Nice write up Gatsby

+1.

Gatsby picked 4 of my bets for me. Thx alot

Added

£200 on Blagoy Ivanov at 1.86 and £100 on Corey Anderson.
Gatsby pretty much coveered both fights. Lewis is on the slide and if he can't find the KO he will be in trouble. Ivanov is as durable as they come and took a 5 round beating off JDS. Confident he can wear down Lewis for a late finish or decision.

I love Johnny Walker but feel like he is running hot and has that Houston Alexander aura at the moment. If you watch his fights where he doesn't find the finish early, his overall game is pretty incomplete and has some big holes on the ground.

Thx guys, took me a few days to do some research and I actually really enjoyed the process. I usually don't do this much research, but this is about to change. I want to take this much more serious and see if I can make anything out of this. Sports betting is tough but it can be done and I feel MMA is probably the best sport to achieve success, I know some of you do pretty good betting mma.

Sect7G, which 4 fights do you agree with and which don't you, always willing to hear a counter argument to my logic.

I had Blagoy over Lewis but at weigh ins, I'm hearing how Lewis is looking great and had surgery, less back problems, new nutritionist and is training more. This is not great news tbh, not sure how to interpret this, perhaps a no bet. The surgery is neutral and could still actually be a problem, as it takes time to heal, back problems take a long time too.

Which brings me to the Walker shoulder injury, I feel like this might be an issue as well or him, shoulder injuries usually need more time to heal, perhaps it wasn't a massive injury, idk, Luke Thomas was going on about his own injuries and that it took a few years to fully recover.

Any of you guys think like this? An issue I have with a guy like Corey though, and this is just from observation, you have guys that are just not that guy, you know what I mean, take football for example take Christian Ronaldo and Wayne Rooney. While Rooney is a good striker he isn't on Ronaldo's level, not even close imo. Rooney's a work horse and can score goals, but he will also shoot the ball 50 yards into the stadium, miss, even choke shots, sure he's solid and everything but he can't be trusted to come through for you in those times he needs to. He just doesn't have the skill, he doesn't have that special thing that only a few athletes have.

If you put 2 fighters up against each other, sometimes you just know, that 1 fighter is just not that fighter, they just can't get it done vs the other. It's hard to describe and I don't even know if it's a thing, it might just be me looking for **** that's not there.

I'm taking skill set into account, there fight IQ, there willingness to win, their toughness, how they are as a person, how talented. I do think there are advantages to be had when looking at more than just skill set vs skill set? I am trying to come up with an overall picture, take several attributes, skill, fight iq etc and weigh them up vs the other fighter to find an edge.

Training camp, do they fight with a game plan or not. Some fighters could be winning more fights had they just fought according to a specific game plan, many simply don't, this has to be taken into account.

Question, do you agree with me and we should be looking to more than just skill set and if so which other things do you take into account.

I am feeling more and more like this with fighters, you just can't trust them enough to bet them comfortably. Take the Michael Johnson fight, and indeed a few other of his fights. He is talented and a great fighter but he has ways to lose fights, such as the Emmet fight for example, clearly winning and just needs to chill the fook out and ride the clock, but what does this guy do, he finds a way to lose with 1 minute left, or his last fight, he just chokes or ****s up or what ever, again in the last minute.

I am still learning and with experience I hope I will be able to suss this, I feel it might be an overlooked issue. I still catch myself not taking bad fight iq into account, and afterwards I'm like see, I told you, but get suckered into thinking that everybody else must be right or else MJ wouldn't be +300 vs Stevie Ray.

Corey was doing good vs OSP, I think he was taking over, winning the fight and OSP was gassing and he manages to **** it up. So while I think Walker is a hype job and is overall game sucks, he obv has that KO power and is very confident. I am leaning away from my Corey bet, will bet him but small, because I just know he aint that guy, it's close though, as I do think he beats everybody else in the division with the exception of Reyes and Jones. Can Anderson prove me wrong, I don't think so, he just doesn't have it, it's not something you can acquire over time, you are born with it imo. He can improve but in my opinion he needs a mental coach and he needs to change his mentality. He still won't be that guy with the "it" factor but he can improve to the point that he will be able to at least beat Jones at least 1 out of 10 times. He is also not killer enough, which I also think might be an attribute worth looking into.

