I found these lines interesting too, but I didn't see it quite that high. I wasn't fast enough to get a small bet in on Trinaldo.

After seeing the scorecards of 19-19, 19-19, 19-18 in favor of herbert, trinaldo just needed to win round 3. I guess a split draw was in play, if it went 10-9, 9-10, 10-9.

Weidman line does seem low, he's lost 5 of 6 but to mostly elite comp. He isn't that far removed from a win over Gastelum, was up on the cards vs Jacare before KO. His problem has been getting caught and finished by some guys with monster power, which Ahkmedov doesn't have.

Feels like he is >50% to win that 1 but I'll probably go back and watch some recent Ahkmedov wins.

Been doing a lot of research on this Dariush vs Holtzman upcoming fight.

Dariush`s grappling credentials are legit and his MT will help him while on the feet w Holtzman. I think Holtzman`s striking is very basic, he often leaves his chin open but that **** is made of granite lol at 36 years old he will probably retire without ever being KOed.

Holtzman is physically a specimen whereas Dariush is built more like Rua but at 31 he is at his peak. Holtzman has shown to slow down in the 3rd round and I think the only reason he beat an over the hill Jim Miller is because Jim only had 2 rounds in the gas tank.

I really hope Dariush plays this safe and sticks to his grappling from the top, the brown belt Holtzman should not be able to survive 15 minutes of that caliber of Jiu-Jitsu.

Even on the feet I believe a good placed Knee by Dariush backs up Holtzman enough for Dariush to secure a TD or to punish him against the cage like he likes to do in the clinch.

Holtzman is a live dog if Dariush tries to go for a fancy KO like he had no choice vs Drakkar where he looked to be in trouble before he KOed his cheating arse. If Darush goes 100% grappling like he did vs Drakkar he wins an easy 30-27 which he should as he needs to accumulate wins to make a run at the deepest division in the UFC.

He seems like a very smart boy, I hope he plays this safe and subs or decisions an easy win.

3.1u Dariush (-155) to win 2u

Till was shown number of times the whittaker head pull back on his left high kick, throwing the kick to land 2 or 3 feet back would have been a nice play.

Just saw Rozenstruik is only -150 at 251

JDS seems pretty washed at this point, only thing that worries me is it is a quick turnaround for rozenstruik since getting his lights punched out by ngannou

That's why. It's pretty consistent that fighters who get knocked out hard lose a little bit and sometimes a lot pretty much forever. There's no precedent to see how rozenstruik recovers from knock outs.

yeah but JDS is coming off TWO tko/KO losses. hes been KO/TKO 3 times of his last 6 fights in just 3 years. and hes older now at 36 compared to 32 of Jair. hes got some MMA miles on him now and not in a good way like experience.

im not saying its clear cut or anything tho. but Jairzinho has only had that 1 stoppage against him, granted a very brutal KO. id be kinda shocked if he just declined huge after that.

I think he was lucky to beat Overeem, in that I had Overeem ahead, until he knocked him out in the last 5 seconds. If you put that down as an L then his UFC record looks not so good and certainly not good enough to be better than -150 vs JDS.

Yeah its hard to say obv Prime JDS is likely to dominate him, Rozen lost every round against Overeem if I recall correctly, but JDS is well past his prime. Rozen might be gunshy after getting wrecked by Ngannou, JDS is still decent offensively he just isn't as durable as he used to be and folds to shots that he would have eaten with no problem pre-Cain 2/3

I don't really think I want to get on either side of that one but as a JDS fan would love to see him win

Ye don't get me wrong, I think Rozen is more likely to win, but I'm just not doing cart wheels about the price.

That Rozen line seems accurate. Have you guys seen recent pictures of JDS? In April he had lost tons of weight even to the point that he looked a bit unhealthy. But in pictures from this week he is bulked up, looks easily 15-20 lbs of muscle added. They are not testing in Brazil so a lot of rumours about JDS being on that gear.

lol hes just leaner man. in that instagram im sure youre referencing, he's tanned, oiled, and has a pump from training. if you compare him to the blaydes weigh-in photos, it's clear he's just lost some fat. he definitely didnt gain 15-20 pounds of muscle, that would be an insane body transformation. he absolutely was geared up in his prime, but he doesn't look at all like that anymore.

Don't see anything that stands as massive value but put some small bets on a few underdogs.

Herman at 2.62
Maia at 2.44
Brunson at 3.7

Edmen looks good but not sure he should be this type of price yet. Not fought anyone elite yet and Brunson is still very dangerous. Think he should be closer to 1.5 imo.

