Thanks for the insight.

I have a hard time seeing how Costa doesn't land. Paulo Costa has landed more strikes per minute than anyone in UFC history (more than twice the rate of Gastelum). Costa's striking accuracy is 57% vs 48% for Adesanya vs 43% for Gastelum.

Israel's Striking defense is quite good at 65% but it's not like he doesn't get hit. Costa's striking defense is not too good because he's willing to take punches to get inside.

Israel is able to pick people apart because most fighters aren't willing to take punches to get inside. Costa took 125 shots from Yoel Romero in a 3 round fight. This is more than Whittaker took in 5 rounds. This is more than twice as many punches as anyone else had taken from Romero.

My prediction is that Costa will pressure Adesanya and he will either get knocked out coming inside or he will successfully implement his gameplan. There's also a chance that Costa could gas but what are the chances that Costa is EPO'ed to the gills? I'd guess, pretty high.

This will be fought in the bigger cage which is a clear advantage for Adesanya.

I'm leaning much more towards Colby's narrative that he just wanted a way out and save face. I mean it could have happened... but unlikely.

You are right on your assessment that Woodley's legacy is a lot on luck and circumstance. Reasonable chance that USADA might be a factor. Who knows.

I took some Woodley KO in rd1, and then Colby to win in R4 and Colby in R5 and either guy to win in R5. Feel lucky.

There's no chance Woodley faked an injury, it's much more humiliating to get finished by Colby than it is to lose to him by decision even if it's by freak injury

I want to see Colby face Chimaev if Chimaev is as good as the hype which he very well might be, we'll find out over the next year. I want to see him face Wonderboy too before Wonderboy's prime is completely over, that aggressive pressure vs elite counterstriking would make for an exciting Sonnen/Silva style fight

Personally, I didn't think Woodley looked that bad. He had a takedown of his own in round 2 and defended takedowns pretty well, and got up within a minute of Colby's first takedown. Sure Woodley was gun shy, but I don't think that's anything new for him vs wrestlers and it didn't help that the first time he tried to throw some heat Colby took him down less than a minute into the fight.

Colby outlanding Woodley 104 to 5 in round 4 is pretty crazy but surely everyone expected Colby's cardio to take over towards the end of the fight. From my perspective this is less about how bad Woodley has become and more about how amazingly good the top Welterweights are today. I still think Woodley has a lot of fight left in him, but just won't ever be competitive with these guys (outside a puncher's chance). Given that, it may make the most sense for the UFC to cut him and him to go to Bellator.

BTW, his ribs looked like they were in a weird position right before he screamed out in agony.

totally could get him. costa ko 1st round or 2nd round, seems the most likely IF he catches him.

rewatched the yoel fight and costa was looking gassed in the 3rd round, probably due to the torrent of punches he was throwing at yoel. if costa doesnt get that earlyish finish isy will **** him up in 4/5.

costa has never been past 2nd round except for the yoel fight. who knows how his cardio is in an actual 5 rounder. we know isy stays pretty fresh til the end and can easily fight for 25 minutes and has done it twice recently.

my gut says isreal judges, due to costa's ability to take a punch + the fact isreal really hasnt finished many UFC caliber opponents except whittaker and brunson, but im going to hedge a little with 1st/2nd costa ko.

I'm on Adesanya at 1.7.

Costa might have impressive striking but you have to take into account opposition. For example he pretty much hit Hendricks with every shot he through in that fight as Hendricks shelled and didn't really offer much.

He did slow down in the Romero fight and there is no way he can fight that style for 5 rounds. Not doubt he is a beast but he does the majority of his best work when guys are backed up against the cage.

Adesanya has the best range control and foortwork in the division along with a big reach advantage. Costa can KO anyone but I do think stylistically this a really tough match up for him.

One of my locals completely asleep at the wheel on line movement, got some Klein +105, Tukhugov -120 just pure market plays and also took Adesanya -175 after rewatching Costa Romero I think he's too hittable and his cardio won't be good enough by r3-4-5, so Adesanya should cruise to a decision or may get him with a counter etc, when Costa wins itll be in r1-2 but after that I expect Adesanya to take over make him more like -200 after watching Costa's last fight again

I'm going big on Costa tonight, but the longer the fight goes, the better it is for Izzy... been looking forward to this fight for a while now

I like Reyes over Blachowicz (parlayed him with the o2.5 of Eubanks/Vieria)

Brandon Royval is a live dog IMO

I like the o2.5 in the Sanchez/Matthews fight

I feel like I'm over-extending with all these bets tonight. Hopefully I'll at worst lose 10lbs because of all the sweats.