Walker does have that it factor, which is why this bet concerns me. He does have the ability to beat both Jones and Reyes, but prob more a punchers chance but I give him a much better chance than a guy like Corey. Walker has that talent (KO), Walker is that guy right now, I just do't know how much it is because of the hype behind him.

The Walker fight seems like a case of either Walker knocks him out quickly and wins or doesn't and loses. Generally speaking i'm pretty low on Anderson's chin and striking defense, although if he can get the fight to the ground before he gets rocked, he almost definitely wins. It's a fight that will likely be decided by whether Anderson can take Walker down at will or not.

As you said, Anderson isn't 'the guy' but he's a workhorse, Walker clearly beats Jones way more often than Anderson does (Anderson surely is as close to drawing dead as a top 5ish fighter can be vs Jones) whereas Walker has a puncher's chance, but again styles make fights

And yeah, Michael Johnson is the biggest waste of talent, he can outstrike superior fighters etc and be cruising to a decision then just does something ******ed and finds a way to lose over and over. He's the opposite of Darren Elkins (a guy with very limited talent/physicality, but a great fight IQ and heart). I have no idea how Elkins can have such a good fight IQ and still get that tattoo, but whatever lol

I feel like my favourite spots of the card are Wonderboy followed by probably Gastelum, but I missed the boat on the Gastelum price by not betting early. I feel like I have a slim lean towards Diaz as a dog since in 5 rounds I have it a flip (in a 3 rounder i'd lean Masvidal) and i'll definitely consider playing Walker wins in r1 by KO hedged with Anderson or something

I can't call Lewis/Ivanov I really think both guys are overrated in general (although I did bet Lewis against Volkov I clearly got very lucky and i've faded both guys more than i've backed them in general). I feel like Ivanov got lucky vs Rothwell a couple fights ago too from memory I had it a close fight but for Rothwell, and Tuivasa it turns out isn't as good as his hype was saying.

That said, Lewis doesn't throw volume and relies on hulk smashing to win fights, when he doesn't hulk smash you he generally loses and Ivanov has a chin

That fight seems like a pretty clear no bet to me

I somewhat agree but at the same time disagree because we have seen Walker KO guys in later rounds as well. He looked very gassed in 1 of his previous fights in the 3 rd round but he was still dropping bombs in the 3rd as well. Corey has to be mindful all 3 rounds. He has generally looked ok in the 2nd round.

This is Corey's fight to lose though imo, as Walker really doesn't have an answer for take downs and fighting of his back, getting back up, he looked lost in some of his previous fights on the ground.

Corey has also been finished in later rounds, so while he should be the much fresher fighter, he is still prone to getting ko'd later on as well.

The only way I'd agree with your analysis of either Walker in r1 or Corey if it drags on, is if Corey is able to really put a pace on Walker and make damn sure he is gassed by the 2nd round. I don't think we can confidently say this will happen, as Corey generally starts slow himself and usually takes some time to get into things.

I am not dismissing it but I do think Corey will have to fade many many bombs in R2 and perhaps even R3 unless he puts on a real clinic from start to finish much like Frankie did to Yair.

I decided that I was gonna post in this thread less, but I’m drunk so I said **** it.

I think Johnny Walker is gonna kill him and I have a huge bet on him. All of your arguments for why he’s gonna lose are dumb in my not so humble opinion. But we’ll see what happens.

I have over $12k wagered on this card, this is an amazing one for betting on as pretty much every line is seriously mispriced. Good luck to all.

Hahaha, good for you mate!

Who else are you betting?

I'm off the Blagoy bet, too much uncertainty imo, with Lewis training more and feeling much better. I initially thought Blagov would easily out-work him and if Lewis got a lucky ko then so be it, but now you can actually make a case for Lewis putting in more volume and Blagoy is not exactly volume heavy himself, so I can make a case for a Lewis win as well. It's a no bet.

Got a few parlays as well, should be a fun night.

Think Till is going to finish Gastelum in the 2nd or 3 rd round.
Think Corey will derail the hype train and eitrher finish him in the 3rd or dec Walker.
Nate is the real OG and will school Masvidal starting from the 2nd round. He will prob finish Masvidal in the 5th.

Keep posting I enjoy your posts

Who else you got?

Fwiw i'm considering firing Walker wins in r1 as well, but if he wins I fully expect it to be in the opening round - OSP did destroy Anderson later in the fight though so I guess it is possible - i've also only seen Walker in the UFC haven't watched much of his pre UFC stuff so i'm not super informed on his cardio etc.

