https://fb.watch/8wuXCUiBDg/

WTF just signed up to ESPN+ and logged in but when i try to watch todays ufc i i just get an AD saying i need to get an ESPN+ subscription. Which i already have. I know my sub is valid as its a bundle and i just watched black widow on disney+ Posting here because the whole point is i want to watch todays UFC. Ok well actually it happens no matter what i try to watch

NVM works after activating hulu

thanks

If they wanted to race bait they'd probably take the opposite approach. I've never noticed this tendency fwiw. smaller weight classes are almost all hispanic so it's inevitable that they'll get matched at a high frequency.

Ok so at HW right now using black fighters as an example we have OSP, Harris, Lewis, Ngannou, Gane, Blaydes, Hardy, Rozenstruik, Overeem, Mayes, Baudot, Tuivasa, Nascimento

Not sure if Tuivasa counts here as he is Aboriginal Australian, Nascimento has darker skin and is Brazilian etc but let's just assume they do

Looking at active roster list Overeem isn't there but let's assume he is for purposes of fights on UFC roster since it's recent etc and i'm not counting people yet to debut. Just realised I left out DC too but he's retired so w/e i'll leave him off for now along with any recently retired fighters of other ethnicities

Including Overeem since recent cut etc that's 44 HW fighters on the roster, 13 of whom could be described as black (or maybe 11-12 depending on their own definition I have no idea if Tuivasa and Nascimento identify as black or not)

so since they can't fight themselves approximately 1 in 4 of their fights should be against other black fighters on average in the UFC

OSP - lot of his fights at HW, has fought 5 black fighters out of 24 so pretty close to par, just under

Harris - 1/16 so he's at less than 'average'

Lewis 4/22 feels like more for some reason since 4 of his last 9 opponents were black but the 13 before that weren't. Again a bit under par

Ngannou - 6/13, if we include the upcoming Gane fight that'd be 7/14 so he has the highest ratio so far and about double the 'average'

Gane - 3/7 so far, 4/8 if we include Ngannou so over the average

Blaydes - 6/14 again over the average by a bit

Hardy - a few undefined here but gonna assume de Castro does count as black rather than hispanic here (no idea) and Tuivasa counts due to his aboriginal heritage - 4/9

Rozenstruik 4/9 over average

Overeem 4/20 slightly under average

Mayes 2/3 but small sample

Baudot 1/2 small sample

Tuivasa 1/8 less than average

Nascimento 2/3 more than average but small sample

Ok let's add DC for sample size again not all fights at HW though

Cormier 6/15 over average

Not by any means a big enough sample or real study but I was bored so there are some numbers I guess

49/165 in total so about 1 in 3.37 are against other black fighters vs about 1 in 4 in theory being average

So it's slightly more but not outlandishly when we consider that a lot of the fighters on the list are/were ranked at similar times and would have likely fought each other regardless

If someone wants to do the other weight classes they can obv not going to but I may at some stage if bored, and I guess there's also the variance of do certain Brazilian/Aboriginal Australian/etc fighters identify as black or not which may skew numbers too

There's also the factor of ethnicity and average weight, eg the average African American is a bigger guy than the average Asian or Hispanic, so you may end up with more fighters of the same ethnicity in the same weight classes on average for those reasons too

Costa getting the fight moved to 205 instead of 185 is a ridiculous advantage for him not having to cut after being overweight, hopefully he gets forced to move to 205 for missing weight by that much effectively

Maybe a stupid question but is “ref” in the far right column on the link below a sports book, and if so what’s the full name of it?

https://www.bestfightodds.com/#

They’re the only one that seems to book a lot of future unconfirmed fights.

Probably group of people related to some bookmaker or multiple bookies and they release early lines (not on actual sportsbook but to correct lines accordingly) Maybe I am totally off but "ref"s main goal could be just to get more accurate lines without risking Sharp money on shops and bookies.

Insane that Glover is now the lhw champ at his age

Going to bet heavy against him regardless of who he fights next. If Blachowitz gets an immediate rematch its probably going to be Ian -140 Glover +120

It's going to be Prochazka and he's either going to knock Glover out or get tapped if Glover can get him down

I actually haven't seen today's fights yet awful timezone for Aus gonna catch up on them midweek probably

Happy for Glover to achieve his dream but yeah he's unlikely to be a long term champ

Pretty crazy Glover and Charles Oliveira both become champs after being hyped early in their UFC runs, falling off top just 'random gatekeeper' status then working their way back to the belt

Marlon vera is a steal

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can someone pm a link

Would also appreciate a link, my usual is not working.

this is the water of life

I dont know if holloway is a poker player, but he’s certainly not the type of guy who will lockdown on a win in the middle of his session.

-jpp

Good call.

Nice score!

You really think it was a good call? Not to be rude but to me it was pure luck. That wasn’t the Amanda Nunes I’ve seen before. She literally fought the worst possible. Maybe the trash talk got in her head, idk. The whole thing was weird. From Peña dancing during Nunes walk out to Amanda’s post fight speech acting like she didn’t gaf that she lost.


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i know you made an effort to phrase that respectfully but swoop isn't a button clicker

Let me show you some more Amanda Nunes you've probably never seen before then.



Direct Link

Refresh my memory, how many years ago was that? It’s not even relevant.


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Wasn’t trying to be rude nor badmouth but I just don’t see it. She got tapped by GDR. But fair enough.


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Wow that's an old post. And it applied to the previous version of Nunes, not the dominant champ version. People forget Nunes used to fade and gas, and deep down I guess that was still there just overlooked because of all of Nunes's strengths. I did and do rate Pena a lot, but sadly didn't fire her this weekend (although i've bet her in a lot of her fights, and am up betting on her fights overall). That said, I didn't fire Nunes either, and have in some of her recent fights in various capacities, I did think Pena was live for a late sub. Thought it would come later in the fight if it did though, and obv thought current Nunes was the fav although not necessary the -1000 or whatever she was at. I thought about the +700 or so on offer and ended up passing sadly. Gotta trust that old read.

Assuming Pena is clean the amount of muscle she added is insane she's always been huge for the weight class and looked enormous IRL early in her career the time I met her briefly at Lagasses and her shoulders just looked like she was even stronger than Nunes somehow this fight

Pena just matched Nunes physically, someone no one else has been able to do, and only maybe Cyborg could do previously (and Cyborg just got lit up in the standup instead)

Pena made some great adjustments in round 2, and now deservedly holds the belt

Crazy journey for the 'sacrificial lamb' being fed to #1 seed Shayne Baszler in the first TUF fight of the season. Super happy for Pena.

Was a great card tbh entertainment wise and also went 3-1 for bets (had O'Malley r1 TKO, Tuivasa and Cruz in wins, and Ponz who lost)

Fwiw not doing a ton of MMA betting compared to years ago so my knowledge is probably slightly worse than it was than in say 2016, although my overall betting knowledge is infinitely better/been doing it full time since 2015 now etc but my focus has moved on to other sport. Will still bet a few fights per card, but at small stakes compared to the various other sports i'm betting

I do feel like getting Tuivasa at pick'em odds was spot of the card though and was my biggest bet so that felt good. If he lost the weight and trained at AKA full time instead of eating all the KFC he has a pretty high ceiling because he has chin, power and decent hands and now he's working on his wrestling too. Not gonna beat Ngannou or Gane, but live against anyone else in the division