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12-06-2023 , 02:32 PM

P_Nitti

centurion

Join Date: Jul 2014 Posts: 149

Dipping my toe in the waters of NBA props,
Figured I'd start by building a handicapping model and specializing in one category. Been having a great time handicapping and tracking individual player rebound results. Gonna use this season as a trial run to see if I can become profitable and make the leap into the real money world next year.

Having said that, here is the Question... What is a reasonable ROI for NBA player props?
(I'm guessing with a little effort, it's potentially higher than against the spreads for full games)

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12-11-2023 , 12:34 PM

P_Nitti

centurion

Join Date: Jul 2014 Posts: 149

So far - So good.
Total bets = 141 with 89 wins and 52 losses (63%). That makes for a 17.9% ROI.

Not even remotely sustainable right?

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12-13-2023 , 03:11 PM

kevstreet

Pooh-Bah

Join Date: Dec 2004 Posts: 4,613

Quote:

Originally Posted by P_Nitti

So far - So good.
Total bets = 141 with 89 wins and 52 losses (63%). That makes for a 17.9% ROI.

Not even remotely sustainable right?

Congratulations. I’m not a professional but these numbers are incredible. You’re on a heater, keep it going!

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12-17-2023 , 01:08 AM

P_Nitti

centurion

Join Date: Jul 2014 Posts: 149

2nd Update
225 Bets. 133 winners and 92 losers (59%). ROI = 10.6%

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12-19-2023 , 12:46 PM

P_Nitti

centurion

Join Date: Jul 2014 Posts: 149

Saw a recommendation of 1000 bets to get a true sense of expected winrate.

1st Quarter Results
256 bets with 148 wins and 108 losses = 58%.
Up 21.3 Units. ROI = 8.3%

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01-06-2024 , 01:39 AM

P_Nitti

centurion

Join Date: Jul 2014 Posts: 149

2nd Quarter Results
246 Bets with 138 wins and 108 losses = 56%
Up 12.9 Units. ROI = 5.2%

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01-28-2024 , 03:27 AM

P_Nitti

centurion

Join Date: Jul 2014 Posts: 149

3rd Quarter Results
242 Bets with 141 wins and 101 losses = 58%
Up 26.2 Units. ROI = 10.8%

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02-02-2024 , 01:19 AM

BK1248

Pooh-Bah

Join Date: Nov 2003 Posts: 3,773

post some picks and let me bet some

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02-16-2024 , 01:32 AM

P_Nitti

centurion

Join Date: Jul 2014 Posts: 149

Didn't quite get to 1,000 bets, but close enough. Looks like I was able to answer my own question!!
Now is a good time to wrap up the data collecting and use the time during the All star break to study it thoroughly!

4th Quarter Results
226 Bets with 116 wins and 110 losses = 51%
Down 7.3 Units. ROI = -3.2%

Overall Results
970 Bets with 543 wins and 427 losses = 56%
Up 53.1 Units. ROI = 5.5% overall

Was at ROI = 7.0% until the last week (separate post coming out about that).

Last edited by P_Nitti; 02-16-2024 at 01:56 AM.

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02-16-2024 , 03:09 PM

#10

Adult Poogs

newbie

Join Date: Sep 2023 Posts: 28

My prop ROI was always around 10-15% when I was doing this full time a while back. Its gotten a lot tougher since DFS came out. I think anything over 5% is great.

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