I haven't bet anything yet as i've had a busy day but i'll def be on Wonderboy in some capacity as if his chin isn't shot he's def a decent fav and have my eye on a few other spots

Is there anyone in the thread who is on Luque?

The money's been coming on him today someone talk me out of betting on Wonderboy - is the only reason to bet Luque because Thompson is old and his chin may have questions after Pettis and the Woodley wars? Surely no one thinks Luque takes rounds off Wonderboy standing right so it's by finish, if so is it by KO or do people think Luque takes him down and taps him?

I'm prob gonna wait until I wake up to bet the card see what the late steam does on some of the fights but really excited to watch this one as a fan, all of the fights on the main card are interesting (although Lewis vs Ivanov could really suck if neither of them find the other's chin quickly) but all of the fights look really entertaining on paper

Jorge Masvidal
To Win Fight
5/8

150, to return 243

I'm a Luque fan and will be cheering for him to win but I wouldn't bet him. I heard Wonderboy talk about how Luque is a muay thai striker and won't be trying to take him down. Luque does have a very strong ground game though but yeah if you look at his past fights he mostly just wants to stand and utilize Muay Thai.

If I was Luque, I'd want to take this to the ground. That may not be realistic though Stephen Thompson is very elusive and good at keeping distance. Matt Brown took him down 5 times in 2012, but since then nobody has ever taken him down more than once. Actually, the only person that has taken Wonderboy down since that 2012 fight is Tyron Woodley. Woodley was 2 for 3 in takedown attempts vs Wonderboy in 10 rounds of action. That's pretty insane. Hell, he fought Rory Macdonald for 5 rounds too and Rory was 0 for 2 in TD attempts vs him.

I admire Luque's toughness and grit but stylistically this seems to be a tough match for him. He was calling for this fight though so maybe he thinks he can turn this into a dog fight which is what he will need to do to have an edge vs Wonderboy.

Johnny Walker is a tremendous talent and I would have thought all the dumb money would be on him (and him via round 1 considering his UFC wins took just 36 seconds, 15 seconds, and 1 minute 57 seconds) especially since Johnny Walker is the sexiest fighter in the UFC at the moment and Corey Anderson is like the opposite of sexy with 7 UFC wins via decision, but from what I've seen the odds are not really that bad to bet Walker.

In my eyes Walker is the clear favorite in this fight but I could also see Anderson grind out a win. Still, I would have expected a guy with this much hype behind him to be at least -250. Corey Anderson has quality wins over ranked guys but he also has losses to lower ranked guys, all quality opponents, but 2 of them are currently unranked and the other is #13.

I'd expect Corey to fight conservatively early on given what's happened in Johnny's last 3 fights. Unless Corey gets it to the ground though he will be in danger of getting knocked out. I have no clue how good Johnny Walker's cardio is but I know he's been working it. I think the bigger question mark about Johnny Walker will be how he will respond to adversity. He's an extremely confident fighter but what happens when he gets put in adverse positions and starts getting pounded on.

Luque got some serious power, and if he connects, well Thompson is kinda chinny but I still trust my Thompson bet, I really think he will be too good. Luque unlikely to go for take downs, he usually just doesn't go for td, but even if he does, Thompson got pretty good tdd, don't worry, my only concern is that Thompson is 36 and wonder if he still wants it. He did say that the Pettis KO lit a fire under his butt, so he seems to still want it, and these guys are competitors, I wouldnt be surprised if Thompson still has ambitions for a title run.

His cardio is super suspect, going from his past fights. He is also lost on the ground, he has massive holes in his game and gets very sloppy once he gets tired.

UFC 244 Risk $3,036.21

Nate Diaz (+150) vs Jorge Masvidal $200.00 for $300.00
Nate Diaz/Jorge Masvidal fight goes the distance (-110) $110.00 for $100.00
Nate Diaz/Jorge Masvidal Draw (+8000) $15.00 for $1,200.00

Darren Till (+215) vs Kelvin Gastelum $100.00 for $215.00

Stephen Thompson (-103) vs Vicente Luque $206.19 for $200.00
Stephen Thompson (-110) vs Vicente Luque $202.02 for $200.00

Derrick Lewis (+100) vs Blagoy Ivanov $200.00 for $200.00
Derrick Lewis (+100) vs Blagoy Ivanov $200.00 for $200.00
Derrick Lewis wins in round 3 (+900) $25.00 for $225.00

