What are you guys thinking on Fili versus Bermudez? I think there's value in Fili, curious if you guys have any strong opinions one way or the other.

what makes you think that? my initial inclination was bermudez but i havent done any study on this fight yet. im pretty sure fili is going to get taken down ad nauseum in this fight. i honestly dont think fili has faced a wrestler in the ufc yet.

That was my initial thinking as well, but after watching some of his fights I think Fili is going to be a very difficult guy to control on the ground. He has very good hips and is a good athlete, plus even though he's never fought a wrestler in the UFC before he trains at TAM so is (presumably) constantly wrestling with guys like Faber, Guida, and Chad Mendes. If there's one thing that camp will teach you, it's wrestling. He also flashed very good offensive wrestling in his last fight against Artem Lobov, which is what he used to control the fight in Round 3 to squeeze out the win. I think he's going to be a very difficult guy to hold down and GnP.

Plus, I wasn't as impressed with Bermudez's wrestling as I initially expected to be given his credentials after watching his fights. He's good, sure, but there's a big difference between his wrestling ability and a guy like Frankie Edgar's, for example.

So, to summarize, if Bermudez is able to take Fili down and control him on the ground, sure, he wins, and that could definitely happen. But if he's unable to do that, I like Fili standing given his reach. Bermudez is more of a one shot knockout guy as opposed to a Calvin Kattar type who pressures and throws a lot of accurate combinations, which is what gave Fili trouble. Plus Bermudez is getting a little chinny I think, that punch that Chang Sung Jung KO'd him with wouldn't have stopped him in his younger days IMO.

I don't think the line is wildly mispriced, but I think it's more of a 50/50 fight so like Fili as an +135 underdog.

ehhh i dunno it was a clean uppercut on the jaw that he leaned into. seemed like it would put a lot of people out. like i said i haven't done any research, i've just never loved fili's game that much. i will say i think bektic and gillespie are free this week even at their prices. i usually dont like to bet this big of favorites but prob can't resist this week. i think gillespie will lose at some point to someone he's favored against because of how little he cares about defense, but he should absolutely grind up and spit out rinaldi. roi can't be that great tho given price.

Agree on Fili, I don’t love his game either I just think this is a relatively good matchup for his style assuming he can keep the fight standing.

Also agree on Gillespie, I don’t like his standup because he blocks a lot of punches with his face but his wrestling and top control game are both extremely good, plus he has great strength and conditioning and is a savage from a mental toughness standpoint. Don’t think his opponent is physically strong enough to stop Gillespie from imposing his will.

I still think Brunson is one of the better bets I’ve seen in a while, but maybe I’m just too down on Jacare. We’ll see what happens.

This is an underdog card for me. Have Erik Koch at +140, Fili at +135, and a big bet on Brunson at an average price of +130.

Like Fili and Brunson for reasons previously discussed, think that Bobby Green is an athlete who is so/so from a technique standpoint and has very poor fight IQ. Think that Koch has good striking, very good BJJ, and will fight an intelligent fight with Duke Roofus in his corner. Main risk here is Koch has poor striking defense and tends to get tagged cleanly in his fights, but either way I like him as an underdog against Green and think there's value there.

I have bet Brunson already at 2.37 and like the other two bets.
Market seems to agree that Brunson was the value side as its 2.02 on Pinny now.

Probably just leave it at Brunson for now.

Surprised Rose is an underdog against JJ thought she would around evens. Also like Emmett as a dog to Stephens.

Anyone betting Bellator tonight?

does anyone use ******? how can they have a line like -275 on gillespie that isn't moving? is it just impossible to get real money down there?

use what?

dsi

the ufc odds they have seem really good. but ive literally never heard of them. id love to know if they legit or not. aka can you get money on and off lol

yeah they have a prelim guy at +120 when hes -205 on pinny. that just seems too ridiculous to be legit. the lines for that fight are +120 and +187 hmmmmm

what are u guys betting on bellator tonight?

Thoughts on Stipe/DC line?

Stipe -150?

would say more like Stipe -300

Man all that money coming in Brunson its crazy, its gonna be a lot of ppl sad tomorrow

In regards to Stipe vs DC, I feel like its gonna be DC who wins this, does Stipe hit harder than Rumble? Is he a better wrestler than DC? Answer to both is probably not, I know Stipe is gonna be a favourite and is probably the best heavyweight ever but its just a bad match up for stipe i think, what do y'all think?

maybe i'm just a huge Dc fanboy but I can't see him losing this one! although i was wrong about the jones fights! Can you imagine if Jon kept his **** together and was fighting Stipe, Jon would be a heavy favourite right?

Sort of tempted by Brunson and Dober but will wait and see if I wake up in time to watch the card just leaving it for now, gl all.

Took some Brunson at the pickem price, should have got on the dog odds early but I think he matches up well. He's mistake prone, but should beat Jacare

Sort of like Dober too but the steams moving the other way so just going to leave it.

Just going a half max bet on Brunson that should do me for today. GL all!

Ok putting my money where my mouth is

4u Ronaldo Souza 2.0
1u Dennis Bermudez 1.6

gl all!

Tons of Brunson steam, -140/+125 fav now. I got on when it was a pickem but should have taken the opener. Evidently I should have got on Dober too but oh well

Didn't get a chance to watch the rest of the card but will catch the main event. Don't make any mistakes please Brunson. He should wreck Jacare if he just uses his wrestling defensively to keep it standing and can avoid mistakes.

Yuck, Brunson looked so gunshy there. Embarrassing to lose by head kick to a grappler. Such a gross start to the year at least I didn't quite have a max bet on. I lose just under a full bet for the card, 3 losing cards in a row now after a great run in late 2017.

Went 1-2, -5.5 units. Didn't get a chance to watch the Brunson or Fili fights, but that Brunson KO hurts, obviously. Koch was a disappointment, I think he got cracked at the end of the first round and hurt and then Green's pressure was really bothering him. Disappointing night all around.

Finally added some more to Jacare @ +120 and Jacare Sub Round 1, ended up +4.25u for the card

I Though Bermudez won that fight but was rlly close 60/40 going to the judges imo, Fili was a tuff customer tho.

Its been a good start of the year hope to keep it going looking to fire some on Valentina for the next card and maybe some Anders if the line is good