I find it interesting that you mention no way Cowboy wins the LW title as if you think Conor will.

It's not a hard sell at all. The fans are behind Ceronne huge right now and he's a perfect B side to this fight. If you look at the top 15 LWs there are very few fights that will sell as much as this one. The only other reasonable matchups for Conor that are likely to sell as well are Justin Gaethje or Nate Diaz.

On the other hand, if you are interested in burying Conor with another (likely dominant) loss then we can add Khabib, Ferguson, GSP, and Holloway to the list.

Conor is a stylistic fav vs Tony probably acting like he can't win the title is crazy and he has a punchers chance against khabib which is basically all anyone has against khabib.

How does cowboy beat any of the top 3 at lw I guess he could capitalise on a Conor mistake or tko Tony maybe with a head kick but it'd be one of the biggest upsets ever people are acting like Conor is some can because khabib dominated him when he's the only guy to take a round off khabib since he was a lot greener vs tibau

I love max but acting like he's a huge fav over Conor is very questionable too max has the cardio and more volune but Conor has the power and they both have ridiculous accuracy and volume striking

Honestly I think Conor is a fav over any non khabib fighter at 155 with Tony being close to a pickem obviously if it goes deep Tony wins but he's so hittable I think Conor ends him in r1

You vastly overrate Conor. Conor's power is great when he's fighting midgets (his word, not mine) but even then he's not really a one punch knockout fighter given he's only had one in the UFC.

He's still relatively unproven at 155lbs, with only 2 wins since moving up from 145lbs. One was a quality win vs Alvarez but it's not like Alvarez was a world beater. He was 4-3-1 in the UFC (should have been 4-4). Conor's other win was a WW win vs Nate who shouldn't even be in the top 15. About a year ago I looked at the UFC roster and found more than 1 fighter outside the top 15 that would be favored vs Nate. I'd be surprised if that's not still the case.

I agree if you just consider how hittable Tony is, Conor would seem to be a bad matchup for Tony. That's on paper, but in real life I see Tony's cardio being a huge sylistic matchup issue for Conor. Conor has never had a finish beyond the 2nd round. On the one hand that's a huge credit to him for destroying his opponents so quickly. On the other hand we all know he fades as the fight goes on. The guys he was destroying weren't Tony though (ie a guy that's both taller than him with a longer reach).

You'd have to be super optimistic to think fighting Tony is going to be anything less than a war. Tony has never been knocked out in his career and never finished in the UFC. He's won 11 lightweight fights in a row, and if you include the Ultimate Fighter he's won 17 of 18 fights with the promotion. Tony's a wrestling champ, obviously has better ground skills, and has more diversity in his strikes. He'd have to make adjustments but beating Conor is not rocket science..maybe for smaller fighters but it shouldn't be THAT difficult for Tony to gameplan.

Also, I think at this point Conor's hunger in this sport has to be questioned. That's not meant as a slight to him nor a reflection of his fight vs Khabib in which he actually performed a bit better than I expected. It's near impossible to have that same drive/desire after you've won as much money as he has. It's not just that though. He's a very driven person in general but much of his energy seems to be going to other pursuits such as his whiskey business. This game is ever evolving and if you're not putting in 110% you're going to get passed up and the LW division is killer.

Sure, there are some guys in the division that Conor is a clear favorite vs but I see a lot of toss up fights for him in the division which is pretty much how his post featherweight career has gone thus far. He lost to Nate Diaz ffs, and that's before he took a year off to do boxing and start selling whiskey etc.

Obviously you must think he'd just KO Gregor Gillespie in round 1. lol Nearly every fight in the division would be a war and while early knockouts would come at times expecting them in this division is delusional.

I think Gillespie would be much more difficult for Conor then Tony but I do still think Tony should be the favorite to win. I do agree that Tony is super hittable and arguably a lot slower too imo. Not saying it will be a walk in the park for either, I can see both winning tbh, if we get the Conor that fought Khabib, then Tony will put him away but if we get a hungry Conor that fought Eddie, then I'm thinking Conor gets it done. Conor is def not a can, he's got mad skills, can take a punch, very good boxing skills, distance, ability to land shots while stepping out of range, angles, footwork, decent ground game, good kicking game, lots of different approaches, keeps fighters guessing, makes fighters fight his game, makes them impatient, he's a very intelligent fighter, which should def not be overlooked and he got a lot of heart too (despite taking flack for tapping, which you can argue takes more heart than not tapping and he does accepts fights)

Gillespie is legit but let's see him against a top 10 fighter first. He's definitely top 15 but we don't know how good yet

I maintain Conor tkos Tony in the first but obviously if it goes past 3 rounds he's in trouble

Thinking about it some more I just think we probably have fundamental differences about how we view Conor. When he was at 145lbs I viewed him as a world beater. If anyone had beaten him, aside from Aldo, I would have been very shocked at the time. That's similiar to how I view Khabib. If anyone were to beat him, aside from perhaps Tony, it would be very surprising.

I just see lots of tough fights for Conor. Even a guy like Ceronne. Do I favor Conor? Sure. Would I be surprised if Ceronne beat him? Absolutely not.

What kind of odds would you give me on Conor v Cerrone?

From what I've seen, Gillespie can go 3 rounds wrestle ****ing guys, not many can push a pace like that.

co-sign

Without thorough research, I believe Conor is 2-3 against fighters taller than him. Stoppage losses to Nate, Khabib, and Duffy. Decision wins over Nate and Max. Five tries and it would appear that his power loses a lot when he isn't throwing down.

