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Old 03-24-2019, 01:39 PM   #48226
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Re: MMA Thread

Big bet on Blaydes came through and got the decision with Jennifer Maia.
Decent night betting wise and thought the card was pretty entertaining.

Already put some money down on Adesanya at 1.5. I think Adesanya's reach advantage and control of distance will be too much.

It just seems to be a real tough match up for Gastelum harder then the Whittaker fight in my opinion. Could he use his underrated wrestling? Potentially but the way Adesanya dealt with Brunson gives me confidence that Gastelum will find it really hard to close the distance.
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Old 03-24-2019, 01:43 PM   #48227
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Re: MMA Thread

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Wonderboy is going to put Pettis out cold in the middle rounds with a head kick, i'll go with late r3.

Fight is slightly more competitive than I expected but looks fairly similar; Wonderboy is just a bigger, rangier and better kickboxer

10-9 WB although Pettis did land a bit, but WB obviously landed the far better shots

Please give us WB/Lawler if he wins even though Lawler's coming off a loss.

I guess if Usman stays active and keeps winning there's time for him to fight all of Colby/Askren/WB by mid 2020.
sup swoop,heart breaking loss obv. wonderboy did handle the loss like a champ afterwards, how anyone can dislike the guy in slightest is beyond me. hated seeing him take those 2 extra shots on ground as he was ko before he hit the felt. think hes ran pretty damn bad with his last string of fights, I think he can still make a rise. As he was dominating that fight until he wasnt.

dont know exactly how lucky pettis got, as it was pretty clear he was losing that fight as his defense was decent but that jab was landing all day and he already said he had a broken nose, i was thinking WB was gonna finish in rd 3/4. the leg kicks worked, but overall with his broken nose he was pretty fortunate to have it end but great punch nonetheless. till and wonderboy both ko'd with superman punches not to far apart against opponents that were surely capable but underdogs nonetheless.

in future if any betting lines thinks pettis has any heat behind him, I'd love to take the other side. clearly at 170 if he faces anyone with wrestling hes done, expecting RDA will still be still a decent favorite in the rematch at 170 and rightfully so but props to pettis wanting to run it back, he honestly was never same fighter after that fight. I just dont see it going well though. Its not like RDA last 2 losses were to chumps, hes always struggled with wrestlers and against usman he put up a much better fight then the former champ and the colby match was reasonably close, many people had it 2-2 going into final round.
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Old 03-25-2019, 01:33 PM   #48228
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Re: MMA Thread

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So happy I didn't bet WB and Hill, what a bunch of morons!
^^^^
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Old 03-26-2019, 11:44 AM   #48229
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Re: MMA Thread

Wonderboy was fighting a reasonable fight he just got 20% puncher's chanced. It was pretty clear if it goes the distance Pettis gets the decision under 10% of the time and Wonderboy was landing a ton on Pettis. I don't regret the bet particularly they way I would if he got dominated for 5 rounds or whatever.

Should have got Gaethje sooner but oh well. Will think about it some more but I think his fight style matches up well with Barboza

Just remembered Branch is 37 and coming off a KO loss so backing away from that lean slightly, if he was a few years younger i'd snap take him against Hermansson but overall I do poorly backing ageing fighters against non cans, so might leave it. Still lean that way slightly but not as much as I did.
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Old 03-26-2019, 04:19 PM   #48230
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Re: MMA Thread

I have bet Branch at 2.05

It was only last year that he knocked out Thiago Santos.
Cannonier did whoop him pretty bad and like you say his age is a factor.
Still though I think he is the more well rounded fighter of the two. He has beat the better competition.

Not going huge but stuck £100 on him as I have him as a marginal favourite in this fight.
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Old 03-26-2019, 08:20 PM   #48231
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Re: MMA Thread

I would slam a Branch, Gathje, M. Johnson 3-leg
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Old 03-26-2019, 09:42 PM   #48232
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Re: MMA Thread

got emmett to grind MJ out. he's gonna be giving up a big speed advanatge but he's good enough to make MJ worry about his striking and he should be able to blend in some takedowns. i assume he'll be fighting a little smarter after that brutal ko from stephens.
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Old 03-27-2019, 12:32 AM   #48233
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Re: MMA Thread

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and that's officially the end of Wonderboy's prime
Good riddance.