.3u Ibragimov Rd 1 +500
.5u Knight KO +225
1u Klein -120
.5u Matthews Dec +125
1u Riddell -333
1u Dowadu +115
1u Kara-France Dec -110, hedge w .3u Royval sub +500
.6u Reyes-Blach to go distance +180
1u Isy dec +300 hedged with .3u Costa R1 +550 and .3u Costa R2 +750
1u Parlay Vieira-Reyes-Adesanya +237

Good luck everyone!

BetRivers of Illinois is offering a special "odds boost" tonight, complete with pop-up advertising when you open the app;

Well, 2+2 UFC guys? is this worth a punt for whatever their max bet is?

I'm not smart enough at calculating probabilities to tell you, but this may help as it shows odds of different fighters winning by dec, KO, or sub.

Fighter Fighter by Decision Fighter by KO/TKO Fighter by Submission
Costa +4530 +227 +2986
Adesanya +247 +219 +2504

Blachowicz +1780 +449 +2132
Reyes +297 +135 +2215

Royval +1503 +5852 +522
Kara-France -189 +2093 +1545

Eubanks +271 +3075 +1941
Vieira -105 +5028 +755

Dawodua +234 +847 +2741
Tukhugov +180 +1053 +1408

It's from this site: https://www.actionnetwork.com/mma/uf...d-september-26

The bolded numbers show which method of winning is favored for each fighter.

What you got going for you is the two final fights both seem to be leaning towards ending by KO, so you might have a decent sweat no matter which way you go.

If betrivers in Illinois is anything like the PA sites I use, then it's likely that they won't let you bet more than $10 on super-boosts anyway.

Good luck.

Thanks. Yeah, I investigated further and it is indeed limited to $10. Ha. So, it won't be a terribly interesting sweat, but if the true line should be closer to -250 than +250, I'll bet it and find it tomorrow if it was good.

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On Adesanya at 1.7
Ketlen Viera at 1.6
Reyes at 1.42
Jeff Hughes at 3.85

Going to wake up later and watch the main card can't wait for this one!

Costa is incredibly durable. I like the over 2.5 rounds in that fight. Not sure of the odds right now but I expect there is value in Costa by Decision, Adesanya by 4th round finish and Adesanya by 5th round finish.

I acknowledge my boy Diego is pretty terrible at this point in his career and looks to pretty terrible training in the airport but is Jake Matthews really -900? Seems pretty ridiculous. Last time Diego was really favored in a fight (vs Lauzon was pretty much a toss-up) was in 2013 vs Gomi. Since that fight, Diego has had 6 more wins. Stephan Bonnar being in his corner should be good enough for him to be no worse than a +350 dog (which would still be worse than what anyone has ever opened at vs Matthews).

Matthews is way better than his results but would never touch him at -700 or whatever because he can make some mental mistakes

On skillsets washed Diego has no chance though

I still think Matthews can be top 15, he's still young and his prime ahead of him even though hes been around forever hes only 26

He needs to win today if he's ever going to amount to a contender though

Did you guys see Conor and Diego wanted to fight, Dana White told him if he made that fight he should lose his promoter's license which is pretty accurate lol

Matthews is that low because he is fighting someone who has brain damage and a lack of motor skills. I've put a quarter of my roll on Matthews. I'm surprised to see Sanchez even being allowed in the cage again.

Yeah I`m on Adesanya tonight:

1.75u to win 1u

Good luck everyone !!! Make that maney $$$

this is like a pro vs average Joe fight.

Would have been so sad for Matthews if he got armbarred there but a nice dominant performance as expected

He might need to work on his fight IQ though after Diego got back to full guard probably fine to just stand up given how rocked Diego was and had nothing for him standing

Diego needs to fight much worse competition if he's going to keep fighting in the UFC

Thats a punch, ridiculous, should be a TKO win if Da Silva wants a timeout

Nice work by Riddell to turn the tide in this one he looked in trouble in the first

Clear 29-28 for him, fun fight

A lot of sharps I know are big on Dawodu. I`ll bite

Going small: 0.2u to win 0.2u

Ridell was at +195 after the 1st, thought about it but did not fire.

Let's go Hakeem!

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