Man ya that sounds like a juicy one to me. Only thing is Romero is a dumb **** and Kennedy usually fights really smart.

jon1001 you completely missed the point of my post lol.

I like Umalatov as a dog aswell, and am really liking the story line. although I have to do slot more research before firing on it.

For the upcoming card I like Yahya at +145. Can't really list all the reasons now, but I had him in there first fight and was really happy about it... Will go back and look through everything before making a bet though.

Also love Peppy vs Dashon at -170Looks like I missed the opener though. Dashon is terrible. I cashed out big by fading him in his last fight (although his opponent over preformed too). Peppy on the other hand had his first good showing ever. Winning the first two minutes vs a real prospect, and landing a beauty knee that sent my money flying in the wind.

I'm not convinced Dashon is a better boxer or wrestler, despite the experience. Peppy certainly will have better cardio and BJJ though, as well as more octagon experience. Seems solid to me.

This - I hate betting on fighters who fight dumb. Tim Kennedy got owned by Roger Gracie until he gassed, but he fought smart came back and won, beat Bisping through good gameplanning and is generally a better fighter than his skillset would make you think. Romero should dispatch him with ease but I doubt he will, he makes a habit of losing rounds then landing some random KO or whatever, sometimes Romero looks like a potential champ other times he looks barely UFC caliber. I'd actually lean Kennedy as a dog here despite Romero theoretically matching up amazingly with him because as mentioned, Romero is a dumbass when it comes to fight IQ

and yeah, I understood what mo was talking about and your rebuttal didn't really reference anything he said

If you put Tim Kennedy's brain in Yoel Romero's body you'd have a top 5 contender

It comes down to smart fighter vs more physically gifted/explosive fighter

I agree with all of this I think. Out of curiosity yoyobo would you take the over or under 2.5 at evens in Yahya/Bedford?

It also seems like Pepey ITD could be worth a play depending on price given Dashon doesn't really have BJJ and if Pepey gets him down or hurts him standing he should be able to sub him whereas Dashon's only chances are LnP and avoid sweeps/subs or to land something big standing early

On an unrelated note i'm very tempted to take Cruz by Decision against Mizugaki if it's close to evens given he isn't a huge finisher, Mizugaki is tough and game and the fight is 3 rounds plus coming off layoff Cruz isn't likely to take too many risks to finish if he's winning which unless the layoff and surgery has destroyed him as a fighter is likely despite Mizugaki's improvement. Like it or not, Cruz is still probably the GOAT at BW for the time being, unless Barao can win the title back and defend it or Dillashaw can string 5+ title defenses together including a win over Cruz and a Barao rematch plus avenging his 'loss' to Assuncao (he won 29-28 but it was close)

feel free to explain it?

Would be a champ rather than top 5

Romero has looked better in each fight and I think his fight IQ is improving. Doesn't matter how clever Kennedy is here he holds no advantage.

i definitely don't need to keep going with this if people aren't interested, but it directly references exactly what mo said. like . . . point by point

I liked your breakdown tbh

The first paragraph in your big post is barely intelligible but from what I can glean you think I compared Nelson or Hunt to Sanchez? Because that's not at all what happened. So, yeah, I think you definitely missed the point of it, was pretty clearly worded also so not sure I can explain much more clearly.

Also tired of people attacking the straw man of me saying Hunt is just a brawler and isn't a great kickboxer. Because I literally said like 3x he is a more skillful kickboxer.

Also, again, I rewatched multiple Hunt fights and his movement falls off significantly after the first round. Plain as day.

Can anybody see any way that Takenori Sato (the Japanese can who got stomped by Erick Silva) could possibly beat Hyun Gyu Lim? Lim has good wrestling BJJ and striking. He has a hell of a chin as we saw in Saffiedine fight and lots of heart. I just don't see it. I think he might be a bigger favourite than Mighty Mouse is over Cariaso honestly

He did beat Kuunimoto a couple years back but Kuunimoto's done way better since and he has no other wins over UFC caliber fighters and a lot of losses to nobodies. Also, Kuunimoto is fighting Richard Walsh, a TUF reject (granted he's not totally awful but he's not very good either) and Sato is fighting Hyun Gyu Lim, an arguably top 20 guy.

Also, I just checked fightmatrix and Lim is ranked 79 there at WW. 79. After that close fight with Saffiedine who is ranked 16 and should arguably be higher (i'd have Saff at 13ish personally)

For the record that puts him below such greats as KJ Noons, a bunch of Cage Rage nobodies, a few Bellator guys who have lost 2 of their last 3, Lyman Good who lost his fight to get into the TUF House and James Head who lost 3 of his last 5

Hey why is Bedford a favorite over Yahya?

And I pretty much like anyone with a functioning body to beat Paulo Thiago at this point. -165 looks tempting.

Yahya's smaller, not super athletic and Bedford has better striking I guess plus I guess Bedford 'won' the first fight by KO, granted from a clash of heads

I think the fight's closer to a flip though and would take either guy as the dog and in Brazil you have the like the Yahya price more

hey listen, could be that I'm coming off as a dick, but I'm just critiquing your hunt analysis b/c i think it's off. I'm totally open to having my mind changed. you wrote four paragraphs, but seemed to only make the points that hunt is going to stand and trade and nelson has the superior chin. That point seems pretty off in its mischaracterization of how both fighters fight.