Actually, I thought he was fighting pretty good and just got caught. Still, the WW division has so many good wrestlers at the top that I don't see either of these guys making a run at the belt regardless of the outcome of that fight.

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Angela Hill's stronger than Markos and does have better striking from memory or more power anyway but she's clueless on the ground she's not a lock against anyone let alone someone who beat Tecia Torres on TUF and won a close fight with Carla Esparza. Markos has been really up and down throughout her UFC career including on that TUF season.
I'm a fan of both these two and was surprised to see Hill was the favorite. Been busy and didn't even realize these 2 were fighting one another until I watched the event today.
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Old 03-27-2019, 07:53 AM   #48234
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Re: MMA Thread

I don't get the Wonderboy hate at all, i've always found his and Machida's karate style fights entertaining, even if they went to a lot of decisions they both landed some spectacular KOs along the way and their fighting style is unique instead of 'wrestle-boxer' or 'wrestle-bjjer who sucks on the feet' or 'muay thai+sprawl' that makes up 90% of the UFC roster - same goes for guys like Cruz, his style is unique and while he goes the distance a lot his fights are usually entertaining.

Woodley is a far, far more boring fighter than Wonderboy despite having more power to land KO shots more often. Usman is too for that matter and I like Usman (although a little less since he's an Ali Abdelaziz guy, I swear that scumbag just manages so many fighters I would otherwise like and makes it impossible to like them)
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Old 03-27-2019, 12:13 PM   #48235
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Re: MMA Thread

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got emmett to grind MJ out. he's gonna be giving up a big speed advanatge but he's good enough to make MJ worry about his striking and he should be able to blend in some takedowns. i assume he'll be fighting a little smarter after that brutal ko from stephens.
meh, could actually look more like the des green- emmett fight the more i think about it.
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Old 03-27-2019, 01:13 PM   #48236
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Re: MMA Thread

can't see how branch isn't a play. hermannson has a game that's 100% predicated on getting on top which should be tough against branch. i'm not willing to bet the farm, but i think branch is a little better striker than hermansson who's basically a guy who just spams kicks from distance. hermansson has lost to santos and cezar ferreira and beaten all the other guys who can't really wrestle.

branch did look really bad in his last fight though. looked really gassed after one round repeatedly taking cannonier down and not being able to solidify position. took a lot of good shots working for the takedowns as well.

Last edited by Joe Pulaski; 03-27-2019 at 01:19 PM.
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Old 03-27-2019, 06:59 PM   #48237
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Re: MMA Thread

Well, like many others here i got burned on the WonderBoy KO....
I did cash with Barber and Pena to save the day.

Im surprised no one has posted any thoughts on the breaking MMA news of Connor announcing his "retirement".....

I wonder how long this is going to last....
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Old 03-28-2019, 02:19 AM   #48238
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Re: MMA Thread

That's because nobody thinks his retirement is real. I'd say it's at least -1000 Conor will fight at least one more time in MMA or boxing in his life with MMA being the far more likely of the two

Conor's problem now is he still wants to try and leverage ownership shares out of the UFC but his stock is lower now than any time since he first won a belt because he doesn't hold any belts in the UFC. He should just insist that the Cerrone fight main events and do that one since I personally think Cerrone is the easiest win for him that is both a big name and a top 15 fighter. Because he's Conor, he can insist on a title shot after any one win, but he can't take back to back losses to Khabib because his whole 'character' relies on him winning fights to remain a draw.

Nobody really cares about Diaz 3 in this point, that can be his final payday whenever he is no longer a relevant title contender in any division in a few years or whatever, I think Pettis is more dangerous than Cerrone is for him, Ferguson's out indefinitely with personal issues and Khabib isn't defending until after Ramadan

The other possibility is the Holloway/Poirier winner for the Interim belt if Holloway is still going to be out forever, but Holloway especially is a big risk for him (and I think Max wins that fight) - if it's Poirier, I could see Conor taking that fight to 'win' the Interim belt off him and solidify his rematch with Khabib.

