Took a little Tokov when he was -105 just because it was offmarket, no real plays though for Bellator - would have considered Bader but the price wasn't good enough.

Fedor vs Sonnen is such a weird fight for us to be getting in 2018.

Bellator 208 Risk $325.00

Chael Sonnen (+210) vs Fedor Emelianenko $100.00 for $210.00
Cheick Kongo (-125) vs Timothy Johnson $125.00 for $100.00
Alexander Shlemenko (+120) vs Anatoly Tokov $100.00 for $120.00

i bombed fedor at -250, then bombed again at -180. no idea where that steam came from, awful awful matchup for chael p sonnen.

loved tokov too, was pretty big on him avg -150. had johnson -140, almosttttt hedged off on him for a small win when he closed at -190ish but i didnt and ate that one. overall good weekend, small win on bader as well.

i don't think the fight was fixed, but man that flip was pretty ****ing suspect

i really just think he made a business decision when it wasn't going his way

that move fedor did to get out from under Chael at the 4th min mark was unbelievable.

yeah that was either lucky or incredibly well-calculated chess move !
fedor knew that if he try that sweep grab under the leg and try to sweep left sonnen was gonna try to mount then he had to pull his reverse mount position really quick to caught him of guard !

For me watching Fedor fight is kind of sad as I remember watching him in his prime years of pride. His balance is really off and although he looks similar his power is so down from his glory years. Interesting that some people like DC, Chuck, Randy can hang on to their skill in later years while others can't.

Really like David Branch over Souza at +160. Post USADA and just age Souza has faded whereas Branch looked great against his last opponent.

Might add a TKO prop in there.

The Degen in me loves a Lewis/Branch/Rockhold/Stylebender parlay for a 34:1 return. I've been running super hot on UFC the last two months.

Looking ahead I do like the prices on both Branch and Brunson.
Taleb at at even money against Strickland sems decent also.

Rockhold out of 230 which is a pity since I wanted Weidman there as a dog

Not much standing out to me next two cards

Might consider Brunson at his current price, no real fight IQ but he's got power and can wrestle. Definitely a dog, but i'm not sure he's +280ish or more vs anyone really.

Holloway odds obv fantastic vs Ortega but with Holloway coming off the concussion injury i'd want to be sure he's healthy before going big.

i loaded up pretty big on arjun bhullar and volkan, i see arjun bhullar as a little better version of timothy johnson, only thing that worries me is his grappling won't be as effective vs a bigger heavyweight like golm, but i'm confident he can grind him out. volkan is just classes better than anthony smith who's hyped up right now but actually isn't very good. i understand middleweight is way better than LHW but eventually anthony smith is going to run into the brick wall and this fight is it. being suspect defensively will get him in trouble vs. volkan.

Glory 60 Risk $805.21

Cedric Doumbe/Jimmy Vienot Under 2½ (+190) $100.00 for $190.00

Yousri Belgaroui/Yassine Ahaggan Under 2½ (+120) $100.00 for $120.00

Abdellah Ezbiri (-149) vs Victor Pinto $149.25 for $100.00
Abdellah Ezbiri/Victor Pinto Over 2½ (-230) $230.00 for $100.00

Parlay:
Sofia Olofsson (-909) vs Cindy Silvestre + Yousri Belgaroui (-714) vs Yassine Ahaggan + Cedric Doumbe (-714) vs Jimmy Vienot $225.96 for $100.00

PFL 10 Risk $2859.00

Abusupiyan Magomedov (-280) vs Gasan Umalatov $280.00 for $100.00
Abusupiyan Magomedov (-280) vs Gasan Umalatov $280.00 for $100.00

Ray Cooper (-270) vs Jake Shields $270.00 for $100.00
Ray Cooper (-280) vs Jake Shields $280.00 for $100.00
Ray Cooper (-325) vs Jake Shields $325.00 for $100.00

Bruno Santos (-300) vs Sadibou Sy $300.00 for $100.00

Rick Story (-167) vs Handesson Ferreira ~$192.00 for ~$114.97
Rick Story (-200) vs Handesson Ferreira $200.00 for $100.00
Rick Story (-200) vs Handesson Ferreira $200.00 for $100.00

John Howard (-170) vs Eddie Gordon $170.00 for $100.00

Louis Taylor (-262) vs Rex Harris $262.00 for $100.00

Bojan Velickovic (+270) vs Abubakar Nurmagomedov $100.00 for $270.00

I took Bhullar and Smith. I get the argument for Oezdemir and infact am a big fan of his but I think Smith is very good and underrated and his length could cause Volkan problems. I think he’s maybe a slight dog but at +165 I see value. We’ll see what happens.

