I tend to agree that Ngannou will steam; it's just so rare for a champ to open as a dog to a contender. Edgar vs Maynard was close to a pickem both times, Evans was a dog to Machida who looked invincible at the time, Shogun was a dog to Jones and i'm struggling to think of any other examples. Mir was a dog to Brock I think as well.

If Stipe is +180 or something stupid like that i'll take the champ to retain, but if Ngannou opens as a dog i'll get on board for and new. Hopefully we get the fight made for UFC 220.

I've watched some more tape on both and I kind of like Cub Swanson versus Brian Ortega. Ortega is good and his BJJ is nasty, but he got lucky to win against Renato Moicano (was losing by decision and then Moicano made a huge unforced error to go for a takedown and Ortega caught him) and otherwise doesn't have any super impressive wins, although Guida is solid.

Meanwhile, Cub Swanson has lost exactly two fights since 2012: Max Holloway and Frankie Edgar. He's also beaten some absolute studs like Poirier, Jeremy Stephens, and Doo Ho Choi. Yes, he's getting a little long in the tooth and Ortega is in his prime, but I think at -105 a lot of that has already been priced in. Not a lock by any means, but I think Swanson is probably like 55 - 60% to win here.

Some from recent memory I can think of are Eddie vs Conor, Nunes vs Rousey and Woodley vs Thompson 2. DC opened as a small fav vs Rumble and closed as a dog. It happens a bit.

I think Stipe Miocic is great, but I don't think the general perception is that, so I see Ngannou being the favourite open and close. Probably rightly so since he is a beast. It's almost like he is a weight class above.

I agree Malachii and i'm lower on Ortega (despite his nasty streak of r3 finishes) than pretty much any unbeaten contender with his list of wins, in my opinion he is VERY lucky to be unbeaten

Cub is pretty motivated as this is his last chance for a title run and with Edgar injured and Aldo out of the title picture, this is basically the #1 contender fight if Holloway plans to stay active. That said Edgar is back in 12 weeks but even then, if Cub fights now he can be ready to step in if Edgar can't fight and re-injures himself or just wait for the winner of Holloway vs Edgar and emerge as the #1 contender if it's Holloway at least (and Holloway's def a fav vs Edgar at this point even though i'm a huge Edgar fan he's getting up there in age and Holloway's still early in his prime). Assuming Holloway fights Edgar at say UFC 222 in March, if Cub wins this fight he could easily just sit out until June/July and fight Holloway on one of the international fight week cards in Vegas, it'd make an excellent co-main event to something like Conor vs Ferguson or a GSP fight or a HW title bout or whatever for the main July card.

Ortega could easily be 0-4 in his last 4 instead of 4-0, from memory he was down two rounds to Brandao and Moicano, 1-1 with Guida and 1-1 with Tavares. So in the first 2 rounds of his last 4 fights, he is arguably 2-6 in rounds won to lost. Granted he finished all 4 fights and well done to him but Cub is harder to finish than any of the guys he has fought.

While Ortega could submit him he's not going to knock him out and has no easy path to a takedown; his offensive wrestling isn't on Frankie Edgar's level and that's the only guy to dominate Cub through grappling from memory.

I'll definitely be playing Swanson assuming he looks fine at weigh ins, all the steam's on Ortega so far so i'm holding off. Maybe i'll hedge with Ortega wins by submission in round 2/3 if the price is good but pretty confident Cub is at least a -125 fav here

Exactly what I was thinking as well Swoop. We can probably get Ortega at +1500xxx Round 3. I strongly believe that Cub will be winning the fight early and thus Brian needing a finish later in the fight. With that being said it'll be interesting to see when the props come out. I can't see how Brian decisions him unless he gets Cub down and GNPs for 2/3 rounds but highly unlikely.

