im so happy rn just won 2 grand, had max 3rd or 4th round ko/tko and just a tiny bit for breakeven on 2nd

that doc stoppage i was like WOOOOOOOOOOOOOO

Amazing. Can’t recall a better performance.

lol that would be sick. i wish conor would try 145 again but man he looks like a POW after that weight cut.

Me too

I think the only two paths to beating Holloway are be a better striker also with cardio or enough power to put him out early or be an ncaa wrestler and bjj black belt and be able to take him down at will

What a fight

Ortega is better than I thought he was i'll give him credit, but I still think guys like Moicano can beat him too. Amazing rally from Ortega in r3, what a fight. Max just does not lose in deep waters though

I think Max would have put him down in r5 anyway there with the damage he was taking in r4 or won another 10-8 at least.

Ended up hitting my r4 +2000

Evidently worries over Max Holloway's health were not as severe as the market thought

Winning card for me in the end due to hitting the r4 tko +2000 prop obv

we need max and conor or max and tony. both those fights are insane. think max breaks conor like 95x out of 100 tbh. khabib still does horrible things to max though, sad as i am to say this.

Is that the record for most significant strikes landed in a 4 rd fight?

Max in round 4 was my best outcome in the main event. My biggest UFC card ever, my biggest gambling day ever with a clean sweep on Glory this afternoon too.

Just watched Santos Manuwa, reminded me a lot of Wanderlei vs Stann two guys just throwing until someone drops. Santos has some scary power at LHW, he's too flawed to make a real run at the belt but watching him wreck top 10-15ish guys is very very fun.

Conor could put Max out cold in the first 2 rounds or so but after that Max would take over. Would love to see a rematch there and there's a good chance we get one eventually. There are still fights for Max at 145 if he can make the weight though he needs a few more title defenses to surpass Aldo as the FW GOAT. Moicano, Zabit, etc.

Max vs Tony is a recipe for an amazing fight, Tony might darce him but on the feet I give a small edge to Max he's just slightly more precise and slightly harder to hit

great picks man what a day

Congrats, yesterday was my biggest gambling day ever with a huge rugby day but its been a nice 24h period for me in general too with Max winning there and the r4 TKO prop hitting to give me a moderate profit on the UFC card

Only had two bets last night,
Joanna for £50 at 4.0
Max for £200 at 1.94

Great performance by Holloway don't think we'll get close to those odds last night for a while at 145 if he stays there.

Was wrong about Shevchenko not being able to bully Joanna in the clinch and ground as that was exactly what happened.

Looking ahead Iaquinta looks value was impressed with Iaquinta in the Khabib fight so odds of 3.65 look tempting at first glance although Kevin Lee is a beast.

Credit to Swoop, the Holloway fight went pretty much as he predicted, while I was on the fence I knew it was an outcome that wouldn't surprise me, imo Ortega had a failed game plan, I mean he should of been focused more on getting the fight in areas that are his strengths such as much more clinch and trying to get subs, taking his back, get to the fence, grind on Max, make him think he go for a sub here etc, at least threaten the takedown, the subs etc especially in the 1st few rounds. But he thought he could hang as a boxer and he got lit up badly, he had a good 3rd round and it looked for a moment that his shots were hurting Max but he couldn't continue the pace, he looked severely fatigued, credit to Max as he came out very strong early on and just lit him up badly, pretty sure getting 1/2'd in the face like that takes some zap away from you later on and it showed, Ortega was done after round 3.

Again Swoop saw that match-up perfectly, with Max severely outclassing him on the feet, by the time Ortega trying for subs/td he's 15 min in the fight and been lit up like a Christmas tree. Not the time anymore, your energy is gone, your strength gone, Max is getting stronger, while you are getting weaker, weak game plan imo!

Claudia looked terrible, her cardio is just gone completely, she would of usually ragdolled her for 2 out of 3 rounds and eased of a round but would of gotten several td's to win 2 out of 3, don't think I can rely on her anymore.

The Santos/ Manuwa fight had me sweating, Manuwa showed real heart, I'd of thought he'd be toast in the 1st but he showed real grit, feel for him, his boxing is very good, it's his chin that lets him down. Santos showed heart though too, and got it done, though I thought it would of been much easier, like as simple as that 1st round flurry and Manuwa would be done, even though it went on a little longer we got there!

Though I can see why some thought there was value on Manuwa.

Joanna a complete letdown, did she land anything significant? Everything was short, I think I seen 1 headkick land in 2nd, I think but she was not willing to engage, it seemed. She looked like 1 of those fighters that throws air, hoping the judges thinks she throwing volume, praying they give her rounds!