Cerrone has a good three/four inches on Conor.

Please let me get Conor -150 one time lol (market has no big line around -180 ATM but only bovada has a line)

Nate 1 fight was Conor buying his own hype. Khabib is the lw goat almost certainly. Every other loss was when he was green.

Yes cerrone can beat Conor so can Tony but he's a favourite against any other fighter other than khabib at 155 and I still think he beats khabib 1 in 4 times or so which I don't have anyone else in the division doing other than Tony who probably beats khabib a similar amount

He needs to win his next fight to remain relevant and fight for the belt again I think he'll find the motivation to train properly

Going into that fight I figured Conor would beat Khabib 1 in 5 times so I guess we aren't that far off there.

A little surprised Demian Maia is favored against Lyman Good. I see it as (at best) a 50/50 fight, if Maia can get him down and hold him down then he can certainly submit him but Lyman is strong as a f***ing ox and has explosive power.

Lyman showed good takedown defense in his loss to Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos. Dos Santos's can't have very good takedowns though considering he was 1 for 7 in that fight and like 2 for 19 overall in the UFC.

That being said Maia's gone a ridiculous 0 for 49 in takedowns in his last 3 fights lol. It's amazing even posting that, although those were 3 great wrestlers: Usman, Woodley, and Covington. Usman has never been taken down, Woodley has been taken down once in the UFC (twice in StrikeForce). Covington was taken down 3 times by RDA and twice by Don Hyun Kim.

Lyman Good is a pressure fighter that can get a little wild and that can play right into Maia's hands. Like most of Maia's fights this fight should be won/lost based on whether Maia can get it to the ground or not.

Lyman Good is a huge step down in competition for Maia and a winnable fight even at forty years old. I think Maia gets him down on the first, second or third attempt and subs him in round 1 or 2.

Yeah the Maia vs Good fight is interesting.
Maia has had a rough run against top level wrestlers but before that he soundly out grappled Jorge Masvidal who is an upper tier wrestler.

Lyman Good is big and athletic with decent grappling but like Dreamcatcher mentioned above he can be wild which isn't a good attribute when your fighting Maia.

Took £100 on Charles Oliveira at 2.25
Haven't researched the fight at all but just going with the steam.

Was hoping to back Pico this weekend on Bellator but at 1.2, I don't see any value.

Hopefully Bader keeps on drifting in price.
Obviously Fedor has a punchers chance but I think Bader can outwork Fedor everywhere the fight goes and if he hits 1.4 or above I will be backing him.

im gonna bomb teymur, hoping i can get him as a dog. i think you have to bomb bader this week. both guys can knock each other out, but i'd rate bader as much more likely to put one on fedor. fedor cant win a decision, and i doubt fedor will have anything after round 1. cant see him winning more than 10-15% of the time. ive had fedor vs mir and chael, but i cant see him winning this one.

Yeah my main argument on Lyman Good stems from what a physical specimen he is. Sure, he's not a wrestler of the caliber of Woodley, Covington, or Usman but he has tons of power and is physically super strong.

Strength and athleticism matter when you're trying to hold someone down to submit him, sure Maia is world class in terms of technique but it's hard to get someone down and hold them down when they have such a material advantage in strength.

We'll see what happens, maybe this is a good opportunity to buy low on Maia when he's coming off 3 defeats against world class competition but at -170 you're not really buying that low on him IMO.

Sorry Swoop, I have to agree with the masses about Connor. Against any "even good wrestler with a gas tank (most do at 155" Connor is a dog. He's at best a punchers chance on the way in for the TD but after 10 minutes on his back he probably doesn't even have that. I think Tony is #1 or #2 in the division and the only one that can beat Khahib... yet in this match up Connor fairs a better chance then against a Gillespie.

The punching up aspect is significant as you lose a lot of power this way as opposed to punching downwards.

I think people are delusional if they think Conor isn't top 3 at lw. To be honest I wouldnt be surprised if he hurts and finishes cerrone in the first exchange and I think he finishes him in r1 close to half the time. I also think Conor decisions him a lot in a 3 rounder obviously 3 rounds is better for Conor than 5 as he doesn't have to conserve energy as much

Conor does well vs strikers and does very well vs strikers that are a lot smaller than him. Can we really say he with certainty that he does great vs strikers his own size? Couldnt finish Nate or Holloway, so why so confident he finishes either Cerrone or Tony?

Doubtful he beats any eilte wrestler, or in fact anybody with a heavy wrestling game plan! Conor's great at striking but everybody got the blueprint to beat him imo.

I don’t have access to multiple sites, but according to best fight odds there are some sites that have Hager as +500 and some have him -700. If true jump on it.

The best fight odds site is wrong. Hager aka WWE's Jack Swagger is a huge favorite at all the sites. -700 at the sites it lists him as being +515 and +530.

Kinda assumed as much, but without actually being able to verify thought I would throw it out there in case some buried Kiser on one of the sites causing a huge shift

Seeing someone with over ten thousand posts on an MMA sub-forum spelling Conor with two n's really irks me!

Ended up with £600 on Bader at 1.43.
Sad to see Fedor lose again like that and hopefully we dont see him fighting any top tier fighters.

Pico is going to need to adapt his style if wants to win a belt. Doesn't have the chin to be putting himself in fire fights with guys that can punch.