6'2, 175 and considered light (although most people peg me as much heavier)

For the longest time i was 6'2 165 and had your line of thought "oh my god I just can't put on weight bla bla".. that's all crap. Unless you're counting calories day-in day-out I don't believe you at all. Everyone thinks they have special metabolism, but trust me you're not some special human with special metabolism. I went from 'not being able to gain weight no matter what' to 200+ in a bulk (before cutting) by stepping on a scale every morning and adjusting my daily/weekly caloric intake accordingly through counting cals. You don't need a 'special' trainer to do it it, it's tilting to hear that.

Weight gain is a science, just up your daily caloric intake AND track it (unless you just want to stay at 129, which seems unhealthy.. do you have a picture?)

Yeah, if you want I can show you a pic. Just message me with an email or something, no idea how to send on here... I swear I'm a very healthy person though. feel like I'm in great shape, train almost every day, and was doing long distance running before. My calorie intake must be way above average too. Also it sounds off, but I don't feel l really look awkward either.. just is what it is kind of thing.

Anyways off of me.

Hallman +200 (2u)
Andrade/Pashesco u2.5 +170 (1u)
Peppy -170/-150 (9u)
Spencer -178 (1u)
Yahya +140 (2u)

Hey if you're healthy, it's all good but man 6'2 seems crazy for that weight. As others have said, I'm 6'1 165-170 and am considered quite skinny.

Pretty much matches my analysis

I'm very tempted to fire big on Pepey, Dashon has no wins over anyone good and even his high school friend who I know says he expects him to get his ass kicked in the UFC and not get any wins. He has also said Dashon is absurdly athletic even for a pro, but skillset wise I just can't see him beating Pepey more than a third of the time

Very tempted to fire Araujo too he's impressed me in his last few from memory and Sullivan doesn't quite have the same resume

Not touching a Tibau fight regardless but I would have had this closer with Tibau being maybe -140 so if I were to bet it would have been on Hallmann

Also agree that Bedford/Yahya is a flip.

I haven't made any bets yet but i'm likely to do something like 2u Pepey, 1u Araujo and maybe a bunch of small parlays on the other fighters I like to win. A couple cards ago i'd have probably gone 5u on Pepey but I want to go a bit smaller until i've had a couple winning cards and got some confidence back.

Catchweight (159 lbs) Ryan Couture def. Tom Bagnasco Submission (rear-naked choke) RD1 3:01

Nice read on Mcgeary there Sect and everyone else who tipped him

+1.5u for Bellator card based off the single fight.

@Sect do you want me to ship stars or keep the $ on tab for tomorrows card

No tip... he's like my Matt Brown of Bellator. I can spot em. Glad we got a decent win under our belts going into tomorrow.

Please just leave for a tab.

np, just PM me tonight if u want any bets for tomorrows card

Just made a few bets for tomorrow's card

2u Pepey -155
1u Araujo -170
0.25u Santos/Alcantara/Pepey/Araujo +397
0.12u Santos/Alcantara/Pepey/Araujo/Pacheco/Hallmann/Spencer/under 2.5 in Yahya/Bedford +6950
0.1u Pacheco/Hallmann/Pepey/Alcantara +1072

Don't really like the look of much tonight but will probably join you guys in fading Dashon Johnson. I remember him looking fairly lost in his debut when it the ground and Pepey has some decent jiu jitsu. Only thing that puts me off slightly is that you can see big improvements very quickly with good athletes but thats an unknown variable so the line looks good.

1 unit at -155

Something that people don't factor into their analysis enough IMO, very much agreed.