I tend to agree - not sure if the submission or r3 prop is better, probably r3 it would be tough for Ortega to finish Cub quickly, I mean he can take a hell of a shot from a precision puncher like Choi without being knocked out, and Ortega isn't exactly going to be shooting NCAA Div 1 double legs at the start of r1.

I've probably faded Swanson more than i've bet on him in his UFC tenure, but this feels like a clear bet Swanson spot even though it goes against the golden rule of always take the prospect over the ageing vet. He just turned back a better prospect in Choi, granted that's a totally different stylistic matchup.

Overeem getting koed was ridic. Ya he has a shot on stipe

Ortega now the fav pretty big steam from opening at 2.35.

What do people think about Moraes vs Sterling matchup?

Was hoping to get Moraes around evens but the odds seem about right as they are.

Only bet I really like at the moment is Swanson by KO at 8.00. Given its five rounds and Ortega always seems to get tagged in every fight.

I think Swanson is going to decision the hell out of Ortega but a TKO wouldn't surprise me either. I actually forgot it was a 5 round fight but I know Cub can go 5 rounds and while Ortega's had a string of good third rounds he's going to struggle to get Swanson down in my opinion and he will need to either take him down regularly or submit him to win. Swanson's gone 5 rounds multiple times and his cardio's fine, Ortega is more of a question mark

The more I think about it the more likely I am to just play Swanson straight up fading the steam and maybe hedge with some Ortega wins by sub in the later rounds if the price is good or just leave it on Swanson if not

http://mmajunkie.com/2017/12/chael-s...ds-a-j-agazarm

Jake Shields is such a tool it's ridiculous, he's impossible to like between his awful and boring fighting style and failed drug test and personality. I might go watch Jake Ellenberger KO him again.

Moraes/Sterling price seems about right to me.

I think if Ortega gets him down he probably submits him. But I don’t think he gets him down.

Not able to calculate or feel the result here but understand there are dynamics in play outside the scope of my knowledge, this is an unusal fight.


Single - Cris Cyborg v Holly Holm
No - Fight to go the Distance?
Odds: 8/15
1 lines at £300.00 per line
Total Stake for this bet: £300.00
Potential Return:£460.00


Very difficult fight for either fighter to go the distance, Holly is not going to do to Cyborg (32yearrs old, "but Aldo style?"... aka really 42 but balla in rd 1rd, rd2, early 3rd?)

Holly standing and banging vs Germaine de Randamie for 5 full is different in same way Gina Carano found out, and Gina was handy.

Cris Cyborg is a distance reducer, a smasher, she is either going to get in close and remove the oxygen from Holly's lungs or she is going to be rejected by a highly talented mover and striker.


To see perfect execution on the wire at the very highest level is rare, leaving to the side this bet, you bet against such performances, having 5 full rounds for either fighter to implement their game plain means to me, one of them is going to do it.

If either fighter "races ahead" of the other fighter, the fight is over.

This is not a cub swanson vs ortega fight in which both can stand and bang (ortega under rated?) for 3 full (see cub swanson vs dooho choi for his ability to stand / move bang and keep trucking).

I like to bet against the full 25minutes at the highest level with the strongest form we have seen vs the most poetic female form we have seen.

If Cris Cyborg v Holly Holm goes the full five rounds, stop and think about it, this would have to be one of the greatest fights male or female of all time.


Holly has a lot to get through in the first 3 full rounds, 4th and 5th are hers but I dont see that.


Locking in a small win to end the year, cant see anything else????


ref:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/UFC_219


Promotion Ultimate Fighting Championship
Date December 30, 2017
Venue T-Mobile Arena
City Las Vegas, Nevada

Didn't Lawler open as a dog for a few defenses?

It's rare but not of the challenger is coming in red hot and the champ really isn't considered that much better than the rest of the division.

Like you said Machida, Bones. Wonderboy was like -175 vs Woodley coming off his dominant wins over Rory and Hendricks.


DC/Volkan on the card as well. Can't remember last time LHW title didn't close the show.

