Waited too long and missed the odds on Weidman.
Gone sub 1.8 already.

Lewis to win by KO at 1.7 looks decent to me.
Not really looked at the rest of the card properly.

Big on Marlon Vera at 3.75 against O'Malley for the card after this one. Those odds are crazy should be way closer.

Going to join you on this.

think you have to take chandler at -220 in a three rounder vs benson. so much equity in an early 10-8 round and i don't really see where benson has the edge either grappling or striking. to win rounds he has to play such a tight rope game of tapping in enough scoring kicks while staying off chandlers right hand, staying off the fence, not giving up his neck on a takedown. if you look at the people benson has beaten, not a lot of powerful wrestler-boxers who are competent grapplers, esp chandler who can somewhat kick with benson. you always have to worry about chandlers' gas in a tough 5 rounder, but in three i think it's an easy bet at this price.

i think chris should probably win in theory, but i don't like betting fights where i'm trying to guess how much someone has deteriorated. too much variance, wouldn't surprise me though if he comes out, gets an early td and gets to a dominant position and the fights effectively over before he gets in any danger.

i'm not sure i see the value in vera to be honest, but i rate sean very highly, the caveat being we obviously are guessing somewhat at his grappling game. i tend to think he'll be fine though, and vera clearly isn't on the level of someone like aljo or even ricky simon when it comes to wrestling. sean's kind of lucky in that 135 isn't a very wrestling heavy division. vera's such a slow starter and i think that will really cost him vs sean. i guess the glimmer of hope for vera is the terrion ware fight. ware really put on a ton of pressure and walked o'malley down and seemed like he was going to turn the tide before o;malley rallied in round 3 to take a clear 29-28. i just think o'malley is a lot better athlete now. he's way more put together, and he fought super hard even when he was noticeably fatigued which is always good to see in a prospect.

regarding vera/o'malley though i do think the market will close somewhat significantly tighter than it is now so i'll be holding off on betting o'malley til much closer to fight time

This line has moved into -180 territory so feeling great about this bet.

Does anyone have any insight/thoughts about the Black Beast line moving from -280 to -190 ? That`s a big move and from what I read from some posters Oleinik is better than an almost 3:1 dog so could this be the line simply adjusting?

Any thoughts on Mitrione vs Johnson? I`m thinking Mitrione KOs him but he can also get subbed, freaking Meathead is so unpredictable.

I don’t get the Russian love, why? Because he beat the worst version of Fabrio Werdum?
Derrick gets taken down every fight so I can see why some people think russia has a shot, but I don’t see it, Derrick is way stronger and at this point Alex is a washed up old man who probably gets KOd if Derrick comes in half sharp.

Meathead doesn’t get subbed by Jim f Johnson, no way. This is another line that’s been created on recency bias. Johnson is garbage. I don’t have lines but I’d be interested in Meathead Dec at +300ish

The thing with Mitrione is he's 42 now and his biggest attribute has always been how fast he is for a heavyweight.

Also we have seen him fold when he faces adversity. Can see why you would want to back him but it's hard to trust putting money on him at this stage of his career.

Lewis by KO at 1.8 is a play for me now. Oleinik striking is way too reckless.
Either he can get Lewis down and sub him or he gets knocked out. Really struggle to see this fight going to a decision unless its just very clinch heavy early on and both guys are gassed from the 2 round onwards.

i'm taking lewis, think he gets the ko. his weight difference is going to be absolutely massiveon oleinyk, and i think the whole stand up when you feel like it is going to be in play unless alexei can get to a control position like getting his back. i don't think lewis is as bad of a grappler as hunto though. honestly, i rate lewis's cardio more highly than oleinyks too. we've seen lewis win a version of this fight two times in a row now, except oleinyk is more dangerous on the ground, and more vulnerable on the feet than his last 2. i was gonna bet timothy johnson if he was a bigger dog but no way i'm touching that fight now that it's close.

Oleinik has ways to win, his striking is okay but a dog to Lewis due to power differential but he can tap him if he gets any sort of position you might notice Lewis hasn't exactly faced many elite BJJ guys or for that matter anyone who has decent BJJ and actually uses it. I think Oleinik wins close to 40% of the time I mean he did just beat Werdum, granted it was out of shape stupid Werdum not the version that wrecked Gus a few weeks later. Lewis hulk smashes him a lot, but if he doesn't I think Oleinik can win the fight all three ways (tko/sub/dec) obv sub is most likely but he's drawing live for the other two as well.

