Took Usman early at 1.53 thought his odds would stay around this level a bit longer but guess not.

Think he is better everywhere and Burns is being over valued due to beating Maia and Woodley way past their peaks.

Congrats on the great score. Posts like this give me hope lol

Too bad Conor has a huge ego would love to see Conor vs. The Diamond 2

If you are a defender in soccer, it is a natural instinct to block a ball flying at you with your hand. However, the penalty for doing that is so grave, that the players do their best to unlearn that natural instinct. It is also a natural instinct in a street fight to head butt your opponent in the right circumstances (been there, done that as well), but fighters know that doing it has a good chance to result in disqualification.

So, I will repeat my suggestion on how to optimally deal with fence grabs, low blows and eye pokes.

A point should be taken in 2 cases:

1) A fighter ignores warnings and repeats the infraction.

2) An infraction, even if inadvertent, gives a fighter a serious advantage

I've never in my life had an instinct to headbutt somebody. That action actually takes forethought and I believe stopping a soccer ball with ones hand does too, albeit I could be wrong about that but I played soccer and never had a desire to stop a ball with my hands.

Without any thought one will naturally grab a cage when falling down near it. It's further complicated because you are allowed to use the cage in other ways such as bracing yourself against it when you fall. I'm not sure how easy it is to unlearn this instinct. Personally, I'm not sure fights wouldn't be better if fighters were allowed to grab the cage.

Low blows are going to happen, period. Often these low blows are just leg kicks that ride up, mispaced kicks, or kicks that were on target but the opposing fighter moved. The ramifications of low blows can be greatly mitigated simply by wearing proper protective gear. Rarely are low blows determinant in a fight and when they are I'd surmise it's probably because the fighter has poor protective gear on.

Eye pokes are concerning because of the long term ramifications they could potentially have. Ideally this could be addressed by a change in gear but there are fighters such as Jon Jones that are particularly apt to poke opponents in the eye and I'd support fighters like that being punished for continuing to fight in such a way that is apt to eye poke someone, regardless of whether they actually eye poke their opponent or not.

Your proposals would not only lead to more fights determined by some BS but it would also lead to more gamesmanship, which I certainly don't welcome. More fighters would be going for takedowns near the cage just to get a cheap point.

Of course all of this is ignoring the fact that it's impossible for a ref to see every eye poke, low blow, and fence grab. Fence grabs in particular are often obscured.

I think any fence grab should be penalised by restarting the fight on the ground with the fighter who grabbed the fence in guard and repeated infractions should take a point each time plus restart the fight on the ground in guard

Eye pokes and low blows should automatically be a point on a second infraction or any first infraction that causes severe damage or looks deliberatr and any additional infraction even accidental should be a dq loss

They should change the fence to a plexi glass or something.

I don't agree with grabbing the fence is a natural thing to do, especially when you have trained your whole life as a fighter to NOT grab it.

Cheats will cheat it's simple, and people who are more honest and play by the rules will simply not grab it. Many people will cheat to win, others will rather lose with their head held high!

I agree with AALegend, overall I think the UFC needs to step their game up, especially as fence grabs, eyepokes are game changers. How can you be so blaze about this?

Eyepokes, it effects the whole fight, like Reyes said, somebody who is constantly with flexed fingers, you have another thing to think about and it makes it harder to actually get inside, because you have that extra threat of getting poked.

So while you might not get poked, the fact that the hands are positioned is enough to make a fighter think and that too effects a fight.

Fighters know how to position their hands yet they still do it wrong, the REF reminds them constantly and they ignore it, I mean can you just ignore rules in other sports too?

man june was frustrating. didn't have a losing card (1 breakeven, 3 small wins) but every card i was up a ton early and slowly bled it all back during the end of the prelims/main card. july is gonna be insane though, so many mispriced spots imo. i've already chunked large on usman. no reason he can't just push burns to the fence and grind him out with elbows knees and punches. that's the easiest lowest variance method, but i don't see him having to avoid the ground game either if he thinks its necessary. burns was largely spent in the third round vs. kunchenko, and that was a fight he was winning/ getting his fight. having usman lean on him early should tire him out pretty quickly. i'm also the biggest usman bettor ever, but i think he's as close to unbeatable as anyone is in men's mma currently. no way burns is a worse matchup for him than colby was.

I feel the same as you do about Usman, as i do about volkanovski. (also about usman lol)

From what i remember, max was largely outpointed easily on the feet? i remember it being somewhat 1-sided even if max wasnt taking big damage.

ok ill go look. quick check of the media scores , most had it 49-46 or 48-47 like the actual judges did. but tbh 49-46 seems right from what i remember.

i dont understand what max will bring differently to the table, how much could he have improved in such a short timespan? probably see a similar max that we saw against volkan and dustin. volk seemed faster, his connections seemed harder and he just outpointed him ez especially with leg kicks. i dont see a path to victory for him against volkanovski.

anyway im slamming judges for volk and straight up for usman. maybe throw petr yan in for a 3-teamer?

eye pokes should be treated worse than cup shots, cup shots 1 warning, then 1 point.

even though 99% of eye pokes are technically unintentional, the fact that you are holding outstretched fingers alone should be a warning and if ignored an instant point removal.

the fighter can say "it was an accident" but the act of holding your fingers like that makes it NOT an accident. its mostly poor habit and training or just straight up maliciousness(rarely).

its like walking around a city with your head down looking at your phone and you smash into someone. OOPS ACCIDENT! But it really isn't, you wern't trying to hit anyone obviously, but the action of looking down at your phone whilst walking was risky enough for the "accident" to occur.

