Mixture of prices from +108 to +114

Granted that's in multis w/ a boost price with -50000 type 2nd legs a local of mine offers, with various other multi legs completed to go with it etc but the effective Whittaker price I got is something like +110 average. I believe the no-boost price was +105 when I fired my first/main bet.

Am on Khabib at -277 as well from an off market in person betting terminal.

Pretty happy with Whittaker +100 or better tho I think he's a small fav tbh i'd have taken -110 if I had to but got some nice numbers, if I didn't have a better price already i'd still bet him at current market price

Kind of wanted Rakhmanov as a dog and tempted by the under 2.5s on both HW fights but haven't fired either, was going to if it was smaller octagon but apparently it's the bigger octagon on fight island

Whittaker my biggest bet by a decent amount atm, then Khabib. Gonna add Khabib sub or dec as well, got a book with a nice price but think it'll stay so gonna wait til game day for higher limits

Added smaller 0.2u type bets on Tuivasa/Struve doesn't start r3 at -137 (i decided to buy til the end of r2 plus inbetween rounds instead of the u1.5 rounds as I think the finish will be late r2 a lot, but if we see r3 it's going the distance a ton)

Also took some Volkov/Harris doesn't go the distance at -149, I think it's 5050 if Volkov wins but if Harris wins it basically always ends ITD, so I think we're at least 60% for it to end ITD if we assume the match lines are sharp and it's say Volk 62.5% and Harris 37.5% to win, I think we get the finish a good 30% of the time when Harris wins plus 31.25% or so when Volkov does, which makes 61.25% and the breakeven point for 1.67 is 59.88% and I could be underselling Volkov's chances to finish (or I guess overselling Harris's) but the market does think Volkov is a bigger fav to finish than win by decision atm so I like it

Whittaker +110ish average
Khabib -277
Volkov/Harris doesn't go distance -149
Struve/Tuivasa doesn't start r3 -137

Even with the larger octagon i'd be shocked if we don't see a quickish finish in one of the two HW fights and I think they both end early more often than both going the distance and if I go 1-1 i'll take the small loss etc

Would like to see Struve tap Tuivasa and Harris KO Volk as a fan, but will obv take any outcome happily that wins the bets

What is the path to victory for Justin besides early k.o in 1 or 2 round? He said wrestling makes him very tired and it's seems unlikely that he will have better cardio than Khabib in later rounds. Bit silly thought but maybe Khabib didn't try too hard to take fight to ground in 3 round against Conor just to prove point on the feet to embarrass Mcgregor even more.

Khabib does take rounds off, so him being less active in round 3 does not surprise me, not sure we should be reading anything into it other than he went hard for 2 rounds and took a break.

Geathje is tough, no doubt about that. There's 2 ways to look at this, either his gas tank is better or Tony didn't push him, stand up is always easy, will Geathje be able to go 3-5 after Khabib takedowns and grappling?

Personally I don't think so, Khabib makes you tired, takes away the threats early on, so in round 1 and 2 he puts in on you and by the 3rd, he can stand with the most dangerous strikers because they simply don't have the strength to ko him anymore.

Geathje has a chance in rounds 1 and 2 imo. If he can actually stop the take downs, he might extend that to round 3 as Khabib will also get more tired than usual because he is made to work harder. With all that said, I simply can't see it, sure Gaethje talking a good game but Khabib's wrestling is on another level and Gaethje doesn't even wrestle in his fights but I'm suppose to believe that he's suddenly a world beater.

If you stop wrestling for years it will effect you, and sure he's been training but there's a difference in training and never using it and a guy who is only using wrestling in each UFC fight, a big difference.

With that said I do think this is Khabib's biggest test, Gaethje is is toughest opponent and we don't know if the wrestling will be nullified, I can say I don't think so but we will have to see. Styles make fights and Justin has good hands with good power, he can rock Khabib and who knows even finish him.

I'm a bit biased as I really want Khabib to go undefeated and become the undisputed goat!

I can see Khabib going hard again for the 1st 2 rounds, the reason is simple, he actually needs to go hard to tire is opponent and take the ko threat away, great strategy if you have the gas tank for it, which he clearly has.