Astonishing that you can get Khabib at 1.48 in some places. Absolutely astonishing.

yeah i mean justin pretty much only has a punchers chance like most before him. the price is nutty. justinG has lost to the likes to Eddie Alvarez, he literally gassed and got TKO. yet the oddsmakers think hes going to beat the GOAT at 155. against a man who never gasses and employs a strat designed to gas and break the opponent. LUL

even if justin's cardio/IQ is better like shown in the tony ferguson fight, i do not believe it will be near enough to beat khabib.

the unknown factor is the death of his father but thats such a ????? like who knows if it will make him fight harder, fight the same, fight lesser, who knows.

i think khabib will win a massive % of the time here and im betting on it

Thoughts on tmr?

Leaning toward Edmen, Kevin Holland, Lando, Luque.

Luque vs Brown will be a banger i think. luque probably finishes him in the 3rd round maybe 2nd. hes been on quite a tear lately, only recent loss to wonderboy in a fight where he was just technically outmatched by a top vet. otherwise hes just been smashing people. 9-2 in the last 3 years. Brown is a specimen at 170. hes big at 6'3 with a long reach. probably wont matter against Luque tho. +105 for finish seems ok. if brown can survive like perry did.... +300. risky tho.

Lando should outstrike Bobby Green. probably go to judges regardless of which side it goes. neither guy has tons of recent finishes, neither guy gets finished often. bobby green beat clay guida recently... Lando beat Yancy Medeiros. distance -240 might be good here. else judges lando +140

Kevin holland should have a fairly easy fight imo against Giles. Hes bigger, has wins against ppl like GM3 who giles lost to recently. just a good prospect out of contender series whos 4-2 in ufc so far. i think he subs giles here a good chunk of the time for +200, but tbh, +150 for finish is better. but i might toss a few judges in for +235.

Edmen seems like an unstoppable force atm. brunson is pretty fast, athletic and can hit hard but always seems to falter against the absolute top of the division. Is Edmen elite? i think so. He has really good pressure and brunson has crumbled early in fights, has a lot of round 1 losses. again to elite talent but i think edmen might be that guy. -150 for TKO/KO seems good. +600 for brunson to survive 3 rounds and lose but i dont see derek hanging with him.

Next thing that stands out to me is Dariush although I might get some Luque for this next card idk haven't done the research yet

got luque (inside leg kick gonna absolutely tear him up), lando, and maia. Randy is a good fighter the minute until you get him to back up, then everything falls apart. No reason that Luque can't replicate round one of Brown vs. Muhammed exactly. As long as he can keep the fight out of the clinch he should be fine.

If you think Lando is a good bet here you’re mad, fights total pick em.

Watch the first fight, Bobby Green had him worked out by the middle of round 2. Not to mention Lando is a round 1 guy, after that he fades every time.

It’s a pass for me or if pushed I’d take Bobby as a dog but good luck to you.

Leaning Maia too after seeing Calderwood on the scale. She didn't seem to like being there. But just wondering... What's your take on Maia?

Think it's likely to be a competitive kickboxing bout. I like Maia's forward pressure and I don't think Calderwood is explosive enough or has good enough footwork to not engage in the type of fight that Maia wants.

Think it's likely to be pretty close so happy to be on the dog here.

^ She could also go Chookagian on her and score take downs. Chookagian never really threw them until Calderwood bout.

Done my betting on these two, so probably not going to add more but think Meerschaert and Luque are amazing value spots at current odds. I'd cap them in the -350 range.

calderwood wants to be all the way out at range tapping in kicks, or if you crash into the pocket, she tries to work a clinch takedown game. maia is good in the clinch and shes going to move forward with a lot of volume. she doesn't have good pressure footwork, but calderwood doesn't have good elusive footwork so i don't see the fight looking like the maia/chookagian fight. calderwood's pocket defensive reactions are really bad. she just kind of shells up and takes the shots. you can land rly clean on her if you get in close. if jojo can't find total domination in the clinch like she did against lipski, i just think maia will crush the space for her kicking range and should land a lot of punches.

So far, tailing on these:

1u Herman +140
1u Vannatta dec +162
1u Luque Finish +115
2u Maia +135

Also added these:
.3u Durden KO +900
.3u Martinez KO +225
1u Holland by sub or dec +110
.5u Parlay Lando, Lugue, Maia, Shahbazyan +657

Good luck to all