yahya is my guy and i've ridden him super hard and sanders has some serious problems, but i think sanders cruises here. awful matchup for yahya who can't really exploit sanders' questionable chin. Think this is similar to the joe soto fight but even more lopsided for sanders. sanders is really athletic with good wrestling base, not someone that yahya can really get down and control. gotta watch some tape but my lean is sanders is fairly large favorite. sanders beat the **** out of alcantara and then got kneebarred. if it was a video game alcanatara would have had like 2% healthbar left. sanders should be smart though and resist the ground at all costs.

we've seen this archetype too many times. one dimensional unathletic bjj guys who struggle vs athletic wrestlers. it also kind of has to be noted sanders is the type of guy to lose fights he has no business losing, so he's never a safe bet.

i already have loaded up on michael johnson, think hes absolutely free this card. betting on sanders and michael johnson cant be good for your blood pressure though. two guys who can be cruising and lose the fight at any moment. also i bombed eryk anders at -500ish across a few sites knowing that he's gonna end up at -800ish

I also think Mitrione is great vallue at 2.75.
Not backed him yet as its a while away.

Will be backing Conor pretty heavily in the next few weeks also. Not going to outright bet on this fight but trade it. He is going to get backed heavily nearer fight time if previous trends are anything to go by.

For the next UFC card Moraga at 2.25 looks pretty good to me. Will take Ellenberger at 7.8 inside the distance also even if he is shot at this point, he can still crack.

The Khabib that fought AL is not dangerous enough to beat Conor.

Conor will beat Khabib by KO.

If the pre nate 1 fight conor got in with Khabib, Khabib would grid him into the mat and the fight would be over inside 2 rounds.

This is a guy that trained hands at the highest level of boxing and has taken a lot from that experience, coupled with knowing what time it is vs Khabib.

its a lot easier conor to train for Khabib than it is for Khabib to train for conor.

This is a good fight but in theory a guy with the striking, timing, movement and run up to Khabib


This is going to be the best fighter that Khabib has ever fought, going the *** disstance vs Al Iaquinta a lovely tight compact nice movement fighter, smashing him, but not finishing over 5rds? we like to see this before betting him vs conor?

Conor is the better fighter, all this mauling sht any way, I hope conor gets the KO, conor is no bruce lee roy, he is the real legit sht bruce lee of today, adjustable, watching, testing, the whole tapestry of weapons.

Conor grew as a fighter a lot post nate 1, it was his bruce lee vs jack wang version wake up call (bruce lee got surprised in cardio issues even thou super fit) and other things unexpected, like conor landing his best shots but the fighter still being there, what do you do when that happens, he had to work on those aspects.

Khabib has a nice big target to hit, his head, he has a nice big head and chin to get rocked, he will get smashed and if he breaks even a little bit some thing in the perfect timing will land behind it, directly.

I like betting conor.

Lot of betting money will pour in on conor around fight time.

I sincerely hope that everyone thinks that way and Conor gets bet all the way down to be the favorite come fight time

I agree, I'm on Khabib very heavily already and anticipate upping the ante as we get closer to fight week.

That would make sense re Yahya if it's a stylistic matchup issue. As I said need to watch tape before considering it appreciate the input.

I do think Michael Johnson is my second favourite spot of the card, no real fight IQ (except he did show some in the Barboza fight a while back) and he makes mistakes, but on skillset he's better than Fili and TAM guys don't really make huge improvements between fights, at least they haven't since Bang left.

Also I was very high on Gall before his first loss, but i'm not sure he deserves to be that big a fav vs Sullivan, yeah Sullivan isn't great and this is supposed to be a rehab win for Gall, but the way he turned and ran from strikes under pressure in his last fight was very Lesnar-esque, Gall does not like to be hit and will need to learn to deal better with pressure if he's going to be a long term UFC fighter, he's great when he's the one swinging the hammer and he's very offensively talented for a guy at his level but he did not handle pressure well vs Brown when put on the back foot, so while he probably is the favourite I doubt it's this big a fav. I mean the Sage win was impressive, but the Brown loss was very unimpressive, Gall is still green and has a decent ceiling but it's hard to know how good he is right now, hopefully he's learned from his loss but if he hasn't i'm not sure he's -300 vs any UFC level fighter yet

i'm kind of leaning towards cortney casey. her weakness is her tdd, but don't think hill really has that in her game

I haven't had a chance to watch enough tape on this to have a firm conviction yet, but I was thinking the same thing as I watched quite a bit of tape on her leading up to her last fight against Waterson. She's a very linear fighter which is a weakness, but she's big and strong and can bully people.

Angela Hill is athletic but she's small and just doesn't seem that skilled. Think this fight is at best a pick'em for her, certainly don't think she deserves to be favored.

Also, I'm a huge Israel Adessanya fan and think the guy is legit, but there has to be value on Brunson at +245 against him. Israel's weakness is the wrestling game and while he has that crazy athleticism where he can seemingly just pop back up to his feet, he's never faced a guy like Brunson before, and he struggled against Marvin Vettori who is FAR inferior to Brunson. Brunson is damn good and this seems like a very good buy low opportunity on him.

If Brunson goes wrestle heavy its great value.
But still he is super vunerable against any decent strikes and Adesanya will light him up.