But yeah, Conor isn't retired. He'd have made a much bigger deal of it if it was a legit retirement and I can't see him not retiring in the octagon when it's real and it won't be for years, I mean Conor is still only 30 and has 4-5 years of his prime left. If he wants to take a year off to sell whiskey he can still do that and come back to MMA when he wants another 20 million plus dollars or when the competitive urge strikes

If he lost his next fight too and is effectively removed from title contention/status as a draw diminished then I could see him retiring for real but I can't see Khabib being his last fight. I'd snap take Conor fights in the next 24 months at evens (and its not a real retirement if he fights within two years of the announcement; if he took 5 years off maybe).
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Old 03-28-2019, 02:31 AM   #48239
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Re: MMA Thread

yeah I'd snap bet jail time for Conor over him never fighting again
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Old 03-28-2019, 04:27 AM   #48240
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Re: MMA Thread

i think gaetje is gonna have the upper hand by design..perfect style to counter barboza standing up! he has better hands , pressure fighter that can take it! if barboza doesn't have space to kick and his opponent cut the corner really well ...simple as that , ist a taylor made for gaetje & barboza just fight nurmagomedov and kevin lee back to back , which was both massive ground and pound clinic
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Old 03-28-2019, 10:08 AM   #48241
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Re: MMA Thread

Got £200 on Moroz at 2.5

Mazo is 6-0 making her debut. But she has been fighting really low level competition.
She looks a solid striker but again against low level wmma fighters with 3-6 records its tough to judge how good she really is.

Moroz has cardio, solid boxing throws a lot of volume is experienced fighting in the UFC. She is also training out of ATT for this camp. Which should be a positive.
Mazo might just be fighting to the standard of her competition but I see this fight much closer to a coin flip.

Moroz has been backed into 2.25 with Pinny but 2.5 is still available with a few bookies.
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Old 03-28-2019, 10:50 AM   #48242
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Re: MMA Thread

Still no bets but ill probably make a few this card

UFC 239 shaping up nicely. Jones/Santos and Nunes/Holm to go with Rockhold/Blachowicz

Easiest matchup possible for Rockhold among the top contenders because Blachowicz less likely to put him out cold with one punch than every other top ranked contender. I'm super low on Rockhold because of his glass chin but hope he opens in a pickem because obv he outworks Blachowicz on the feet. That said if the odds for him to get knocked out are good enough...

Hoping for +700 or something crazy on Santos, he and Walker are the only two guys I want to back at long odds against Jones at the moment due to their solid puncher's chances and power.

No idea why Holly Holm is getting yet another title shot off her 1 win but I guess the division is thin now and she's one of the only names left. Surely when Nunes wins this is the last we see of her getting title shots. Since she lost the title to Miesha, she lost to Shevchenko, then got a title shot off that loss which she lost, then she beat Bethe Correia and got another title shot which she lost, then beats Megan Anderson and she gets yet another title shot.

Obv backing Nunes if the price is at all reasonable but it'll probably be -300 or something.

It does make me kind of want to book a last minute trip to Vegas for the WSOP Main and UFC 239 though, see how the next month or two goes I guess.
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Old 03-28-2019, 04:55 PM   #48243
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Re: MMA Thread

Forgot its the One FC card this weekend.

Should be good, Mighty Mouse and Alvarez are making their debuts. Also got the Folayang vs Aoki rematch.
Would think there would be some odds for this.
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Old 03-29-2019, 07:41 PM   #48244
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Re: MMA Thread

Bellator 219 Risk $1,215.00

Saad Awad (-240) vs Brandon Girtz $240.00 for $100.00

Andrey Koreshkov/Mike Jasper Under 1½ (+145) $75.00 for $108.75

Joe Schilling/Keith Berry Over 1½ (+120) $75.00 for $90.00

Janay Harding (+300) vs Marina Mokhnatkina $100.00 for $300.00
Janay Harding (+300) vs Marina Mokhnatkina $100.00 for $300.00
Janay Harding (+290) vs Marina Mokhnatkina $100.00 for $290.00
Janay Harding (+285) vs Marina Mokhnatkina $100.00 for $285.00
Janay Harding (+285) vs Marina Mokhnatkina $100.00 for $285.00

