Quote:
Originally Posted by Balla Shusher
You need to stop betting MMA imho, your locks lose, talk mma all you like but keep your money in your pocket or you bank account. You may a whole load of stuff about mma, but it don't convert. your talk does not equal profit.
I'm about breakeven lifetime which means if it were vig free i'd be up a bunch lifetime (i'm talking hundreds of units if all lines were vigfree +100/+100). It's not like i'm getting crushed, i'm down maybe 40 units this year almost all of which is over the last 4-5 cards (I think i'm 1-4 for winning cards in the last 5) and about half of that is on 2-3 fights where I crushed the closing line and lost, i'm probably as close to a breakeven bettor as you can be over a very large sample now of several years/thousands of bets. I'm definitely going to drop my bet sizes for a while, but I have not lost an amount of money that is significant to me, i'm a moderate winner lifetime overall lifetime across all sports (almost almost all of the profit is esports, but i'm up over 100u lifetime). If you look at the old best bet threads I was up 30something units over nearly 1000 bets with about half of my posted bets being on MMA.
For what it's worth i'd bet Chiesa -130 again if they were to fight tomorrow, and I beat the closing line by 80 points on my two largest bets last card both of which lost. If we count the closing Pinnacle line as sharp in general, i'm doing totally fine.
I'm not a particularly amazing mma bettor but i'm far from the worst on this forum and i'm also experiencing the downside of variance at the moment. That said, I won't be firing any multi-unit bets for the next couple cards most likely as a lot of unpredictable stuff has been happening and my analysis has been off in spots, I plan to stick to esports betting for large amounts for the next month or two and if I can string a few winning MMA cards together betting smaller amounts i'll fire again
I know yoyobo is a winning bettor and he agreed with me more strongly on anyone that Chiesa and results aside I still think we made the right call. I was wrong about how shot Overeem's chin was but fortunately didn't fire that, the only other recent fight I got totally wrong was Nog/Nelson, several of my other losses were simply a case of it being one of the 4 in 10 times or whatever that the other guy wins