Yeah I'm all over that Suarez line. Hammering it TBH

Olympic Wrestler.. + just a bad ***** overall.

suarez is rly good, doubt grasso has any chance at all really.

how about luque vs laprise ...seems like a bloated odds for the hometown guy, i don't really know him but i took a look at his record nothing stand out! I'm high on Laprise , luque must deliver a lifetime performance here

I got in early on Suarez at -190. The -650 or -700 line is ridiculous now.

Luque is pretty good. You can get to him if you can keep a heavy pace on him, but I don’t think laprise is much of a pressure fighter. Luque prob takes it easy enough, hits really hard. Luque is definitely the clear favorite.

Can hedge 0.15u on Alexa now for a freeroll. Wonderful feeling

i whatch some of his fight, yes pretty impressive....,scary KO power ,all you said is like objectively true imo !
but i think laprise MMA foundation is made to take out this kind of opponent...If he can pass the first round without too much damage, he might be able to turn this into a dog fight..
well will see I'm taking a chance on that 1 , i don't recommend it lol

pazares over cummings is another one may take a chance...

Took Maia at 6.9 on Matchbook.
Might be a terrible matchup for him but still pretty insane that somone that was fighting for the title 2 fights ago is 6.9 underdog.

Also got small a freeroll on Suarez backing at 1.24 and laying off my bet at 1.24.

Quite like Briones as a 3.75 dog but not pulled the trigger yet.

i think this is the worst card ive seen in a very long time. everything seems about right to me. ive poured through everything except pantoja/moreno. the value was on the early lines in the mains i guess. briones seems interesting i guess. too old fighters, sweet. but briones has only lost to cody, douglas d'silva andrade, and rani yahya. thats pretty much a murderers row for a midlevel guy. how the **** do they give him rani yaya on a 2 fight losing streak?

maia is out-ponzinibbio to the rescue

http://qc.ufc.com/

bs , bug on the ufc site maia still in

Added Cannonier at 3.1.

Reyes is untested against higher level opposition.
Cannonier has fought to top level guys like Glover and I think Blacho is top ten. Although he has lost these fights, he has shown he isn't a world away from them.

On a card where nothing stands out that much as huge value, I think 3.1 is pretty good here.

UFN 129 Risk $3745.45

Demian Maia wins inside distance (+686) $50.00 for $343.00
Demian Maia/Kamaru Usman Over 2½ (-125) $125.00 for $100.00
Demian Maia/Kamaru Usman goes 5 round distance (+170) $100.00 for $170.00

Dominick Reyes (-170) vs Jared Cannonier $170.00 for $100.00
Dominick Reyes wins by submission (+440) $25.00 for $110.00
Dominick Reyes wins in round 2 (+451) $15.00 for $67.65
Dominick Reyes wins by submission in round 2 (+1400) ~$16.60 for ~$232.40
Jared Cannonier wins by KO/TKO/DQ (+708) $30.00 for $212.40
Jared Cannonier wins in round 3 (+1814) $10.00 for $181.40
Dominick Reyes/Jared Cannonier Under 2½ (+100) $100.00 for $100.00

Tatiana Suarez (-190) vs Alexa Grasso $475.00 for $250.00

Diego Rivas (-155) vs Guido Cannetti $310.00 for $200.00
Diego Rivas wins in round 2 (+625) $15.00 for $93.75
Diego Rivas/Guido Cannetti Under 2½ (+105) $100.00 for $105.00

Andrea Lee/Veronica Macedo starts round 3 (-173) $129.75 for $75.00
Andrea Lee wins by TKO/KO (+322) $35.00 for $112.70
Andrea Lee wins in round 3 (+1125) $15.00 for $168.75
Andrea Lee wins by 3 round decision (+176) $75.00 for $132.00

Vicente Luque (-195) vs Chad Laprise $195.00 for $100.0
Vicente Luque wins by TKO/KO (+250) $40.00 for $100.00

Zak Cummings (-137) vs Michel Prazeres $274.00 for $200.00
Zak Cummings (-141) vs Michel Prazeres $282.00 for $200.00

Alexandre Pantoja/Brandon Moreno Under 2½ (+205) $50.00 for $102.50

Poliana Botelho (-145) vs Syuri Kondo $290.00 for $200.00
Poliana Botelho wins by TKO/KO (+340) $35.00 for $119.00
Poliana Botleho wins in round 3 (+1250) $10.00 for $125.00