With that said, we know Gaethje is a tough motha ****er, so I'm thinking the over 3.5 is value. Anything up to 3.5 imo, I can see Khabib taking round 3 off and prob finishing him in the 4th or 5th. Less likely a Khabib dec but still possible.

Got another lock bet imo. Who doesn't like free money...

I really like Casey Kenney to beat the British fighter. 1.6 odds, not to shabby, he's better everywhere and I think he has a speed advantage. Kenney scores more, is more aggro and will dictate the fight more, he will lead the dance. This fight will often go to the judges but my main bet is straight up for the win, not taking any chances.

And if you like parlays take this, I will give you all the winners , take note boysss.

-Kenney

-Alvarez, seems like a lock bet as well, though he did miss weight, so going smaller, his opponent is straight trash though

-Shavkat, I really like Cowboy, got a feeling this guy is going to do well though, lets see.

-Jung, just fading Alvey here.

-Struve fight, going back and forth, I kinda like the over 1.5 at 1.66. So not betting who wins, just taking the over 1.5

-Harris, think he gets this done, I like him in 3 rounds, I'd favor Volkov in 5.

-Murphy

-Ankalaev

- Hawes

- Cannonier

Good luck, lets get that cheddar

Added a little Shakirova +197, just off market price at soft book no real opinion on the fight but seems to be the steam side and it's a dog in WMMA so can't complain

Murphy is a solid hand but not a real contender or anything so if Shakirova is decent should be live

Is it just me or does anybody else think the guy manning the scale was suspect during Khabib's weigh in? It looked like the bar was still going up.. Khabib could be a good 3 to 5 lbs overweight the way how fast the bar was still moving up.

i don't see how you think alvarez is a lock. he's primarily a guard player. happily taking yakovlev at this price and hoping he doesnt fall into a triangle. joe duffys style is so outdated, boxing heavy all his weight on his front leg, so i don't know how much you can take away from that fight. alvaez was getting soundly outpointed by some italian bum in his debut before he found a sweep and a finish.

yeah that doesn`t look good. specially when the fighter requests a towel you are supposed to let the scale settle.

You did this last week too, picked every single favorite on the card, my god. I don't know if you caught the part where I raised you 2 underdogs a +115 and a +275, WINNING both and taking your lunch money.

edit- I now see 1 underdog, Walt Harris would much rather bet Harris wins in Round 1 at +450 than bet him at +150. Volkov probably the right side anyway just looking at the reverse indicator Bovada is, giving the best Price on Walt which means some of the dumbest book money on planet is piling into Walt. Historically you would be winning just fading bovada when they offer the best price.

Chimaev vs Edwards official. Looks like he gets the big step up and it should be a #1 contender fight now

No idea what the line opens at most books even money maybe? Looking now seems Betonline has chimaev -130 which is interesting. Hard to have an opinion on the fight when chimaev looks like khabib 2.0 but the best guy he's fought is meerschaert

I have posted plenty of dogs, just so happens last 2 cards I am picking favs. That;s just how it goes sometimes. I'm not going to pick dogs just because you feel like I'm picking too many favs, just like the other thread were you come of as a ****** illogical muppet, you doing the same **** over here.

We are not competing, at least I'm not. This is not personal for me, I don't give 2 ****s about you kid, get off my nuts already!

Stop following me and stop interacting with me.

My reasoning is that Alvarez is better on the feet, he's improved a ton since he fought Ismagulov on short notice and even in that fight he was still tagging him.

Yeah he is a submission expert but his stand up is getting stronger, the fact he was winning the stand up vs Duffy says a lot and it's enough for me to confidently bet him vs a guy who is straight trash everywhere except perhaps BJJ, which our guy Alvarez should nullify.

So yeah BJJ gets canceled and Alvarez dominates him in the stand up. Easy money...

Aslo Alvares is the 1 who is improving and much younger fighter. 27yr old vs a 36 yr old trashcan, cmon bro...

Edit this in: I am puttin some stock into the Duffy fight, he looked really good in that fight, his leg kicks were on point, strong kicks, he has good hands and was standing with Duffy and winning.