On that note just saw Oleinik UD is +2225 that seems ridiculous granted its 5 rounds and if Lewis gasses Oleinik should finish him etc but Lewis can have a passive style and Oleinik can definitely win some rounds on the feet if not much happens etc

I think Lewis is the fav, but took Oleinik @ like +190 avg (got some +200 +187 and +170) Lewis has been losing a ton of fights til he wins them even in the standup, he was down 3 rounds vs Shamil Abdurakilongassnameguy he was down 3 rounds to Volkov, Ngannou was an aberration in that his confidence was shot after Stipe (i'd snap take Ngannou to KO Lewis in the first in a rematch at evens)

Haven't got Weidman yet annoyingly but still gonna bet it, couldn't get on and was busy earlier in the week etc

I did get Dariush in the -16x -17x range, so i'm happy with that

Just gonna bet those three spots this card I think and should go 2/3 or so on average probably

I wonder if this is one of those spots to take Lewis by KO plus Oleinik by sub. Any thoughts?


edit: As I look at it closer maybe not. At my book Lewis KO is current -138 and Oleinik sub is +250. So, putting 1u on each seems kind of bad because I'd be hoping for the Oleink sub, and hedging it with a Lewis KO only, opening myself to a big loss if neither happens.

Maybe it would be better to do like 2u on Lewis KO, and then hedge it with like .3u on Oleinik sub so that if my desired/more likely outcome comes through I'm not giving up much on my hedge, and yet if the desired/more likely result doesn't happen one way it doesn't happen is via my hedge.

The Mitrione - Johnson fight is interesting, in that I'd pick both of them to lose to just about anyone. That said, I'm picking Johnson just based on age, he won his last fight, and better returns.

You're the second guy I've seen taking Vera. Think I'm gonna watch some tapes now.

Ended up decent on Dariush and Weidman, decided not to take Oleinik after weigh ins/sold existing bets off

Pretty happy to just be on Dariush and Weidman here, gl all for the card

Weidman line on the move again. Gonna get a decent size bet on both spots really like them

I'm on Weidman -137 average and Dariush -176 average (had a better Dariush price initially but added more)

Both are way more skilled than their opponents and will win if they don't get knocked out imo

Sure that happens sometimes but I think they're both fairly big favourites to win

My big bet tonight is Staropoli. Though I don't rate the guy too high and he hasn't won against anyone like Means, he's still won 7 of his last 8 and Means has been on a serious slide for a few years now. I used to think he was top class 5 years ago and I backed him a lot but he's just not fighting like that anymore. He got torn apart by Niko Price and suffered extraordinarily bad injuries. Ok, he beat Thiago Alves, but a round 1 guillotine shows very little about his ability to still fight. Starapoli is 27, a prime age to win fights in the UFC.

You can get Staropoli at 1.75 here in the UK atm but I would have him at more 1.5 and that's only being generous that Means can use that reach of his with his experience.

I'm slamming Starapoli.

Got Lewis Ko at 1.97 by trading the market on Betfair.

Also backed Kunitskaya at 1.57, Stoliarenko is extremely raw pretty much in all aspects of mma. She jumps guard, throws naked leg kicks from way out. Gets by on being physical and aggressive but I think Kunitskaya should take this 70-75% of the time.

Should have got on Dariush and Weidman but for me now the odds are probably where they should be.

Got Weidman at 1.91 to finish a double bet (parlay) with Brunson so happy with that.

GL if your betting live will watch the card when I get up tomorrow.

Marlon Vera at +254 (+274 on some places)

Need to see the improvements Sean has made since his fight vs the laotian.

Dariush line keeps moving towards the -220 now

Starapolis boxing is gonna give Means nightmares as Tim doesn`t use his reach effectively and eats shots.

Only way I see this otherwise if Starapolis goes for a TD and gets caught in a gullotine which Tim has a nasty one.

Also Means slows down so much after the 1st round, I hope the argentinian just boxes with him for 3 rounds as I believe he takes 2 & 3 easily.

Starapolis(-147) 0.75u to win 0.51u

Good luck everyone $$

Went with:

.5u Al Quaisi sub or dec +240 (lost)
1u Zalal rd 3 or dec -105
1u Truman-Sanchez to go the distance -213
1u Starapoli -138
1u Dariush -188
1u Stoliarenko +170
1u Oleinik ITD +250 hedged with 1u Lewis Rd 1-3 -105

Might look at a couple others for the sweat.


Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk

Lets go Tucker!!! Big on Tucker!!!

Crazy how we got almost evens on Tucker, the skill gap is huge!

Pretty sure Jaynes's ko of Camacho played a role in the odds.

Chime in the Lewis fight, the sub is live against him, especially as he likes to just chill on the ground for a minute or 2, then suddenly explodes. That might bite him in the ass if he does that against Olinek. Still favor Lewis, he has improved his cardio, his back pain is better, I think he's improving as a fighter, I think he gets the knock out!

Other fights:
Sanchez
Buckley
Dariush
Pitolo
Weidman
Starapoli

Had Tucker and <2.5 rounds. Bet settled on 888 as a loss. They're so ****ing incompetent.

Means' experience won there. Annoying.