Quote:
Originally Posted by Malachii
You’re thinking in terms of lazy narratives instead of watching tape, IMHO. I don’t agree that Choi’s overall MMA game is better than Stephens, I don’t think he has better cardio or is mentally tougher, and I don’t think you need to knock someone out in a fight in order for a power advangage to give a fighter a material edge. I also strongly disagree that Stephens outpointing Choi is highly unlikely, I think there’s a very good chance Stephens wins by decision.
I'm not sure what tape watching has to do with a lot of this. I can certainly be wrong, but it isn't because I haven't watched every available fight for both guys (albeit many of Stephens fights, years ago).
I'd question what "tape" could teach someone about Choi's cardio. The Swanson fight was no ordinary fight. I do know I've no evidence of Stephens using his cardio to beat someone, especially at 145.
Stephens "outpointing" folks is wildly uncommon. Renan Barao, yes. Not Bermudez. Moicano, no. Edgar, no. Oliveira, no. Swanson and Holloway, of course no. He just isn't a volume striker. He doesn't have much of a TD game.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Malachii
I think Choi has excellent punching technique and is accurate, but that doesn’t mean that he’s better overall on his feet than Stephens is, especially with the nasty leg kicks Stephens showed in his last fight. Stephens is just a really good, well rounded fighter and even though he may not win, the value was definitely on him when he opened at plus 160 imo.
I might caution that you are basing everything on Stephens last outing. He definitely carved Melendez up with leg kicks. So does everyone who faces Melendez. Landing leg kicks on Melendez... that is pretty normal stuff.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Malachii
Stephens is just a really good, well rounded fighter and even though he may not win, the value was definitely on him when he opened at plus 160 imo.
I'd probably challenge this one. Jeremy has no take down game at all. His combination striking is rather ordinary. His speed and accuracy are adequate, but fall far short against elite guys in that area (Holloway & Cub). Jeremy's special characteristics are power at all eight points, brute strength, granite chin, and now size for the division.
Probably majoring in too many minors. I believe that in this fight everything about Stephens is a known quantity. What he is is what he has been for the last five years, only now at 145. Choi is the partial unknown. What we do know has often times been very spectacular.
Last thought. Stephens looked tremendous beating on the carcass that is Melendez (who doesn't?). Choi coming off of a brutal loss. Oddsmakers, the contrarian line. I know that siding with Choi is siding with the book.
Not flaming man. The idea is to get on the right side. Learn the things you might have missed. Always useful to know what the other side thinks even if you don't agree, right?