Next few cards shaping up nicely; 219 isn't super top heavy as I don't really care about Cyborg but its her first interesting fight in ages and I can't wait for Khabib vs Barboza, Rivera vs Lineker and Condit vs Magny. Not spectacular on paper for a PPV but should be some exciting fights

220 looks good with both HW and LHW title fights and 221 off to a nice start with GSP vacating the belt and Whittaker vs Rockhold for the real belt after Whittaker got upgraded. Time for all of the MW killers to fight each other. I really like Whittaker in that fight; Rockhold has great kicks but Whittaker has a chin and the best TDD in the division and Rockhold is chinny if Whittaker can land on him. I don't think Rockhold can take Whittaker down; if he can obv he'll win by submission or GnP but if he can't then Whittaker's going to TKO him standing in the first few rounds. Definitely liking Whittaker at -1xx in Perth if the line opens with him as only a small fav now that he's healed up from the injury.

Just hoping we get a real main card for 221 and the 'random aussie vs random can' is contained to the undercard

Cyborg inside the distance all day

She did show some cardio issues that Holm may be able to exploit if she can survive, but Cyborg is going to walk through Holm's punches and hulk smash her in the first round, will be interesting to see how Holm reacts to being hit in a way she's never been hit before.

Invicta FC 26 Risk $717.00

Jennifer Maia (+145) vs Agnieszka Niedzwiedz $100.00 for $145.00
Jennifer Maia (+115) vs Agnieszka Niedzwiedz $100.00 for $115.00
Kaline Medeiros (+400) vs Mackenzie Dern $50.00 for $200.00
Janaisa Morandin (-167) vs Kinberly Novaes $167.00 for $100.00
Vanessa Porto (-200) vs Milana Dudieva $150.00 for $75.00
Amy Montenegro (+225) vs Virna Jandiroba $50.00 for $112.50
Amber Brown (+135) vs Tessa Simpson $100.00 for $135.00

Glory 49 & Redemption Risk $2090.00

Rico Verhoeven/Jamal Ben Saddik Over 1½ (-160) $160.00 for $100.00
Rico Verhoeven/Jamal Ben Saddik Over 1½ (-190) $190.00 for $100.00

Michael Duut/Danyo Ilunga Under 2½ (+125) $100.00 for $125.00

Anderson Silva (-275) vs Brian Douwes $275.00 for $100.00
Anderson Silva/Brian Douwes Under 2½ (+100) $100.00 for $100.00

Zakaria Zouggary (-105) vs Petchpanomrung Kiatmookao $105.00 for $100.00

Yousri Belgaroui (-180) vs Alex Pereira $360.00 for $200.00
Yousri Belgaroui/Alex Pereira Under 4½ (+100) $100.00 for $100.00

Alim Nabiev (+335) vs Nieky Holzken $100.00 for $335.00
Alim Nabiev (+335) vs Nieky Holzken $100.00 for $335.00
Alim Nabiev/Nieky Holzken Over 2½ (-160) $160.00 for $100.00
Alim Nabiev/Nieky Holzken Over 2½ (-190) $190.00 for $100.00

D'Angelo Marshall/Ismael Londt Over 1½ (-150) $150.00 for $100.00

This is the rare card where i'm making just one bet, and it's straight up and on the main card

One standard max bet for me on Swanson at an average of -107

Let's do it Cub, keep it standing, end Ortega's undefeated streak and earn yourself a title shot.

As previously mentioned I think this comes down to whether Ortega can take Swanson down and submit him. Ortega is a slick grappler but isn't an NCAA level wrestler, Cub's TDD is decent and his chin is solid to handle the puncher's chance Ortega has on the feet. On the feet, Cub has proven himself against much higher level strikers like Choi that he can win a war of attrition and volume and he generally only loses to elite fighters. Since 2009 he's lost to Holloway (current champ), Edgar (former champ and current #1 contender), Aldo (division GOAT) and then Lamas and Mendes who were both top 5 contenders at the time. He has a ton of wins over guys who average out to about Ortega's perceived level in that time. Yeah he's 34, but he hasn't shown any signs of decline yet. Hopefully he has a win left in him and I think he does against Ortega.