Yeah I used to be really high on Claudia but after she squeeked a decision against Esparza after I bet her heavy at short odds. I thought there was no way I was doing that again. She is going to be fade material in the future against any upper tier fighter in that division.

Well done Max believers... I too was in that camp and bet some r3r4r5 props on him. He actually yelled to Rogan that I'm going to finish him in r4 and technically he did... but what a chin on Ortega as it held until only 10 seconds left in the round and Max was on an absolute mission to get the job done in that round. I bet no fighter has landed as many shots in round 4 and 5 combined compared to Max's round 4 from hell and brimstone. What a performance.

lol at the commentary in this fight. "Ortega with a big shot" after Max landing half a dozen... seriously Joe has to be more balanced.

Joanna after r2 knew the outcome and did enough to survive but didn't really try to win due to self preservation. tbh I don't blame her... she needs to go back to 115 and fight the woman that beats Rose. Boring fight as they know each other too well and Shevenco's strength was the difference in the clinch/ground.

I predicted the Gunner fight well expecting Alex to start strong and slow down. That elbow damn.

The bodys shots from Max were impressive and although at the start could be ignored, that became less and less possible.

Max beats Tony Ferguson inside the distance.

Any one holding sterling (£) in any accounts, please move it out to USD or better USD/ CHF accounts before Tuesday, we have some major **** going on over here which has route path to 25% depreciation of the £ (source: BOE stability report hard brexit).

Looking forward to UFC on Fox 31:

Al Iaquinta is far too big of an underdog to Kevin Lee in this rematch. Al won the first fight and looked good in his sporadic appearances since then, even though Lee is very good, I have to hit Al at this price of +260.

Same for Edson Barboza as a +105 underdog to Dan Hooker. Hooker looks impressive and much improved lately but not sure Edson should be an underdog to him at this point, Hooker hasn't beaten someone with Edson's kicking game or experience.

rob font seems absolutely free. a lot i like on this card. two bellators and a ufc next week, not bad...

These guys are like mirrors to each other and are about the same size... Tony has shown more sub game... but perhaps Max has it to just doesn't show it.

Insane fight though and I really wonder who would back up who... as that's their styles.

Ended up with:
1k Joanna +300
1k Schevchenko -285 (after late money came in on JJ)
1k Bochniak
1k Katona
1k Theodorou
30k Holloway -102


I know I'm late to the party, but wow, what a fight. I ended up betting big on Max after he looked good at weigh ins. Maybe the presser I brought up in an earlier post was right after his flight, but I ended up believing in his health the next day. Someone brought up to me how Khabib was in the hospital after a weight cut and was fine and that gave me piece of mind too. Side note - what a warrior Ortega is. Super inspiring loss. Per his instagram:
"Doctor stopped it and I agree. Broken nose and a broken thumb. I was willing to die in there. Last night was Max's night. I'll be back. Thank you to everyone who has always believed in me and supported me."

He really does have all the heart.

I bet Rob Font at -155. He's taller and better striker than Sergio Pettis who moved up in weight for this bantamweight matchup and Sergio doesn't present some elite wrestling threat to break up Rob's rhythm either.

Surely you know how it looks to post that you bet $30k on the winning fighter two days after the fight ended, right?

Both not KO artists but I do think Max is a better striker and pressure fighter, cardio will be the same but Max will be better in the striking department. I also feel that Tony's chin is weaker, I'd be betting Max for sure.

Yeah, I remember you pointing it out prior to fight night, should of listened, owh well...

I admit to have overlooked that fight or watched it and thought she wasn't that bad but not anymore. She can ragdoll pretty much any1 in that div with cardio, and while she did struggle in later rounds her cardio was always decent but now it seems like she's just come off the juice and can't go 2 rounds anymore!

Got skinned alive on UFC 231, was my worst card ever. I deserved it though, I haven't been watching as much tape / working as hard on my bets and have been getting lazy. Decided I'm going to watch more tape and cut my bet sizes in half until I can pull out of this slump I've been in lately.

Watched a fair amount of tape today and agree with you guys on Font and Barboza. Also agree Iaquinta probably has some value at +250 although I'm not super enthusiastic about that one. I like Bobby Green at +240 a lot, Bobby Green has always been a bit of a headcase but the guy has + athleticism with good hands and toughness and Klose just isn't that good, there's no way he deserves to be that big of a favorite.

i think klose is good. if losing to david teymur makes someone not good, then that's gonna be an incredibly high bar to clear. bobby green has fast hands but his defense is atrocious and he's not even that good offensively.