Parlay:
Andrey Koreshkov (-895) vs Mike Jasper + Daniel Straus (-555) vs Shane Kruchten $325.00 for $101.41
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Old 03-30-2019, 02:03 AM   #48245
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Re: MMA Thread

Took some Johnson -111 as my first bet he's moving in a bit and was leaning that side

Definitely going to be on Gaethje undecided on straight up or a TKO prop. Probably straight up, but will decide for sure later but i'm going to be on him in some capacity

Tossing up Branch, I want him on skillset but him being 37 and coming off a TKO is worrying me even though he beat the #1 contender 2 fights ago. Will probably still fire but gonna think on it a little bit; if he isn't off the cliff now it isn't far away and I do very poorly backing old fighters in general, although he hadn't shown any signs of being past it up to last fight - once it's gone it's gone though with older fighters
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Old 03-30-2019, 02:13 AM   #48246
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Re: MMA Thread

Caught a little offmarket Moroz +141 as well but smallish limits. Taking some Gaethje +110 too (I know Pinny is +113 but making a 'square' bet to disguise sharp action elsewhere at a soft local)

Also wow @ UFC 239 card so far. JDS vs Ngannou too now and Askren vs Masvidal both targeted for it. Will be a sick card if they can keep it together.

Last edited by SwoopAE; 03-30-2019 at 02:22 AM.
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Old 03-30-2019, 01:29 PM   #48247
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Re: MMA Thread

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Janay Harding (+300) vs Marina Mokhnatkina $100.00 for $300.00
Janay Harding (+300) vs Marina Mokhnatkina $100.00 for $300.00
Janay Harding (+290) vs Marina Mokhnatkina $100.00 for $290.00
Janay Harding (+285) vs Marina Mokhnatkina $100.00 for $285.00
Janay Harding (+285) vs Marina Mokhnatkina $100.00 for $285.00
Nice one Jim!
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Old 03-30-2019, 01:34 PM   #48248
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Re: MMA Thread

I've ended up with (in order of sizing)

Johnson -112 average
Gaethje +110
Moroz +131 average
Barzola -117
Branch/Hermansson doesn't go the distance -166
Kenney +225

Johnson - not too old yet; has better wins, yes he has some weaknesses (mainly grappling related) but he brings pressure and solid boxing and has power. Emmett is coming off a year layoff and the first brutal loss of his career and he still only has one big win, the Lamas fight - Johnson's beaten guys like Poirier and Barboza and Tony Ferguson. Yes, he's lost a bunch along the way but mostly either to grapplers or elite fighters. Emmett is good, yes but in a pickem I like Johnson

Gaethje has a good stylistic MU, I think he can break Barboza ironically the same way Michael Johnson did when he fought Barboza - just walk forward throwing. Barboza needs his space to get his kicking game going, if Gaethje can eat a shot to give one, Barboza is more likely to break first in a war of wills or run out of gas. Yes, Barboza will knock him out cold with a spectacular wheel kick or something sometimes, but I make Gaethje a small favourite here on style alone - the two ways to beat Barboza are wrestling or walk him down and pressure him into the cage and NEVER give him space. Gaethje can do the latter.

Moroz - at the time I got it the steam was moving our way but the overall trend is to Moroz even if it's moved back a bit since - the other girl is untested, and Moroz is a solid mid-level UFC fighter who can both strike and grapple. We'll see I guess. I would have gone smaller here in hindsight but thought it was going to steam in a lot more.

Barzola - purely a steam move; market really likes him and I could get a good price.

Branch/Hermansson ends ITD - I might be overpaying at -166, but the more I think about the fight the more I think it ends in a finish. They're fairly big guys, Branch has been KO or get KO'd lately and Hermansson's last 6 fights haven't gone the distance going 4-2 in that time. Branch has been finished in 4 of his 5 losses in his career and in the UFC/WSOF he's finished half his wins. Plus with him getting older, my concerns about his chin/age don't matter if i'm betting the fight not to go the distance; he still has his offensive skillset and if his defense fails him I win. The only reason I didn't back Branch as a slight dog is that he's getting old and coming off a KO loss. Decided I preferred fight not to go the distance instead.