UFC has to force fighters to close their lead hand or change the gloves more, or have warning for it that then leads to a point lost even without an eye poke, or instantly make a fighter lose a point for an eye poke. So many options and they nearly all work.

Isn't Burns a black belt BJJ, how likely will Usman be taking him down. As for stand up, I think Burns beats Usman.

If Usman fights the way he fought Colby, I think Burns beats him, if Usman has no trouble taking him down and controlling him, then obv Usman all day. Not as convinced as you guys tbh.

Max won't be improving much, but can we confidently state that Max fought to the same ability as he did vs Aldo or Ortega to name just 2? Max looked off, perhaps after that Poirier beating it affected him a bit.

Writing of Max, I'm not convinced, not for a second. Getting great dog odds on Max, it seems like a no brainer bet tbh.

Both fence grabs and eye pokes should be penalised much stricter than a kick in the groin, as stated already a kick is often just an accident, while both the fence grab and eye poke are kinda preventable.

IMO the the 3 championships are all no brainers: Usman, Volkanovski, and Yan.

My level of confidence from most to least is:

1) Volkanovski
2) Usman
3) Yan

The Volkanovski/Holloway fight really wasn't competitive from my perspective. Holloway's normal gameplan is very unlikely to get it done vs Volkanovski and we haven't seen him deviate from that strategy in a very long time.

While Usman is a great fighter, and Burns has the weakest resume of any of these 6 fighters, I am less confident in that pick simply because Burns is such a dangerous fighter. He's potentially one of the most dangerous title challengers in UFC history because he has such a great potential to finish fights whether it is on the feet or goes to the ground.

Aldo showed in the Moraes fight that he be competitive with top fighters in the division. I had Moraes winning that fight and while I think Yan is better than Moraes, that's enough for me to have less confidence in this fight particularly since this is a step up in competition for Yan.

Make no mistake though. I think these are all slam dunks at the current prices.

Agree with the above like the 3 favs in the title fights.

Only on Usman at 1.53, would take Yan above 1.5.

Thought Rogan was overstating how good Aldo looked against Moraes and he has always struggled with output especially in a 5 round fight. If he doesn't get an early finish I think Yan takes over and wins this by a decent margin. Probably be a good live bet.

Rewatched the Volk vs Holloway fight last night and Volk won that fight pretty handily. Max will have to totally adjust his style to win a rematch, probably implement a rangy kicking game.

Also I think with no crowd the impact of Volk's shots are going to leave much more of an impression on the judges. Don't see his odds shortening much so hopefully can get him around 1.6 or above.

Hey guys, this might be the wrong thread but I have a question that someone might know.

I have been doing MMA sports-betting for a year now. Got furloughed and currently collecting unemployment. In the meantime I still do sports-betting while staying at home. My question is, do I have to report my losses and/or my winnings every week when I claim for unemployment each week? I win $100 here and lose $100 there. I just do this for fun so I don't lose my mind staying inside everyday lol. I just don't want to get in trouble by the unemployment people. I live in Maryland if that helps. Thanks for reading guys.

BTW..this card is STACKED!!! I'm staying away from Usman vs Burn, I got Usman winning but not confident in that pick. Rose should win if her mind is in the right place. There's other easy money fights

Depending on how much you want to compare lines etc, if thats no issue could buy BTC and bet on somewhere like nitrogen(Anonymous), dont see it being much of an issue either way though.


Burns out, tested posited for Corona, Hoping for Colby to step in.

Ah, can't see anyone stepping in for burns this fast! colby shouldnt accept if he's not ready, 0-2 vs usman would be crushing for his career

Oh gross was looking forward to that one. Crazy that Brazil and America, the two countries with the most MMA fighters have the two biggest outbreaks due to ridiculously incompetent leaders

Unfortunately Leon Edwards had turned this fight down before Burns got it. UFC is gonna have to pull a rabbit out of its ass.

uhhhh well ****. Masvidal? lol

Hey thanks for the help! Could you explain a little more on “compare the lines”? I don’t understand what that means. Also, are you saying I should be ok sportsbetting every week? I don’t have to report it to them my losses or winnings every week?

Masvidal won’t step in unless Dana pays him a ridiculous amount of money to take a beating. Colby is probably all talk. Nobody wants to fight Usman on short notice. The fight is 80-90% off. Volkanovski vs Holloway will be Co-Main Event I believe. Still a great care imo

People like to have access to multiple books in order to find the best odds for their bet, betting only at one book would deny you of this.

No idea, but I dont think it will likely affect your unemployment unless they closely inspect your bank statements and you have alot of gambling transactions, I had a friend who got denied a mortgage for this. Up to you regarding reporting but I wouldnt be reporting $100 bets. I just mentioned Nitrogen as it gives you a chance to bet and have peace of mind in regards to a trail.

Cant see anyone stepping in for Usman fight unfort, besides an extra paycheque the main reason for stepping in ridiculously short would be for a shot at the belt. Unless someone anticipated this unlikely anyone is walking around at a weight to be able to contend.

Usman vs Masvidal confirmed for main event.

https://www.cbssports.com/mma/news/u...nt-per-report/

Just wanted to throw in a random thanks to the community for their MMA insights as I like to throw sweat bets in on the undercards and I rely on your guys' insight onto whom to bet.

These guys are decent: https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCok...2o-4gdqWS6_H4w

F yes!