Gregor Gillespie (-145) vs Kevin Lee $145.00 for $100.00
Gregor Gillespie (-150) vs Kevin Lee $300.00 for $200.00
Gregor Gillespie (-152) vs Kevin Lee $304.00 for $200.00
Kevin Lee wins by submission (+1150) $40.00 for $460.00
Gregor Gillespie/Kevin Lee Draw (+8000) $10.00 for $800.00

Johnny Walker/Corey Anderson: No Bet

Shane Burgos/Makwan Amirkhani: No Bet

Edmen Shahbazyan (-154) vs Brad Tavares $154.00 for $100.00

Andrei Arlovski (+130) vs Jairzinho Rozenstruik $100.00 for $130.00
Andrei Arlovski (+130) vs Jairzinho Rozenstruik $100.00 for $130.00
Jairzinho Rozenstruik wins in round 1 (+240) $45.00 for $108.00
Andrei Arlovski/Jairzinho Rozenstruik Over 1½ (-135) $270.00 for $200.00

Jennifer Maia (+140) vs Katlyn Chookagian $100.00 for $140.00
Jennifer Maia (+140) vs Katlyn Chookagian $100.00 for $140.00

Lyman Good/Chance Rencountre: No Bet

Hakeem Dawodu (-110) vs Julio Arce $110.00 for $100.00

Good info. I was initially thinking Corey Anderson as an underdog but I really thought the odds would be wider than this.

The UFC loves to stack these mega cards with exciting fights. They also like to put top up and coming talent on these cards to get more eyes on them. Johnny Walker, Edmen Shahbazyan, and Gregor Gillespie are arguably the 3 top up-and-coming fighters in the UFC right now. They all have tough tests in front of them but on a PPV like this the UFC isn't looking to test them as much as they are looking to showcase them. They are trying to build stars. It's clearly in the UFC's best interest for these 3 fighters to win and the more impressive the win the better it is for the UFC.

Not everything works out to plan in the fight game though. If I was to say which of these 3 is most likely to get upset I'd say Johnny Walker even though he's the biggest favorite of the 3. I initially had Edmen as my biggest favorite but I may be underrating Tavares a bit. He just looked so awful vs Adesanya (whether it was 50-45 or 50-44 or 50-43). With that being said I have Gillespie as my biggest favorite. Kevin Lee has been calling for this fight but listening to him talk I don't even think he thinks he will win this fight. I think he is taking this in good faith that there will not be downside for him if he loses. If he wins, then he shocks everyone and does it on a massive PPV. If he loses, he loses to a guy that nobody else will fight and he probably expects the UFC to look favorably on his willingness to take the fight. I hope for Kevin Lee's sake that is the case because if he loses he will have lost 4 of his last 5 fights. I'd actually love to see Kevin Lee win this fight but in order to do that we'd have to see a Kevin Lee that we have not yet seen in the octagon.

Wow, wtf are wrong with some of these fighters, why would Rencountre think he can stand with a powerful striker? His fkn skill is wrestling and he didn't wrestle at all. You just can't trust these bums!

Kevin Lee looked like he had staff infection again, which if true, he will struggle big time. He did looked massive though, if his cardio holds up, I can see him winning.

Lee looked very good vs Barboza irrc he went 5 rounds but Barboza not pushing a pace like Gillespie will.

Chookgian lighting Maja up but these commentators are biased, no mention how she putting a clinic on her. She way faster, hitting Maja and making maja miss a ton!

Really think Rozenstruik is going to win this, he is way faster and has really good combos, his ground game is meh but what ever, he aint fighting DC or Cain.

He will most likely finish Arlovski, perhaps in his first clean shot, though hoping the Pitbull can hang on all 3 rounds, just don't want to see him take that damage! Still Rozenstruik can finish in any round, and a2nd or 3rd round finish is very plausible!

lol, kinda what I thought! 1 shot, first encounter!

You hit that nail on the head. It was probably long past due.

It was always my preferred outcome, funnily I didn't even bet the 1st R ko, odds were kinda meh, still got him straight up but missed the other props.

In 2 minds about Edmen, Tavares is tough but I like Edmen, from what I seen, he has something about him, he's still very young, hopefully he can be trusted, it's still early but going to bet him small, I think he might be 1 of those guys!