I'm on Weili Zhang at -175 (bet3 65) 1.75u to win 1u

I think she will absolutely dominate Namajunas, Weili can take a hard punch to give 2 and is more technical.

Rose looked great vs Andrade on her last fight but she already had the blueprint from their previous fight where she was easily winning until she got slammed (that adjustment Andrade did in mid air is one of the most impressive things I have seen).

Weili also has a much more professional team behind that can help her win in a 5 round fight. In a 3 round fight Rose might be able to win a close split decision but on a 5 round fight the champ's team can make plenty of adjustments. Rose has basically Pat Barry that gives 0 technical advise and is basically a cheer leader. Unless she is a front runner Barry won't be able to help her make any adjustments.

think weili is the clear bet. don't trust rose to deal with anyone that physical for 5 rounds. andrade breaks her every time if its 5 rounds, don't see how weili doesn't do the same. weili isn't invincible though, she did get dropped by danielle taylor, but yeah clear weili bet here imo. don't know why you think rose doesnt have a camp. shes with trevor wittman's squad which is one of the best atm. not sure if its elevation or what its called but its legit for sure.

Rose gonna pick Weili apart standing. The price looks pretty good. Joe Pulaski needs to get off Andrade's nuts already. Everyone knows she has nothing for Thug Rose.

Accumulator: 5-Fold, 1 x line @ 32.92/1
Hide selections
Kelvin Gastelum - Winner @ 2/1
Whittaker v Gastelum
Tue Apr 13 2021 17:31:19
Drakkar Klose - Winner @ 11/10
Klose v Stephens
Tue Apr 13 2021 17:31:19
Andrei Arlovski - Winner @ 4/6
Arlovski v Sherman
Tue Apr 13 2021 17:31:19
Ricardo Ramos - Winner @ 1/1
Ramos v Algeo
Tue Apr 13 2021 17:31:19
Luis Pena - Winner @ 8/13
Munoz v Pena
Tue Apr 13 2021 17:31:19

Bet Type:
Multi Bet
Total Stake
20.00
Estimated Returns
678.46

the big fight! over 1.5 cortez by d looking out for the wise eyes :-)
keeping that rec on the up and up, ant no way!

I have money in SIA and bet3 65 so gonna arb this Jake Paul (+100 @ SIA) and Askren (+150 @ 365) fight for hopefully a 0.6u profit.

Boxing is extra crooked but haven't seen any line movement like that last Tyson fight to expect a draw here. There is also tons of incentives ($$$) to get Paul to win this so he can go and challenge McG and other celebrities. I think either Askren KOs him in the later rounds, Paul wins by decision or by robbery. I highly doubt they draw here.

Fingers crossed, fook I love Boxing but hate Boxing betting.

No I didn't mean no camp just that in her corner during fights Pat Berri turns into a cheerleader and is non stop screaming his guts out every fight.

What I meant to say is that if adjustments must be made Weili's corner is much more composed and can deliver, if Rose gets in trouble Pat Berri will just shout louder sweet nothings.

I actually think the other way around. Most likely its gonna be Paul by KO, Askren by decision, or much less likely draw or Paul by robbery.

I hit Askren pretty hard (for me at least) when he got to +170... if I lose whatever, but if it's remotely on the up and up, I just don't see Askren taking a payday just to lose to this guy... if he gets his ass whopped, it'll be worth the shock value

Why wouldn't Askren do that? He took a wrestling match vs Jordan Burroughs 2 years ago he had no chance of being competitive in and lost 11-0. He's set to make $500k which alone is more than he ever got paid for a fight in the UFC. If he gets any percentage of the ppv points then he's going to make out extremely well.

comparing Burroughs wrestling, to Paul's boxing ability is night and day. I don't think he gets any of the PPV buys

I don't think he gets any of the PPV buys either. I also don't think he gets a win bonus. $500k is plenty to make it worth it for Askren. He's doing this for his family, plain and simple. My point regarding Burroughs was simply that Askren doesn't have an ego in regards to things like this. He's fully happy to give it his all and take a loss.

Of course Paul's boxing isn't comparable to Burroughs wrestling but neither is Askren's boxing comparable to Askren's wrestling. I fully expect to see a wide discrepancy in skill between Paul and Askren. Askren will have to make it a very ugly match to be competitive and I'm very skeptical he can do that.

Thoughts on Whittaer +220 TKO/KO? I know Gastelum hasn't been finished but I see Whittaker clearly being better at everything and in a 5 round fight that is going to primarily be standup with a guy that has Whittaker's power/offense then I think that line is a little high. Seems largely based on recent results where Gastelum hasn't been KO'd and Whittaker has mostly needed the distance but those were all specific scenarios where Whittaker wasn't as big a fav/had as big an edge.

Does Whittaker really have that big of an edge though? Seems like this as expensive as Whittaker's been in a while and about as cheap as Gastelum has been in a while. Hell, Gastelum was less of an underdog against Adesanya.

I think it is questionable if his edge is that big but I do think him by decision vs TKO/KO gap just isn't that wide in a 5 round fight that is going to be all standup. These two should generate some fireworks a little more than Whittaker/Till

Drakkar Klose suffered a bruised ego when Stephens nearly shoved him into orbit at the weigh-ins. Fight has been cancelled.

You're in great company with that pick. Phil Hellmuth has Whitaker winning inside the distance (even though he doesn't know what that means). He got it at +225.

You were right. Whittaker outclassed him everywhere including in the wrestling. If Gastelum didn't have that ridiculous chin he probably would have been knocked out multiple times.

picking gastelum to get finished has to be one of the squarest mma bets going.

Can't be as bad as anyone who bet on Funky Ben Askew, amirite?



https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pXr0oq9wyfM

askren was fat as hell.

as a sports bettor, I have never woken up the following day after a loss, and still feel this damn stupid... I AM a damn fool!

well played Dream Crusher, well played!

God even my girlfriend that doesn't know **** noticed this lol

he looked so bad. I almost died when Snoop said he was "built like a bag of milk" rofl that **** was hilarious.

For next event things are looking good, as posted got 1.75u on Weili Zhang at -175, line has moved into the -245 and got 1.15u on Uriah Hall at -115, line has moved to -125.

I'm also jumping early on the following fights, both at SIA:

Beneil Dariush (-155) 1.55u
Charles Oliveira (-115) 1.15u

Will try to post my observations on all these fights before the events.

Good luck everyone! hope to make it 3 profitable events in a row let's make that $$$

Dariush fight is purely gonna depend on whether Tony is legit washed (in which case Dariush wins) or not. I lean towards him being washed but he claims 'bad camp' etc last time so idk

Dariush is so offensively talented, but hittable and chinny. I've bet on him a LOT recently after fading him a bit earlier in his career, overall i've done pretty well on his fights. This one is tough but I think i'd rather back him than fade him.

Was happy to see Whittaker win, he's still very live against Adesanya in the rematch especially if he remembers 'hey I can wrestle better than Izzy can; hang on the feet but look to set up takedowns'

Anyone have any leans for this weekend?

Feels like Anthony Smith +190 is a steal. A lot of value Crute is ass.

Uriah Hall's line moved to +100 on 365 so adding 0.45u on that, I firmly believe one jab will crumble Weidman.