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I really hope Machida opens as a dog

I won't take him as a favourite, but i'll definitely take him as an underdog. The only thing Shogun has over Machida is a better chin at this stage of their careers imo

Machida's being serially underrated after 'losing' to Rampage and being choked out by Jones in a fight where he was the only man who looked like he belonged in the octagon with Jones out of all of his opponents.

I would take him at evens over every LHW not named Jon Jones tbh

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06-13-2012 , 05:04 PM

#2477

just_mo

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Originally Posted by SwoopAE

I would take him at evens over every LHW not named Jon Jones tbh

I think I agree with this.

Hendricks/Kampmann even money. Hendricks IMO.

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06-13-2012 , 11:48 PM

#2478

T1LT3D

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What does everyone think of the winner of Machida/Bader facing Gustafsson and who you got?

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06-14-2012 , 12:05 AM

#2479

Machinehead

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Originally Posted by just_mo

Machida would prolly beat him at this point...Shogun looks to be deteriorating pretty alarmingly. Don't think I'll touch him against Vera even though thats an insanely winnable fight for him.

I don't see Shogun deteriorating at all. What are you basing that on? He looked as durable as humanly possible last time out.

Shogun is gonna destroy Vera. The only scary part about Shogun is he could walk into the fight with serious injuries since he never pulls out of fights. Other than that Vera doesn't have much of a chance.

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06-14-2012 , 02:07 AM

#2480

SwoopAE

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Originally Posted by T1LT3D

What does everyone think of the winner of Machida/Bader facing Gustafsson and who you got?

Gustafsson beats Bader, loses to Machida imo

He does match up better against Machida than most though.

Shogun should beat Vera pretty easily, which is a shame because I like Vera, but who knows with Shogun.

Vera should be getting his rematch with Thiago 'non human urine' Silva instead though imo and give Shogun someone a bit higher up the ladder (Rampage 2 would make a lot of sense for both fighters with the history it's an easy sell and they're both coming off a loss)

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06-14-2012 , 03:46 AM

#2481

ChrisV

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Further to the earlier discussion of riggage (or lack of) in MMA, check this graph out. These are the odds for Fedor Emelianenko in his fight with Pedro Rizzo, M-1 Global June 21, from open to present day:

This is M-1, not UFC. And maybe there's some reason for this I don't know about, although I couldn't find one Googling. But superficially it looks fixed as hell.

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06-14-2012 , 06:30 AM

#2482

SwoopAE

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Yeah I made some posts about Fedor being -230 or whatever a while back and he's like -1200 now

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06-14-2012 , 08:07 AM

#2483

ChrisV

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Interesting that there's speculation that this is Fedor's last fight. No reason to hide the fix if it's your last fight anyway. Doesn't get a lot more blatant than betting the line down to -1200.

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06-14-2012 , 03:56 PM

#2484

SwoopAE

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**** Fedor and his ****ty management.

If he's willing to accept a fix here then who knows what happened with his other fights in pride.

If he wouldn't come to the UFC to fight the best **** him.

JDS and Cain will be the two greatest HWs of all time anyway in a few years.

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06-14-2012 , 03:59 PM

#2485

SwoopAE

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On the surface, Rizzo is actually a tempting bet at +800 or whatever given Fedor's decline. Too high a chance the fight's fixed to touch it though. I never thought i'd say that about an MMA fight in a 'major' organisation (but lol at M1 being major I guess)

Hope Rizzo knocks him out. I was so happy when Werdum tapped Fedor. Idk why but something about him has always rubbed me the wrong way a bit. Maybe it's his pride fanboy fanbase, the same ones that rave about Shogun being the greatest LHW of all time constantly.

If JDS beats Cain a second time and then takes out Cormier, he'll be getting very close to laying claim to best HW ever.

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06-14-2012 , 05:24 PM

#2486

just_mo

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Originally Posted by Machinehead

I'm basing it on how slow he looked the last like 3 times he stepped into the cage.

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06-14-2012 , 05:34 PM

#2487

DannyOcean_

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The fedor situation:

to be fair, I'm pretty sure it was only a single ******ed book that opened at the just-silly line of -230, which makes the graph look crazy. I believe no other book ever had that line because Rizzo sucks, the fight is in russia and in M1.

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06-14-2012 , 06:28 PM

#2488

Gary Wise

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Originally Posted by just_mo

I'm basing it on how slow he looked the last like 3 times he stepped into the cage.

Ddi you not see rounds 4 and 5 of the hendo match?

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06-14-2012 , 06:59 PM

#2489

just_mo

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Did YOU not see that fight? Yes he showed strong will and chin.

But his movement was awful, if Hendo is landing on you with regularity, that's really, really bad.

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06-14-2012 , 08:24 PM

#2490

Machinehead

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Bisping has good movement and Hendo landed repeatedly. Fedor too.

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06-14-2012 , 11:17 PM

#2491

LasFuentes

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Lol rigtards. SI opened the line at -200ish and they're the type of book that limits you after winning one bet. They took it off after 2 days or so and reopened it. Regardless, the line is still off, Fed is value at anything below -5000.

The 2% loss rate should be broken down into 1.9% him losing from a cut, heart attack within the ring, twisting his ankle and any other miscellaneous. Then the remainder 0.1% of the time he will lose to Rizzo for any other reason other than a cut.

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06-15-2012 , 12:11 AM

#2492

just_mo

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Originally Posted by Machinehead

Bisping has good movement and Hendo landed repeatedly. Fedor too.

Hendo landed a few here and there. He wasn't tagging him with massive punches at will the way he did Shogun. Don't think the dude's knees are there any more.

Ross Pearson down to -195, can we expect that to keep dropping or do we jump on now?

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06-15-2012 , 01:57 AM

#2493

SwoopAE

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Pearsons -188 now

Gonna put a bit on now then hit it harder if he gets to -150 or so

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06-15-2012 , 02:02 AM

#2494

traz

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I'm feeling some value on guida. I kind of think he's a bad match up for Gray and can definitely win a guida-esque decision.

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06-15-2012 , 02:55 AM

#2495

SwoopAE

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I'm tempted as well not sure if ill do it though

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06-15-2012 , 10:34 AM

#2496

just_mo

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How is this a bad matchup for Maynard when he's better than Guida everywhere except submission offense?

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06-15-2012 , 02:04 PM

#2497

Gary Wise

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Has grey ever been taken down? if not, struggling to see a Guida path to victory.

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06-16-2012 , 05:30 AM

#2498

just_mo

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Ya can't see him winning outside of a bad judges' decision where he "outworks" aka wings punches at air repeatedly a la Leonard Garcia.

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06-16-2012 , 06:35 PM

#2499

traz

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meh Gray is better at striking and wrestling on paper but I'm not sure we'll actually see that on fight night. I think guida can negate him in both of those areas and win via energizer bunny.