Glad we get to see Usman/Masvidal

Obv Usman probably just wrestles with him but if he gets arrogant and strikes for a while it could be interesting

I fully expect Masvidal to come out all guns blazing in the first as his best chance is to land something fight changing early before he's taken down for the first time

Annoyingly I think all 5 favs are decent on the main card but also that in each case their line is slightly overinflated so no real value to be had

Leonardo Santos is old but i'll def give him a look as he's always been a legit contender and he's young in fight years given his age plus maybe Muslim Salikhov and a few others gotta do some research etc

I kinda want PVZ if I can get like +700 or something too sure she is being fed to the wolves here but it's WMMA and not like Ribas is Amanda Nunes or anything she got TKO'd by Polyana Viana once upon a time and time maybe Paige can land a head kick or something or work some pressure of some sort and win a close 29-28.

She is still young and should be improving in theory etc although who knows given she can make more money outside MMA than in it if she wants as a fitness model/D grade celebrity etc

No bets for me yet but will probably have a couple. Good chance i'll scale back a bit from the last few cards though and only bet a couple spots

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5dToHY-UQ8w

Rent Free MMA picks (without Puertorican):

Paiva vs Zhumagulov - Paiva ML at -175

Tybura vs Grishin - Tybura ML at -105

Santos vs Bogarov - Santos ML at -175

Dos Santos vs Salikov - over 2.5 at -110

Prochazka vs Oezdemir - Oezdemir ML at -165

Andrade vs Namajunas - Namajunas ML -210

Yan vs Aldo - Aldo ML at +200

Volk vs Holloway - Volk ML at -235

Usman vs Masvidal - Masvidal ML at +235

What do you guys think?

So far on got two plays on this card.

Ribas inside the distance at 2.2

Volkan Oezdemir at 1.63.

Put some money on the exchanges for a few other positions but not been matched yet.

Don't want to turn this into a thread where were just promoting youtube stuff but got the chance to go on the Trademate podcast and talk about mma betting.

Also previewing the upcoming card. Might be of interest for some.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=G7xfimvU0Aw&t

Purely on feel if I can somehow find Usman ~-270 gotta be one of the best value bets of the year, one week prep from a Covid journeyman. Think masvidal has a punchers chance, granted it’s been said that in the Till/askren fights and he’s came out on top, this gonna be a rough night for him imo.

Anything above +200 seems great value for Jorge. I got it at +240. I could easily see this line drop to +150 at close.

Agreed on Volk and Rose.

What's your thinking on Aldo/Yan match?

I like it. Gamble small at those odds on Aldo imho.

And I'm not the guy in the vid. Just thought of sharing it...

Thanks for sharing. Good to get insights from diff people.

Jorge said on ESPN he has 20lbs to cut in 6 days. He was 191 when he got the call....

Abu Dhabi its hands out reached that water to people of the world tremendous thrust, got to Appreciate...

Abu Dhabi

I got on Santos and Salikov, then sold Santos due to his price drifting and my bet being on 365 for face value cashout, might rebet him @ better price post weigh ins if he looks good etc and the steam against him stops. He is pretty old and inactive which is concerning but he's so good. Such a case of what could have been

RIP Mike Perry's career, it did seem inevitable but beating up old people on camera and shouting the N word seems like a good way to ruin your career if having your gf be your entire corner/team isn't enough

It's a shame he really needs to get some help or he's going to end up in jail or dead within a few years he has enough talent and charisma to be a mid level roster staple for years to come but he needs to get his **** together first

Aa lot of money coming in on the "names" , hold tight fam.

Jorge Masvidal Winner @ 9/4
Usman v Masvidal
Bet Type:
Single Bet
Total Stake
111.11
Estimated Returns
361.11

Kamaru Usman v Jorge Masvidal - Fight Result
Jorge Masvidal

Total stake:
£250.00
Potential returns:
£800.00

Kamaru Usman v Jorge Masvidal - Fight Result
Jorge Masvidal

Total stake:
£100.00
Potential returns:
£320.00

Go Masvidal you got this bro, enjoy your self and have a nice time.
Easy work when you put in the work and dedication.

Masvidal is going to put a clinic on this guy, he looked terrible in the Colby fight.

Dinner time, bring back your plates for second helpings in the 2nd and 3rd round

Masvidal has seen all every thing and no rockem sockem robot taken it in Abu

big holes going to appear for Masvidal

there is one guy that can give Masvidal problems (pin point and powerful striking + movement) and its not Usman

reptile and The Diamond break it down nicely.

Nice card, really nice event 0-o

fact you can get masvidal @ +155 and usman at -205 right now on some canadian bookie (sportsint) seems insane. they are miles ahead of every other bookie.


if you had to guess - masvidal will likely get a lot of late steam?

few days ago best price on usman was mostly -260 to -290 and today that range a bit dropped between to -230 to -260 range on most books. doesnt seem like anything newsworthy happened in just a few days unless I missed something? Best card of 2020 right?

Sportsint is arguably the softest book on the planet.

I’m still assuming sharp money will be going on usman, but line seems to be telling me different right now.

UFC 251 Embedded: Vlog Series - Episode 1,2,3






Clicky = How to watch - Sun, Jul 12 / 3:00 AM BST - UFC Fight Island, Abu Dhabi United Arab Emirates

Who got Masvidal? His line dropped hard the last 24 hours.

The casuals

Why people so high on Masvidal? Till got his back at fance very easily Usman is smart and coachable it's will be a domination most likely.

Backed Usman at 1.41, topped a little at 1.45.

Masvidal is KO early or bust, tough match up for him at the best of times.
On short notice its even harder, could end up being on of my biggest bets Usman keeps drifting and hits 1.5. Should be around 1.33 range imo

Raulian Paiva ML
Muslim Salikhov ML
Jiří Procházka by K.O
Amanda Ribas by Sub.
Petr Yan by K.O (R3)
Alexander Volkanovski by Decision
Usman by Decision 1.4 is a gift for ML

Aldo has never lost to someone when he has had a significant reach advantage (if we assume he really won versus Morares.) Holloway has an inch shorter reach, but he's so much taller that he still had an effective reach advantage. He seems to really only have trouble when he's forced to close the distance. I feel I got Aldo at good value for +186.

I got my first bet for the card:

Petr Yan 2.2u to win 1u (-220)

Some money came in on Aldo and the line dropped a bit, gonna lock an earlyish medium size bet now as Also looked drained in the weight ins and bettors might have smarten up to all his issues in the past year.

I think this line should be closer to -300, hopefully more casual money comes in and it drops it into the -180 -190 range but I doubt it.

Good luck everyone !

Everyone made weight......we got a hell of a night to look forward to tomorrow night boys and girls! All fights are on.

I was initially gonna bet max at +205 but I think he and his team were serious when they said they only met on zoom..

Leaning big on Usman - he will wrestle Jorge down he’ll make him regret taking a bite of that pizza. Might take a gamble on Aldo and Paige.

Any good value on the undercards?


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I think the price dropped because Poirer did an interview saying Masvidal has been training the whole time, even after negotiations originally fell through.