I'm not sure how I'm attacking a strawman since I'm responding directly to your points, but whatever. dead point unless someone else wants to exchange ideas.

Yahya's made a career of taking guys down that he "shouldn't" have been able to take down...I didn't catch the first fight though so I could be off here.

The straw man is how people are making it seem like I'm characterizing Hunt as an unskilled brawler when that's not at all the case. Nowhere did I say he doesn't have excellent slipping ability. Nowhere did I say he wasn't a more skilled mover and thrower of punches. My whole point was people are simply looking at the two fighters, mentally checking off a box that says "Better striker? Hunt." Without regard to how they might actually engage each other. The Sanchez analogy clearly went over your head, was only trying to point out that it's an overly simplistic way of analyzing things here.

Nobody really knows what a fight is going to look like most of the time. I'm only trying to point that especially after round 1 this might look a lot like two guys throwing hay at each other, in which case this is even money, if not favoring Nelson and that's IF Nelson can't get a takedown.

I'm not trying to attack your capping, nor your strawman. I tried to respond directly to your claims as written. I am trying to provide you with the very thing you say Hunt supporters are lacking, analysis. Particularly concerning how they will engage each other as individual fighters. Your Sanchez analogy might have gone over my head. I don't participate here that much and had no idea what you were referring to, but even your clumsy analogy doesn't really correspond to my more in depth response.

After round one, I do not think this will devolve into haymakers b/c i Hunt and Roy's styles don't really lend themselves to that kind of fight. You have a non-combo big overhand puncher against a guy who prefers not to lead. I don't see who's going to be the one pushing the pace. I personally think if this thing goes much past 8 minutes, it's going to be a lot of feints, deep breaths, and wall clinch fighting.

If roy gets hunt down, i follow you. But you're kind of making a handwavy argument again and trying to pass it off as analysis. I know less about their respective take down games b/c i really like striking so that's what I follow, but Hunt has gotten better at staying up, and roy has pretty mediocre takedowns. how did either of those things factor into your cap %?

I'm legit trying to learn how to cap better.

To be fair Mo you did make out Hunt's standup is a lot more basic then it is, this quote sounds more like Chris Leben or Wanderlai Silva but I think Hunt is a lot better striker then that. Enough has been said about it but I see Jon's point. Not trying to start a childish argument but I did think your analysis was pretty bad but its a betting forum so obviously everyone is going to have different opinions.

Although I hate to read any too personal debate itt I really do enjoy reading peoples perspectives about match ups etc.

Romero with the right game plan should easily beat Kennedy. Kennedy looks tiny for MW and Romero would be a big LHW. His issue is fight IQ. I heard once that he doesn't mind being taken down because he knows he has the wrestling ability to stand right back up. That might be true but you lose points with the judges. Quite a few of these Cuban specimens are training in Florida and I think they'd be better off in a different environment with less egos/bravado and learn to fight smart.

Still I'd take Romero at -160.

As per Hunt/Nelson... there is just some fights it's better off not betting and simply enjoying the show. Def. could be as good as Bigfoot/Hunt.

Irony of these arguments is that nelson could easily just take down and sub hunt. He's a legit grappler but doesn't bother using it....

Old but interesting: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2dj5xMeXybs

And this favors Nelson, especially because the more they clinch the more likely he is to get that trip takedown.

I love Mark Hunt's standup, I think his speed, accuracy, and head movement are impressive. I just don't think he's going to go out there and stick and move for 5 rounds, especially considering his movement gets quite a bit worse after the first.

We will see how bad my analysis is in a few weeks for sure. Hopefully, Hunt comes out looking good so I can get a nice live price on Nelson

And yeah, Nelson is a pretty skilled grappler. Hunt has shown himself to be pretty damn aware and ready of takedowns, but most of the guys he's been dealing with (Rothwell/Kongo/Silva) are double-leggers, interested to see how he responds to Nelsons trips. If Nelson even goes for any, we all know he loves a good slugfest...

Hunts TDD and ground game has improved vastly, beside isn't it more difficult to trip-take-down shorter chubby fighters? Feel like they should have a good balance, though I wouldn't be surprised to see Nelson perhaps land his trips in 2nd round and forward when they are a bit more tired.

Think mo is right here.

Despite Roy's fantastic chin, if Hunt cracks with with a uppercut or hook when Roy is over extending for the right hand, fight over.

Roy could take hunt down. (let's not get crazy with his TDD here). The if this fight hits the ground it should be over within 2minutes.

However I see the most likely scenario is to see two giant exhausted guys in the octagon throwing big shots, seeing who will drop first. Then when it comes down to whose chin will hold up, I gotta go with Roy.

Yeah I probably would at evens. I hate o/ u's though. I'm so terrible at them.

Peppy probably wins ITD more than he doesn't, but I think there is enough value at the current line, that straight up is the way to go

Think I may tail you on that if the line is decent.

Remember though that Struve had mount on Hunt like a couple of times and he couldn't finish the fight there.

Hunt also got the mount on Fedor back in his peak... although Fedor might have been just playing with him. I think Hunts better off his back then many give him credit for. But by the same token I recall Nelson being able to hold Kimbo and Crocop on their backs for the whole round.

It's hard to say whether Nelson would be able to hold Hunt down... but even if he could there's a good chance that Nelson will keep it on the feet to keep the fight fun for the fans/bravado.