Gabriel Benitez -3½ points (+110) vs Humberto Bandenay $100.00 for $110.00
Gabriel Benitez wins by TKO/KO (+506) $20.00 for $101.20
Gabriel Benitez wins by KO/TKO/DQ in round 2 (+1400) ~$16.60 for ~$232.40

Brandon Davis (+190) vs Enrique Barzola $100.00 for $190.00
Brandon Davis (+180) vs Enrique Barzola $100.00 for $180.00

Frankie Saenz/Henry Briones goes 3 round distance (-290) $87.00 for $30.00

Felipe Silva wins by TKO/KO (-105) $52.50 for $50.00
Felipe Silva/Claudio Puelles Under 1½ (+105) $75.00 for $78.75

Fights to go distance under 7½ (-193) $77.20 for $40.00
Fights to go distance under 6½ (+130) $40.00 for $52.00
Fights to go distance under 5½ (+325) $25.00 for $81.25
Fights to go distance under 4½ (+837) $15.00 for $125.55
Fights to go distance under 3½ (+2550) $10.00 for $255.00
Fights to go distance under 2½ (+9966) $5.00 for $498.30

Dominick Reyes wins POTN bonus (+224) ~$8.30 for ~$18.59
Vicente Luque wins POTN bonus (+284) ~$8.30 for ~$23.57
Gabriel Benitez wins POTN bonus (+354) ~$8.30 for ~$29.38
Felipe Silva wins POTN bonus (+330) ~$8.30 for ~$27.39

Diego Rivas/Guido Cannetti wins FOTN bonus (+340) ~$16.60 for ~$56.44

Moreno +101
Bandenay +163
Cummings -175
Maia by sub or dec + Usman by tko or dec or dq effectively at about -600

That's it for me so far.

Catching up on the Puelles/Silva fight as they're showing it as filler.

Seems absurd that Claudio Puelles won via a flukey kneebar as Felipe Silva got sloppy and was effectively caught napping in ten careless seconds or less but hey, stuff like this happens.

I'm playing with a theory... Cannetti +157, Cannonier +185.

Also have Grasso ~+500 on average and Maia at +460. I don't really believe that such an inexperienced fighter can be a huge favorite, and this is a huge favorite, against anyone with a pulse. Even considering her background and the matchup. I kinda get why it got there though... Main event bet is mostly a sweat.

Thats... about exactly what a -500 favorite should look like. Ill eat crow on this one.

moreno cost me , laprise didnt past the first...prazeres was great in my multiple but rivas couldnt pull this off in the last 2 round for that bet !!
if maia make a miraculous sub in the seconds im all good otherwise !! bad card to bet most fight was a flip

i just had pantoja and luque yesterday.

had no rooting interest but i was screaming at my tv during the rivas fight. how bad can his fight iq be???

So I took the time to formally check my assumption that relatively inexperienced fighters are overestimated when they are listed as big favorites. I chose -300 or bigger favorites and 10 or less fights. The results aren't sensitive to these choices. Numerically I had 132 fights where the favorites were expected to win ~78% of the time and won ~83% of the time. This difference isn't statistically significant, although all tests "lean" towards these favorites being underpriced rather than overpriced.

Why not check this BEFORE betting, you say? I.. um, uh...

ha i almost hit my parlay, forgot about it after the first leg missed.

That's pretty interesting. I know that in football (soccer) short priced favourites are often undervalued.

rivas make consertivative desicion , even if is't stupid ...at some point 'cage control ' would favor him on a desicion ,homwtown guy ect ' but didnt want too get too close,lack of confidence in his hands (probably justify lol ) then in the 3rd his arm was done i mean ive seen way worst in term of fight iq ! he fkn choke imo + not so good hands!! i was screaming too ..do it gogo, move foward...but i should cashout in the end of the first round ' that was stupid too' lol

Thoughts on WB/Till? Feel like Wonderboy gets the decision on him > 62% of the time.

170 probably the most interesting division right now. Cov/RDA, Till/WB and then you got Usman waiting in the wings so there is a lot of good potential fights coming up in that division.

Managed to eke out a minuscule profit despite losing big on both a lethargic Zak Cummings and over matched Diego Rivas. Gabriel Benitez, Poliana Botelho, Vicente Luque and Dominick Reyes getting those KOs were my big winners and the main event going the distance like the two most recent Demian Maia bouts saved the card for me.

For next week's Liverpool card I got in early on the Wonderboy line weeks ago at -135 to win 2 units.