Got one small bet on Moraes so far at odds of 1.9.
Backed Sterling at 2.5 and then backed Moraes as his odds rose.

Also got a bet on Swanson at 1.97. Swanson by TKO at 7.5

Not the best card from a betting stand point but looking forward to watching.

Managed to get a tiny bet in on Sakara at home in Italy:

Bellator 190 Risk $45.00

Alessio Sakara (+254) vs Rafael Carvalho ~$45.00 for ~$114.30

Nice one JimGunn on Alim vs Nieky, I followed and also bet Alim to win great bet!

Also pretty exciting news that Badr Hari is back and will fight in a few months, I guess against the winner of Verhoeven vs Ben Saddik.

C.Swanson vs B.Ortega
Fight Result (2 way):*
Ortega, Brian To Win
Stake: 65.00
Potential returns: 127.40



I think Ortega is very crafty and he hides a few gears he has, he is observant and has just gone through Thiago Tavares, Diego Brandão, Clay Guida and Renato Moicano ,impressive backed with a faultless record.

Ortega is good with his hands and able to block shots off his arms and moves very well, the spacing, Swanson is a pedal to the metal guy but I think this fight needs more than that given its also shipping into the 4th and 5th you prefer to be the younger (stronger?) man.

Ortega is no Doo Ho Choi, he is much more lethal than Doo. Cub got to look good there..

If it goes to the ground, both are black belt BJJ but Swanson has lost previously in this area his game and he is in with a strong dude that knows all this area inside out and importantly knows its his path to victory because on the feet this is going to be a stale mate for a while.

This is a really good fight, I'm not going crazy on Ortega over Club but I like Ortega, I think he is slightly under rated.

UFN 123 Risk $1343.50

Cub Swanson (-105) vs Brian Ortega $315.00 for $300.00
Cub Swanson wins by 5 round decision (+195) $55.00 for $107.25
Brian Ortega wins in round 3 (+1100) $20.00 for 220.00
Brian Ortega wins in round 4 (+160) $15.00 for 240.00
Brian Ortega wins in round 5 (+2500) $10.00 for $250.00

Gabriel Benitez/Jason Knight fight does not go distance (-110) $110.00 for $100.00

Marlon Moraes (-135) vs Aljamain Sterling $135.00 for $100.00

Scott Holtzman (-120) vs Darrell Horcher $240.00 for $200.00
Scott Holtzman wins by TKO/KO (+535) $20.00 for $107.00

Eryk Anders/Markus Perez Over 2½ (+147) $30.00 for $44.10

Benito Lopez/Albert Morales Over 2½ (-190) $57.00 for $30.0

Alexis Davis (+130) vs Liz Carmouche $100.00 for $130.00

Andre Soukhamthath wins by TKO/KO (+785) vs Luke Sanders $30.00 for $235.50

Alex Perez wins inside distance (+120) vs Carls John de Tomas $50.00 for $60.00

Merab Dvalishvili wins by TKO/KO (+410) vs Frankie Saenz $25.00 for $102.50

Iuri Alcantara/Alejandro Perez Under 2½ (-105) $31.50 for $30.00

Chris Gruetzemacher (+365) vs Davi Ramos $50.00 for $182.50

Trevin Giles/Antonio Braga Neto Under 2½ (+100) $40.00 for $40.00
Trevin Giles wins in round 3 (+1050) $10.00 for $105.00

I'm on Swanson, I think he'll be too much for the young Ortega.

I think Swanson decisions him a lot, but I got some props he finishes him in 3-5. I also got some props that Ortega finishes Cub, he does have a lot of final round subs, so you have to play that prop!