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My action for the UFN 51 & WSOF 13 tonight:

UFN 51 Risk $649.25

Arlovski wins by 5 round decision (+800) $25.00 for $200.00
Piotr Hallmann +3½ (-160) vs Gleison Tibau $64.00 for $40.00
Santiago Ponzinibbio (+105) vs Wendell Oliveira Marques $40.00 for $42.00
Larissa Pacheco (-115) vs Jessica Andrade $57.50 for $50.00
Jessica Andrade +3½ (-180) vs Larissa Pacheco $45.00 for $25.00

Godofrodo Pepey (-145) vs Dashon Johnson $72.50 for $50.00
George Sullivan (+145) vs Igor Araujo $50.00 for $72.50
Francisco Trinaldo _175) vs Leandro Silva $70.00 for $40.00
Paulo Thiago (+160) vs Sean Spencer $25.00 for $40.00
Paulo Thiago +3½ (-215) vs Sean Spencer $53.75 for $25.00
Bedford/Yahya Under 2½ (-140) $56.50 for $40.00

Parlays:
Hallman/Tibau Over 2½ (-210) + Escudero/Santos Over 2½ (-195) $15.00 for $18.50
Hallman/Tibau Over 2½ (-210) + Sullivan/Araujo Over 2½ (-180) $15.00 for $19.44
Hallman/Tibau Over 2½ (-210) + Thiago/Spencer Over 2½ (-195) $15.00 for $18.50
Escudero/Santos Over 2½ (-195) + Sullivan/Araujo Over 2½ (-180) $15.00 for $20.30
Escudero/Santos Over 2½ (-195) + Thiago/Spencer Over 2½ (-195) $15.00 for $19.33
Sullivan/Araujo Over 2½ (-180) + Thiago/Spencer Over 2½ (-195) $15.00 for $20.30

--

WSOF 13 Risk $311.00

Cody Bollinger/Marlon Moraes Over 1½ (-176) $176.00 for $100.00
Keon Caldwell/Ozzy Dugulubgov Over 1½ (-140) $35.00 for $25.00

Parlay:
Emanuel Newton (-650) at Bellator 124 + Antonio Silva (-426) at UFN 51 + Marlon Moraes (-500) at WSOF 13 $100.00 for $70.96

Think you are in for a very solid card sir.

Unfortunately won't watch this card until sometime tomorrow , so gl all. Hopefully peppy can win this one. As long as he doesn't do something stupid (which isn't out of the real of possibilities) should be a easy profit.

update
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hunt-152
arlovski+372 2 units

http://gfycat.com/PointlessImportantClam
http://gfycat.com/PointlessImportantClam
Nice body shot KO by Daley at Bamma today.

Looking forward to seeing him back in the US, he has a decent chance at the belt now askren has gone.

Beautiful sub!

Would def. like to see him back. tbh it's been like 5 years I think Dana should forgive that late punch on Koscheck. In fact a rematch between the 2 would draw some good drama/ratings.

Hallman +200

back at it after a month layoff of sports bet.

Unfortunately UFC has missed the boat now.....

Bellator contracts are watertight, so many great fights taken from the fans!

Interesting story I read today about Woodley-Lombard and Matt Brown.

Cliffs run sort of like this. Dana asks Woodley after his quick victory over Kim in Asia if he'd want to be in the Main Event vs. Hector Lombard in Australia for the November card. Woodley says no due to being a sometimes training partner with Lombard. Dana explains that 3 of the top 5 WW's all somewhat train together but they are going to have to fight. Woodley isn't swayed. Dana asks Lombard how he'd feel about fighting Woodley and explains why Woodley doesn't want to fight him. Lombard says he's a phony and he'd love to kick his ass. Dana tells Woodley what Lombard says to see if he's now willing to ignore "his friendship". Woodley still declines claiming he needs to protect his 'brand'. Dana says got luck to you buddy.

Dana calls Matt Brown and asks him and Matt agrees right away.
Dana gets a phone call from Joe Silva who starts panicking that he just got off the phone with Browns management who says that Matt Brown isn't even medically cleared to fight due to his injured hand. Dana laughs and says he loves Brown for trying to step up to any challenge and regards him as the 'Chuck Lidell' of the WW division for his willingness to fight anyone at anytime... even if he was injured and wouldn't be legally able to.

Nice I hit my square parlay of Spencer and Alcantara.

Adding one prop for the main.........Arlovski KO +800 lol