Went 0-3

Second card in a row I have been wiped out.
Beat the closing line on Esparza and Price but didn't look like value watching the fights.

Probably time to load up on Mcgregor and trade out near fight time for a nice arb.

Good card for me, went 3-1 on straight up picks and 0-1 on props, but booked a nice profit. Wish I'd bet more on Abdul and Aljamain. Also, Sabah Homassi is a guy to keep an eye on, even though he lost both fights I was impressed with him when I was scouting Abdul.

Looking ahead, I know he's already a pretty significant favorite but can someone walk me through a scenario where Olynick beats Mark Hunt? Feels like a horrible matchup for him stylistically, he's a submission specialist who can't box for sh*t against a guy who is a world class kickboxer and is practically impossible to take down unless you're a roided up Brock Lesnar.

Also, I was wrong on Till. I do think the weight cut took quite a bit out of him, but Tyron looked the best I've ever seen him and I think in retrospect he deserved to be at least a 2-1 favorite. Live and learn, I suppose.

Congratulations

I tailed his pick at the last minute. So thanks Jimm.

Woodley looked great. I am surprised Till offered no defence to the darce as it wasn't even remotely hidden and by then his head had cleared.

Some awesome finishes and turned out to be a fun card to watch from bell to bell.

It was a moderately losing card for me overall, but the Suarez TKO/KO prop was the best value of the card at that +1165 price.

Hmmm. A fair amount of money coming in for Oliynyk to win against Hunt?

https://twitter.com/WarriorBetMMA/st...21795438059520
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/UFC_Fi...nt_vs._Oliynyk

Will be an interesting watch but I feel kind of scared for any non-Russian fighters involved on this card.

Hunt v. Oliynyk is going to be the fight of the year for my dear little heart. Oliynyk's squeeze is so freaking scary. If lazy Mark shows up, he dies on the ground. Hunt probably K.O's him though, first round.

anyone have any lean on jan/krylov?

Would snap Hunt over Oleinik if it wasn't in Russia but if any country's ripe for corruption in MMA fights even in the UFC it's Russia. I still think Hunt knocks Oleinik out and i've been pretty high on Oleinik, but Hunt's grappling defense is good enough these days that while he'll always be taken down by anyone with NCAA level credentials i'm not sure Oleinik is athletic enough to get him down or fast enough to get in close on him and grab an ezekiel choke or whatever standing then pull guard. Probably not going to bet it at the current price but I think I like Hunt. He'll get beaten by young and hungry athletic guys but I think Oleinik is the right type of matchup for him - the Russian losing in the main event in Russia feels wrong though, I don't think Hunt would ever be the type to throw a fight but if there's one event I don't want to bet against the hometown guy in the main event in... that said at least the fight won't go the distance for a judges robbery as it'll be Hunt KO or Oleinik sub. Pretty heavy steam on Oleinik, I guess Hunt will be lost on the ground against him but how does Oleinik get it there because Hunt's knocking him out within a round or two at the most if it stays standing

Leaning Krylov vs Blachowicz I think he's just the better fighter

I like Arlovski over Adburakhimov, I think he can keep it standing and win a decision or accumulation of damage TKO. That said, if the fight is close, Arlovski could easily be robbed by the judges although I figure he's at least Eastern European and has a decent Russian fanbase probably so he's less likely to get robbed than a random western european or american or brazilian on the card if it goes the distance

Thinking Mutrazaliev maybe against CB, Dollaway is still dealing with back issues from his elevator accident and he's never had a chin if it's a striking exchange and the Russian can grapple apparently with a sambo background if he tries to NCAA decision him.

Thinking Hunt, Arlovski, Murtazaliev, Krylov at first glance and leaving the rest of the fights alone as they're either lopsided or I don't know enough about the fighters

I doubt the Hunt or Arlovski price gets much worse, Arlovski gets to a pickem maybe at worst. Krylov seems to be moving in a bit so I might get on early if that seems to be continuing tomorrow but leaving it for now. Murtazaliev I should probably watch some tape on but I kind of want to fade CB against 'random unknown Russian' at this stage in his career in Russia

I bet on Jan but that's more based on his track record than anything, anyone that beats Jimi Manuwa is really f*cking good. But I haven't had time to watch a ton of tape on him, so it's not a super strong conviction pick.

Also like Mark Hunt (a lot at -170, my average price on him is -220) and Shamil Abdurakhimov (not a super strong conviction pick, but I think he's very smart and an accurate puncher fighting in front of his home crowd and he's fighting a guy who is quite chinny in Andre Arlovski.)

Does anyone know how the judging is going to work in Russia btw and where they're coming from? That could potentially be a big factor.