Also given his bad fight IQ you can't rule him swinging wildly with his chin up and getting laid out.

I think it's pretty much 100% that Brunson is going to implement a wrestling based approach, low fight IQ or not. That's not to say he can't get caught, but at +245 there is plenty of room for error.

I like the Brunson side at that price too I think although I did miss the Adesanya/Tavares fight. Brunson has fight IQ issues, but is a super talented and well rounded fighter, people forget he was beating Romero and Whittaker for a large portion of those fights. He has no fight IQ though so who knows

I think I like Weidman as a dog to Rockhold too despite the result of their first fight. Rockhold's weaknesses are a lot more known now, he has a weak chin and backs straight up when pressured. Weidman can use his wrestling defensively and just move forward to try and trade strikes in the pocket, he knows at range Rockhold can hit him with a better kick-based attack but if it's eat a shot to give one, Rockhold will always drop before Weidman

The only real issue is cardio but Weidman should be able to keep it together if it's a standup based fight. I actually think Weidman is a small fav vs Rockhold

^^ you are taking khabib right? even though you want conor to win and its good for MMA? i see it as the same way.

im feeling the hype already for this card lol

Thinking about taking the under 2.5 rounds at the moment. I think one way or the other it's going to be a one sided beatdown. Conor knocks Khabib out or Khabib taps him after a round or two of GnP/sub attempts. I'd say Conor r1 KO or Khabib r2 sub are my most likely outcomes so thinking u2.5 or u3/3.5 rounds maybe

I'd take Conor at like +175 or Khabib at evens pretty happily, happy to pass at current prices

Backed Darrion Caldwell for £300 at 1.4 against Noad Lahat.
Will Hill released early odds and I reckon he will be closer to 1.2 by the time of the fight.

Just checked best fight odds and he is 1.19 on 5dimes, still 1.4 if people have access to Will Hill.

PFL 6 Risk $2096.40

Pavel Kusch (+109) vs Ray Cooper ~$100.80 for ~$109.87

Bojan Velickovic (+140) vs Magomed Magomedkerimov $100.00 for $140.00

Kayla Harrison (-475) vs Jozette Cotton $237.50 for $50.00
Kayla Harrison (-750) vs Jozette Cotton $375.00 for $50.00

Joao Zeferino (-245) vs Yuri Villefort ~$277.20 for ~$113.14
Joao Zeferino (-310) vs Yuri Villefort $232.50 for $75.00

Rick Story (-350) vs Carlton Minus $175.00 for $50.00

Herman Terrado (+264) vs Jake Shields ~$44.10 for ~$116.42
Herman Terrado (+200) vs Jake Shields $50.00 for $100.00

John Howard (+175) vs Bruno Santos $100.00 for $175.00

Shamil Gamzatov (-215) vs Rex Harris $107.50 for $50.00

Louis Taylor (-225) vs Andre Lobato $112.50 for $50.00
Louis Taylor (-230) vs Andre Lobato $115.00 for $50.00

Eddie Gordon (+161) vs Gasan Umalatov ~$69.30 for ~$111.57

Added:

Rick Story (-315) vs Carlton Minus $157.50 for $50.00

ellenberger lines seem hyped to me, i have no idea who's his opponent but he ain't look good on his ufc profile loll JE can pack a punch JE ko / ko /under

Added:

Pavel Kusch (+125) vs Ray Cooper $100.00 for $125.00

line seems fine to me. couldn't imagine backing jake ellenburger to win a fight in 2018, especially vs. a super tough durable guy like barbarena who can maintain a pretty high pace. in fact i really dont see how jake wins unless he hits some miracle shot.

Bellator 204 Risk $1,559.55

Darrion Caldwell (-245) vs Noad Lahat ~$288.20 for ~$117.63
Darrion Caldwell (-321) vs Noad Lahat ~$373.35 for ~$116.31
Darrion Caldwell (-460) vs Noad Lahat $345.00 for $75.00
Darrion Caldwell/Noad Lahat won’t go 3 round distance (+150) $50.0 for $75.00

Ricky Bandejas (+176) vs James Gallagher $100.00 for $176.00
Ricky Bandejas (+175) vs James Gallagher ~$65.50 for ~$114.63

Demarques Jackson (+135) vs Bryce Logan $50.00 for $67.50
Demarques Jackson (+100) vs Bryce Logan $50.00 for $50.00

Romero Cotton (-475) vs Willie Whitehead $237.50 for $50.00

CES MMA 52 Risk $410.00

Jason Norwood (+192) vs Jeremiah Wells $50.00 for $96.00
Jason Norwood (+190) vs Jeremiah Wells $50.00 for $95.00
Jason Norwood (+190) vs Jeremiah Wells $100.00 for $190.00

Ron Stallings (-105) vs Nah-Shon Burrell $105.00 or $100.00
Ron Stallings (-105) vs Nah-Shon Burrell $105.00 or $100.00

good point, but that's likely JE last fight on his contract...i think he had more fight in him ! not a safe bet to say the least!

next cards i think perez is a safe pick ,i watch some of his fights...he fought anders for 3 rounds and match strength for strength...really impressive ! also faria and fili are good underdogs imo, the odds on that cards speak by itself...huge upset or decisive win's !