I don't completely agree with you regarding duffy's skill set, although it does seem like Duffy is declining.

Chimaev basically wanted to fight anybody in the top 10 and they all declined except Edwards. Everybody scared to fight Chimaev, so kudos to Edwards but I also feel it's the right decision for him, after this fight, if he wins they can't deny him anymore, he has to get the title shot too!

Yeah it makes sense, winner is at this point the undisputed #1 contender, either Chimaev has a top 3 win and looks unstoppable and can justifiably be given a title shot or Edwards beats the top prospect and was already probably unofficial #1 contender and gains some hype since Chimaev is hyped right now

think that yakovlev line is the most mispriced on the card, but obv i could always be wrong. i sometimes overestimate edges for sure, but I think this one is pretty far off.

It was, now it’s much better to play the Dec @5.00

I hope Chim doesn't become another Johnny Walker, Ronda's protege and a couple other hyped prospects.

But if I could see Edwards +200 or close to it, def taking it.

I recently noticed odds for an upcoming fight of Figueredo vs Alex Perez in November. Figueredo's odds to win are 1.70. I don't know much about Perez, but that seems fairly competitive. I figured Figueredo would be a dominant champion, seeing how he steamrolled Benevidez and has KO power.

Anyone know much about Perez or have thoughts on this matchup?

The UFC has a real problem bringing along these young guys a little too fast. Edmen, for example, is only 22 years old.

Sage Northcutt's 2 UFC losses came when he was only 19/20 years old. A fighter may not hit his physical prime until his mid to late 20s and may not put everything together until his 30s. When a good prospect like Sage Northcutt receives multiple facial fractures from a knockout at the age of 23, he may get out of MMA before his late 20s.

Chimaev has the perfect background to learn this game quickly but the dude has only been training MMA for a little over 3 years.

You could very well be right bro, I do 1 thing different from a lot of bettors ( I think), and it might not even be +EV.

Lets say we have a fight and the lines doesn't justify the bet on 1 fighter, in this case lets assume it's Alvarez.

Lets say the line is 1.6 but really we need 1.9 to justify the bet. Now many will either pass or look to bet the other side justyfing the odds and getting the "right" price.

This is were I differ, I simply look at who I think will win the fight. Sometimes I don't get the odds I'm looking, hey we can't always get the perfect odds or always find value. I'm not a professional who only bets on value or passes if it's not there.

That's not the case in this fight btw, I do think there's value but it ties in the way I think about betting a fight, if it's close I'll usually still take the bet, just because of gut feeling and I think the fighter will win it.

Sometimes that means I get a bet in at 2.0 but would of rather had 2.2+.

Thing is and that's just over my own personal sample, if I pick a guy to win and the odds don't justify it, it's often a mistake (for me) to change the bet and pick the other fighter based on "perceived value".

There's some wriggle room with this and if lines are straight out of control, then I can see me picking the other side, I mean it is MMA after all. There's a bit of feel prior to a fight and if I feel strongly 1 fighter is winning, why should I think of passing or changing bet, especially so if I feel strongly about it. Just take slightly worse odds and move on, next time we get better odds, it even out over time.

Both of the hype fighters you mention had massive short comings in 1 of the disciplines of MMA. Johnny can't fight on the ground, Ronda can't strike.

Good thing for us we know Chimaev can do both, just how good he does these things in the UFC, well that's what we about to find out.

Edwards is a dangerous opponent, I mean for anybody in that div, right. Looking forward to it, I always felt Edwards didn't get the credit he deserves, if he wins this there's no more denying him imo and of course it's great if Chimaev wins because beating a guy like Edwards puts the whole division on notice and it clearly shows he has the skillset we think he has to win the belt from Usman.

What you guys think of Chandler, you thin k he might be the guy to compete with Khabib wrestling wise?

Even in wrestling as a sport, the Americans can't roll with the Dagestani's, why would we assume they can in MMA?

What are your guys guesses for the Khamzat Chimaev vs. Leon Edwards fight night.

I think it opens with Leon as a +150 to +200 underdog.

It opened yesterday Leon opened -175 about 15 minutes later he was at +150 LOL - Currently sits Leon +110

Cool, thanks