Kenney - apparently a decent prospect. I'm higher on Borg than most but he's had a lot going on in his personal life and obviously had a bad weight cut, so not the worst spot to fade him when his opponent is a decent dog. I like Borg and want him to succeed and it's my smallest bet so I don't mind who wins this one but I guess this is the smart play.

Johnson and Gaethje are my big bets this card; I think I go 2-0 a lot more than 0-2 there.

Good luck all
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Old 03-30-2019, 01:50 PM   #48249
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Re: MMA Thread

Don't see any lines on Woodley/Lawler, Askren/Masdival or Ngannou/JDS yet but I'll guess -200, -350, -300.
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Old 03-30-2019, 03:14 PM   #48250
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Re: MMA Thread

UFC on ESPN 2 Risk $4,946.55

Edson Barboza (-125) vs Justin Gaethje $250.00 for $200.00
Edson Barboza wins by KO/TKO/DQ (+130) $77.50 for $100.75
Edson Barboza/Justin Gaethje starts round 2 (-325) $162.50 for $50.00
Edson Barboza/Justin Gaethje Over 1½ (-169) $169.49 for $100.00
Edson Barboza/Justin Gaethje Over 1½ (-190) $95.00 for $50.00
Edson Barboza/Justin Gaethje fight ends in round 3 (+430) $25.00 for $107.50
Edson Barboza/Justin Gaethje fight ends in round 4 (+615) $25.00 for $153.75
Edson Barboza/Justin Gaethje fight ends in round 5 (+935) $25.00 for $233.75

Jack Hermansson (-125) vs David Branch $250.00 for $200.00
Jack Hermansson wins by KO/TKO/DQ (+200) $50.00 for $100.00
Jack Hermansson/David Branch Under 2½ (-124) $124.00 for $100.00

Michael Johnson (-105) vs Josh Emmett $210.00 for $200.00
Michael Johnson wins by TKO/KO (+260) $40.00 for $104.00
Josh Emmett wins inside distance (+320) $65.00 for $208.00
Michael Johnson/Josh Emmett Under 2½ (+142) $100.00 for $142.00

Michelle Waterson (+140) vs Karolina Kowalkiewicz $200.00 for $280.00
Michelle Waterson wins by submission (+600) $25.00 for $150.00

Paul Craig (+150) vs Kennedy Nzechukwu $100.00 for $150.00
Paul Craig wins by submission (+315) $40.00 for $126.00
Paul Craig/Kennedy Nzechukwu Over 1½ (-122) $122.00 for $100.00

Sheymon Moraes +3½ points (-160) vs Sodiq Yusuff $160.00 for $100.00
Sheymon Moraes/Sodiq Yusuff Over 2½ (-122) $122.00 for $100.00

Jessica Aguilar +3½ points (-170) vs Marina Rodriguez $85.00 for $50.00

Ross Pearson +3½ points (-120) vs Desmond Green $120.00 for $100.00
Ross Pearson/Desmond Green Over 2½ (-333 $250.00 for $75.00
Ross Pearson/Desmond Green Over 2½ (-350) $262.50 for $75.00

Enrique Barzola (-115) vs Kevin Aguilar $114.94 for $100.00
Enrique Barzola scorecards = no action (+215) $100.00 for $215.00

Kevin Holland/Gerald Meerschaert won't go 3 round distance (-225) $225.00 for $100.00

Casey Kenney (+250) vs Ray Borg $200.00 for $500.00
Casey Kenney scorecards = no action (+220) $100.00 for $220.00
Casey Kenney/Ray Borg Under 2½ (+215) $100.00 for $215.00

Sabina Mazo/Maryna Moroz Over 2½ (-370) $370.37 for $100.00

Alex Perez -3½ points (-175) vs Mark De La Rosa $131.25 for $75.00
Alex Perez wins by TKO/KO (+380) $20.00 for $76.00
Alex Perez wins inside distance (+145) $30.00 for $43.50

Parlay:
Alex Perez (-360) vs Mark De La Rosa + Edson Barboza/Justin Gaethje won't go 5 round distance (-515) $400.00 for $210.36
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