Quote:
Originally Posted by wpd5
Got Spencer at -167 and -175 already, he should have too big a speed and cardio adv. Also Thiago has never been good. Plan to add more if i can get 180 or better.
thinking I like:
Yahya +140 Seems like more of a flip and being in Brasil should help Yahya
Araujo -165 Araujo is good on the ground and can keep a good pace. His striking is mediocre but he backs opponents up and shoots takedowns on the cage. He also pulls guard off his stuffed shots and has swept multiple time in both his UFC fights. Sullivan looked pretty weak in clinch/grappling exchanges with Rhodes, and he moves north/south on the feet and that isnt great if you are trying to avoid tds. Think Araujo gets this to the ground enough.
Pepe -150. Johnson has 8 rd1 wins, those 8 opponents have 2 wins combined, 1 split dec win over a 12-12 fighter, and an ass kicking in his UFC debut. Pepe has fought real fighters and has some decent wins. This seems like a great spot.
Hallman +200 Tibaus muscles are all show and he is getting old. Hallman should be able to win a dec or split dec more than enough to cover the line.
Pretty much matches my analysis
I'm very tempted to fire big on Pepey, Dashon has no wins over anyone good and even his high school friend who I know says he expects him to get his ass kicked in the UFC and not get any wins. He has also said Dashon is absurdly athletic even for a pro, but skillset wise I just can't see him beating Pepey more than a third of the time
Very tempted to fire Araujo too he's impressed me in his last few from memory and Sullivan doesn't quite have the same resume
Not touching a Tibau fight regardless but I would have had this closer with Tibau being maybe -140 so if I were to bet it would have been on Hallmann
Also agree that Bedford/Yahya is a flip.
I haven't made any bets yet but i'm likely to do something like 2u Pepey, 1u Araujo and maybe a bunch of small parlays on the other fighters I like to win. A couple cards ago i'd have probably gone 5u on Pepey but I want to go a bit smaller until i've had a couple winning cards and got some confidence back.