And Swoop, I agree there could be some f*ckery afoot with Mark Hunt. I think it's very unlikely and he doesn't seem like the type to throw a fight, but he's bitched about fighter pay in the past, it's in Russia, and anytime line moves this dramatically it's a little suspicious. Also don't know about the judging situation. But there is definitely at least a possibility that the fix could be in, I remember thinking at the time that Chael Sonnen might have deliberately thrown his fight against Tito Ortiz, so you never know, particularly with older fighters. Mark Hunt doesn't seem like the type, he seems like a pure fighter and an honorable dude, but you never know.

But, assuming there's no behind the scenes tomfoolery, I think this is a fight that would be very difficult for Mark Hunt to lose unless he's completely fallen off the wagon. I re-watched Olynick versus Curtis Blaydes fight the other night (who is Mark Hunt's closest comparable I think in terms of body type, even though Blaydes is much more of a wrestler) if he fights like that against Hunt he's going to get flat lined. Obviously if he gets him down he can choke him unconscious, but Mark Hunt is a big boy - it's not so easy to take down a 265 pound man whose only 5'10, since he has a very low center of gravity.

Assuming everything is on the up and up, I think Mark Hunt is like a 75% favorite, so IMO there's definitely some value there at -170.

beside the ring girl , there's no chick's in this event't...nothing caught my eye but i see krylov winning by eye poke

Glory 58 Risk $3153.00

Alex Pereira (-160) vs Simon Marcus $400.00 for $250.00
Alex Pereira (-161) vs Simon Marcus $402.50 for $250.00
Alex Pereira (-180) vs Simon Marcus $180.00 for $100.00
Simon Marcus (+250) vs Alex Pereira ~$45.50 for ~$113.75
Alex Pereira/Simon Marcus Under 4½ (+135) $100.00 for $135.00
Alex Pereira/Simon Marcus Under 4½ (+140) $100.00 for $140.00

Jahfarr Wilnis/Benjamin Adegbuyi Over 2½ (-115) $115.00 for $100.00
Jahfarr Wilnis/Benjamin Adegbuyi Over 2½ (-120) $120.00 for $100.00
Jahfarr Wilnis/Benjamin Adegbuyi Over 2½ (-125) $125.00 for $100.00

Omari Boyd (+170) vs Richard Abraham $100.00 for $170.00
Omari Boyd (+155) vs Richard Abraham $100.00 for $155.00
Omari Boyd (+152) vs Richard Abraham $100.00 for $152.00
Richard Abraham (-115) vs Omari Boyd ~$136.50 for ~$118.70

Bailey Sugden (-133) vs Anvar Boynazarov ~$156.00 for ~$117.29

Junior Tafa (-333) vs Haze Wilson ~$390.00 for ~$117.12
Junior Tafa/Haze Wilson Under 1½ (-170) $127.50 for $75.00

Troy Jones (-250) vs Casey Greene ~$292.50 for ~$117.00

Omar Moreno (-130) vs Mike Lemaire ~$162.50 for ~$116.91

Krylov steaming hard, was leaning that side anyway so got on at -138

Aleinik steam too intense to back Hunt even though he should be a bigger fav if everything's above board with the fight and no major injuries etc

Decided to leave the other spots for now, may still fire Arlovski but holding off for the time being. Happy with a medium to big bet on Krylov

so many russian fighters ive never heard of, outside of the the bigger russian names like taisumov/khabilov and oleinik. the big names have normal lines at least.

the undercard russians though....are all huge -450 to -700 favorites? theres gotta be some decent value in some of those underdogs ill have to see.

maybe the CB dollaway one hes only +150/-175 at least lols

CB's just not good though. Granted I know literally nothing about his opponent but do you remember Mayhem rocking him on one leg? He's so chinny and he's been knocked out in 4 of his last 12 fights plus had the elevator accident that gave him permanent back damage. There's no way i'm backing CB in Russia against an unknown Russian unless the Russian is a complete can

Has anyone watched tape on Murtazaliev? I don't really have time to before the card

For the time being i'm just on Krylov

Also I know Arlovski hasn't won by TKO since 2015 when he fought Browne and tends to fight more conservatively these days but I feel like +700ish may be value on Arlovski by TKO, it is HW after all and Shamil's been TKO'd twice in the last 3 years, granted once via GnP

Going to take a bit more of a look at the rest of the card and see if I want any spots

the thing with krylov is that he hadn't fought top caliber in a while so his record is a bit biased...i dont think he can win standing up !
i favor arlowsky even if he prooven to be chinny..his defence is getting a lot better then before , he is also a dedicated athlete "
green opponent miss weight by 5 pounds...so ist even more likely that green get ko early in the fight which is btw against my past prediction on that fight !
jordan Jonhson opponent, seems to be a good underdog imo !! cardio vs power
& that guy marcin...look in sick shape at the weight in

is it just so much worth it to bet on less than 3 to 1 underdog longterm?
then trying to be accurate on winner's?