Also kind of like Ed Herman, he’s got good hands and Villante sucks, think he could sefinitelt catch him. Should be a good card.

Yeah i'd have snap taken Oezdemir before Smith's recent surge but I think I was wrong and Smith is better than I thought he was

I kind of want Martinez as a dog just to fade Soukhamthats absolute ****** fight IQ but I know nothing about him really beyond his record, he's basically just beaten nobodies, but nothing wrong with that I guess he doesn't have any real losses. Has anyone watched tape on him? Soukhamthath has nice hands but has absolutely ******ed fight IQ and is prone to giving fights away with inactivity if I remember some of his previous fights correctly

Nothing else standing out to me for this card and I don't think i'll get time to watch tape on Martinez, does anyone know if he's any good and is either active enough standing with volume to beat Souk if it goes the distance or has decent offensive takedowns?

the only thing that kind of worries me is that volkan doesn't have good cardio at all and the fact that light heavyweight is ****ing awful, but i still don't think smith will be able to withstand the round one barrage. smith's record is insanely unimpressive. his last 4 wins have been over 3 old guys and andrew sanchez who gassed himself out as he's prone to do.

What is best site for EU players to place MMA bets, Will hill just restricted me. Not too fond of 5dimes.

Eh. I agree Oezdemir has faced much stronger opposition, but at the same time all Smith can do is beat the guys they match him up with. It’d be one thing if he was going to three round decisions, but he absolutely smashed both Rashad and Shogun in the first round in his only two fights since moving up to LHW, which was a much needed move considering how big his frame is. I think it’s gonna be a close fight with a slight edge to Oezdemir, but I think its more analagous to QQ vs AK as opposed to a complete mismatch.

I'm usually all over Oezdemir. His 1 punch power is just freakish at LHW. As we saw with Cormier, he's not good against an aggressor. Anthony Smith on paper looks of similar stature but in the Octagon he's going to be much bigger and will most likely be the one to press the fight forward. I'm taking Smith & The under on rounds.

I'm also high on a Kattar/McGee/Villante/Misha Parlay.

Why does Chris Weidman deserve to be a favorite over Jacare?

Better striking and good enough wrestling that Jacare can't get it to the mat via offensive takedowns unless Weidman makes a mistake.

Weidman's main concern is cardio imo, but Weidman should beat Jacare especially in a 3 round fight - he shouldn't get as tired standing as he does grappling, back in the day he went 5 rounds with Machida mostly on the feet and the worst he gassed was against Mousasi and that was after dominating r1 with grappling then losing the striking battle in r2 until the weird finish that could have easily been a NC

I was a huge nonbeliever in Weidman during his title reign (I faded him in most of his defenses but amusingly backed him vs Rockhold) but since he's lost the belt he's gone from overrated to underrated imo

If we look at who he's lost to he had a close fight with Rockhold until he threw the spinning wtf attack and got taken down and obviously from bottom position vs an elite grappler he gets owned (same would happen vs Jacare, but it's very tough for him to get taken down and as far as I remember nobody in the UFC has dominated him with takedown offense, the Rockhold fight takedown was from when he was off balance from a spinning attack he'll never throw again)

The Romero fight was one round each and he got caught by 'r3 Romero' who can beat the **** out of anyone and Romero is the consensus #2 in the division after Whittaker anyway losing two close decisions to the champ so it's not like it's a bad loss

In the Mousasi fight he dominated Mousasi in the first with offensive grappling then gassed and got beaten up on the feet until the weird finish and Mousasi has among the best technical striking at MW.

I think the fight will go something along the lines of Weidman walks Jacare down conservatively and outstrikes him with volume/slightly better technical standup while using his TDD defensively - I think the fight will be boring and terrible most likely. I think the only two ways Weidman will lose are if he gasses or if he makes a mistake and ends up on bottom position or lets Jacare take his back standing or whatever but that would probably involve him getting rocked standing since his movement on the feet is pretty good.

What would be interesting is if Weidman used his wrestling to put Jacare on his back and not get subbed but i'm not sure that's a good gameplan given his cardio concerns and Jacare's BJJ.

Overall I think i'd make Weidman about a -160 favourite which is pretty similar to where the lines are (i'd make him -200 if I didn't have concerns about his cardio even in a 3 rounder)

Weidman's getting up there in age at 34, but Jacare is 4 years older at 38 so is also the more likely of the two to have experienced age related decline since they last fought. It's easy to forget that Jacare is old.

Probably Pinnacle if you don't like props or bet365/unibet if you do

Jacare without the juice isn't looking great. He was exhausted in his last fight and at 38 his better days are behind him.

Thanks will try uni, 365 and pinnacle don't acccept dutchies