jones at 11/6 is good... .
i have that going jones by d win, tyson will try to get jones out of there rd1 obv then its going to be jones taking over more and more, once the storm is over the timings will be pretty easy for roy imo, 11/6 is good

no idea how ostovich made weight but good for her

hopefully all the fighters have a good night tonight and come out of the cage safe and sound having had a good personal performance.

Holly holm has that great routine of constant motion to get the flow going, get your beast awake, take the focus to were it needs to be

Looking for a rebound with a full night sweat tonight. Let's go!

.5u Maness +115
.3u Mudaerji ko +130
.3u Pearce +250
1u Mazany -188
.5u Day dec +110
1u Evans-Smith -143
Carlyle-Algea 1u to go distance +110
1u sato +170
.5u Parisian itd -143
1u Smith -133
Smith-Clark 1u over 3.5rds +100

lol wtf was that

knocked the guy out and then gets choked

Annoying Sanders managed to lose after lighting him up for the whole fight

Nice win for Mujajeri tko and Mazany has this one too locked up barring randomly getting subbed or whatever now so will be 2-1 for the card in a minute here

Got some Jones +175 in the boxing immediately felt dirty but its way off market lol hopefully Tyson is just done after a round and gasses quickly

Didn't expect a finish for Mazany so that was a nice win although she was headed to a 30-27 anyway

Ostovich was dominating right up until the bell rung for R1

She has some physical strength but isn't at all a UFC level fighter

Small Pearce bet as a dog just trusting the steam and want a sweat

gl all

Pearce win was nice but also got Evans Smith here which isn't promising after two rounds

She does have three r3 finishes would be cool lol

Ended up almost exactly even for the card. Went 4-3, lost on Sanders, Evans-Smith and Carlyle, won on Mudajeri KO, Smith ITD, Pearce and Mazany but ran pretty bad with sizing and didn't have much on Pearce/had a lot on Evans-Smith stupidly

Anyway onto the next card I guess. Some decent entertainment today considering it was a weak card on paper

I've had less success chasing steam in MMA relative to other sports. Not sure if it's a sample size thing or a unique dynamic of the sport. Anyone care to comment?

I've decided to expand a bit on what may make the pricing unique in MMA. I'm sure you are all familiar with the following dynamic. Consider the following fight priced:

Fighter A: -200
Fighter B: +165

And then the fight occurs and by all appearances it seems that fighter A would actually win about 990/1000 (99%) because of their dominance. (Assuming the fight could be simulated from the start at identical conditions)

It appears to me that the pricing skews seem to be wider in MMA than other sports leagues. For example, in the NBA, if the Warriors were playing the Cavs in the finals and favored at about -200, and the teams played 1000 times, a 99% win rate for them is nearly statistically impossible. Hence theoretical price skews could be more substantial in UFC. Which is perhaps why I've found chasing steam is less effective.

Just a theory though.

I don't think the closing line in MMA is as efficient as other liquid markets, there are often times where I think the market gets it completely wrong. However over a big enough sample size would expect it to be profitable.

Sure somebody on here has looked into it from memory.

It's still profitable but not as profitable as certain other sports

Odds in a Connor vs Jake Paul boxing match? Connor -150 sound right? Odds of it actually happening? +300?

Went 6-5, but down about 1/2u cause the bets I won were generally .5u or .3u.

Fun night of fights though. Especially enjoyed the Kamaka-Pearce, Maness-Sanders, and Carlyle-Algeo fights. Letdowns were Sato, Parisian (I still hate HW MMA fights - should just avoid them), and Evans-Smith.

I don't know the difference between Jake Paul and Logan Paul but it seems that if Conor wants to do boxing there are way bigger money draws than Jake Paul for him to box. Jake Paul should maybe stick to calling out Dillon Danis, Ben Askren, and any other MMA fighter that has no boxing ability whatsoever.

-150 would seem bet the house, your parents house, the remortgage value of both houses and every penny in your bank account territory. That being said, the fight has a basically 0% chance of ever happening.

Yeah I mean Conor can't beat Floyd Mayweather but he's at least -1000 against Jake Paul in boxing. Paul would have a size advantage I think but if Conor bulks a bit for it or even if he doesn't really, he's big enough to put Paul out cold the first time he connects with a shot, he's not some random can like the guys Paul has been fighting, sure he's not a boxer either but he knows how to throw a punch and has some actual technique etc

Same reason Mark Hunt is going to wreck Paul Gallen in the boxing next month, Gallen is a few years younger but he's been fighting random NRL/AFL players and random amateur plumbers and cans like that, Mark Hunt may not be a boxer but he is a legitimate combat sports athlete even if he's old and washed up and Hunt will just wreck him

Would it even be sanctioned? Conor is probably -5k or something.

Idk wasnt Paul a Cruiserweight so has a size edge? And Conor is technically 0-1 as a pro boxer

I think they could get it sanctioned. In MMA probably not with a good commission, but in boxing I don't see why not

Ya'll crazy. Floyd vs Conor was a way bigger mismatch.

In terms of size, Jake Paul is 6'1" and cut down to 189lbs for this last match. He would only have a couple inch reach advantage over McGregor. Paul is 23 years old and could get bigger (bulk up).

I think it would be closer than most of you think due to Paul’s size advantage. Mcgregor’s advantage over Paul is much, much less than Mayweathers over Connor.


Probably will never happen anyways.