It doesn't matter whether you bet dogs favs or pickems long term, what matters is that your fighters winning percentage exceeds the profit point for the odds

For example at -110 if you're winning at 52.5% of the time or more you're ok, at -333 you need to be winning about 77% of the time or more, at -150 you need to be winning over 60%, at +220 if you're winning over 31.25% of the time you're good, etc

You can bet favourites or underdogs profitably, the thing is you need to be able to accurately estimate winning percentages for fighters, then find a price that makes the wager +EV

Like if I think Krylov wins 60% of the time (which is about what I do think) the -138 I got is good, but I would have been in much better shape if i'd bet the early line when he was about -120, I didn't think he was going to steam as much. Now he's actually at -150 on Pinnacle which would be about the breakeven point, and if he moved to say -155 I would think that would be a slightly losing bet

It isn't about raw numbers of winners and losers, it's about getting a price that is +EV (and obviously if you're handicapping rather than trying to beat market closers, your ability to estimate winning percentages needs to be better than the market's)

Obviously on underdogs you need to be correct less often in order to show a profit, so a lot of people who win in MMA tend to bet a lot of underdogs or props but there are plenty of spots where it can be profitable to bet favourites too if their winning percentage exceeds the price offered

Great post swoop...that's the real deal right there! that's certainly truer if you only bet on single !
personally i can afford multiple & parlays swing as i dont bet 100 + each game , fight ect +other form of gambling's
in the end if you only pick's underdog across the board easy money

Hunt out to 1.8 seems insane.
Any injury rumours or anything?

dunno whats up with that line but im gonna bomb -125. hurting curtis blaydes on the feet is like knocking out anyone else so i think he's got a little left in the tank.

No and thats why i'm scared it's a fix or undisclosed injury

Hunt did mention he has ongoing hand issues but said nothing specific or unusual for the fight in an interview

I just got Krylov by TKO at +600 at one of my locals but then got greedy and hit it a second time and looks like they removed it for offmarket line so probably screwed myself there

UFN 136 Risk $3878.00

Mark Hunt (-121) vs Aleksei Oleinik $605.00 for $500.00
Mark Hunt/Aleksei Oleinik Over 1½ (+105) $100.00 for $105.00

Jan Blachowicz (+140) vs Nikita Krylov $200.00 for 280.00
Jan Blachowicz (-105) vs Nikita Krylov $210.00 for $200.00
Jan Blachowicz wins by submission (+696) $50.00 for $348.00
Jan Blachowicz wins in round 3 (+1300) $15.00 for $195.00
Jan Blachowicz wins by TKO/KO/DQ in round 3 (+2400) ~$13.00 for ~$312.00
Jan Blachowicz/Nikita Krylov Over 1½ (-155) $155.00 for $100.00

Andrei Arlovski (+110) vs Shamil Abdurakhimov $200.00 for $220.00

Thiago Alves (+420) vs Alexey Kunchenko $100.00 for $420.00

C.B. Dollaway (+150) vs Khalid Murtazaliev $200.00 for $300.00

Petr Yan wins inside distance (-185) $92.50 for $50.00
Petr Yan/Jin Soo Son Under 1½ (-115) $115.00 for $100.00

Kajan Johnson wins by 3 round decision (+1050) vs Rustam Khabilov $30.00 for $315.00

Mairbek Taisumov wins by TKO/KO (+105) $50.00 for $52.50
Mairbek Taisumov/Desmond Green Under 2½ (-125) $125.00 for $100.00

Marcin Prachnio (+360) vs Magomed Ankalaev $100.00 for $360.00
Marcin Prachnio/Magomed Ankalaev won’t go 3 round distance (-155) $77.50 for $50.00

Jordan Johnson (-250) vs Adam Yandiev $500.00 for $200.00
Jordan Johnson wins by TKO/KO (+500) $50.00 for $250.00
Jordan Johnson wins in round 3 (+850) $20.00 for $170.00

Ramazam Emeev wins by TKO/KO (+450) $50.00 for $225.00
Ramazan Emeev/Stefan Sekulic Under 2½ (+102) $100.00 for $102.00

Merab Dvalishvili/Terrion Ware Over 2½ (-240) $240.00 for $100.00

Parlay:
Merab Dvalishvili (-470) vs Terrion Ware + Mairbek Taisumov (-420) vs Desmond Green + Petr Yan (-750) vs Jin Soo Son $300.00 for $210.52