Thought Mousasi did enough to win 2 rounds.

Going to try and back Cerrone at 1.73 if I can get it anywhere. (No access to Pinnacle)
Think the line has gone too far towards Till now. Also just fancy a sweat as I will be watching the event .

UFC riding Conor anyway they can, on the pre-fight popup where they have like "2 fight winstreak", they included "Part of SGB, Conor McGregor teammate"... Never seen they do that for anyone else.

How did Lobov just survive that?

Lobov does has a sturdy chin on him.

Remember to fade Alvey anytime he takes a fight on short notice considering his build and conditioning.

ya he looked real bad today

I like till inside the distance by KO, he is a bit special and spent 3 years in brazil which impresses me. That said Id like to book a win here, so using a IT.

I just cant see the level of violence in the cage plus with tills good foot work for moving in and out leading to a judges score card, if its in the 3rd and the 4th these two are going to be knocking chunk's out of each other that no human can take.

I am looking forward to watching this fight tomorrow morning after gym.

Managed to get Cerrone at 1.76. Heavy backing for Til on Betfair.

til hasnt ever really been threatened, super confident, he has a good shot at winning but who knows its cowboy.

Mike Perry vs. Darren Till should be interesting if Perry can get past Santiago Ponzinibbio...and they've got Mike Perry on the mic post-Cerrone/Till fight with him wanting to face Darren Till in England.

goddamn had a tiny bet for 1st round til. haha XD with these u always wish u bet more but ill take it

Till looked ****ing massive in there for a welterweight.

itd was free money.

Who should Till fight next?

Didn't catch the card today, i'll make sure to watch Till/Cerrone but otherwise seems missable. I'd have probably taken KK by Decision and Cerrone so would have gone 1-1 if i'd bet it.

2 week wait until arguably the best card of the year hopefully we get more lines soon

just watched it.

till is impressive as all kinds of bananas, he is hugely strong, his body is very impressive and his movement is absolutely brilliant with the kind of composure that allows him to throw a lovely variance of left hand,

cowboy got him down and he just effortlessly snapped back up,

its going to take a top 3 fighter to trouble him,

his vision, you can see it in his face, he is a hunter killer in the cage.

his size is huge, fully filled out shoulders, legs at gsp level

I want to see the odds for this kid In his next fight,

I saw an interview where Till said he actually likes to be hit a little bit (get his juices going).

guy is a monster,

Cerrone never stood a chance, his leg kicks did nothing, his strong mid section body shot ignored.


Till could become no1.... I can see it in his face, its like looking into a focal lens of highly developed boxer at sugar ray Leonard / Mayweather, (like that innocent hells kitchen coming to get you)

Till has seen so much... it allows him to do what he does in there,

who ever gets put in front of him next is going to get the same treatment.

I liked in the last moments of the fight when till rocked cowboy, and cowboy span out and away a little, and till stopped paused and progressed, that was indicative of a hugely mature fighter.

Edit: it looks like till with his head can take a shot as well, tough dude....brick sht house, impressive!

Till vs loser of Masvidal/Wonderboy maybe? Or RDA/Lawler loser. Would be a decent step up in competition but obviously the winners of those two fights are the two next in line for the title shot (along with Conor if he wants it and GSP if he puts in a decent performance vs Bisping)

If they wanted to give him the big step up they could give him the winner of whichever of those 2 fights isn't fighting for the title next assuming the other one is and the winner of that would def be #1 contender

Whops. Missed the chance to bet this card as I didn't realize it was on early. Was in the middle of reinstalling windows when I find out Till and Cerrone was making the walk xd

Totally forgot we have a card next weekend and it's good for a random fight night, Brunson vs Machida, Maia vs Covington and another 5 or so decent prelims. Hoping for Machida and Maia to turn back the clock one more time obviously. Both fights are interesting stylistic matchups. If I can get Machida and Maia at + odds i'll consider it although I think Covington should be able to keep it standing, but that said Maia could get his neck or back standing quite easily. Hope Machida still has it he's getting up there in age but Brunson is a rush in striker which is the perfect style for him to beat.

KSW 40 Risk $974.00

Mateusz Gamrot (-143) vs Norman Parke ~$168.00 for ~$117.48
Mateusz Gamrot (-155) vs Norman Parke $155.00 for $100.00

Michal Materla (-385) vs Paulo Thiago ~$456.00 for ~$118.44

David Zawada (-195) vs Maciej Jewtuszko $195.00 for $100.00

A push and two wins!? I'd happily take that.

http://www.sherdog.com/events/KSW-40-Dublin-62471

The report reads fairly freakish if 'standard fare' for a event from a smaller promotion.

http://www.sherdog.com/news/news/Pud...-KSW-40-127999

How did the model run?

^ Didn't run the estimates. Tbh I've been kinda busy focusing on my Dota 2 betting... running insanely hot comparatively (~25% ROI). A lot more/better data = a lot better predictions. As fun as betting on MMA is, it turns out winning consistently is fun too :P

DOTA 2 betting sounds interesting. What are the limits there? I might have to check that out, I was obsessed with the original DOTA back in college, lol.

At first glance I like Brunson and Maia and have bet them both. Then again, I haven't had the best results fading Covington and Machida is quite smart and crafty, so not super confident in either wager. We'll see what happens.

Quite surprised to get Maia as an underdog, did bet him at 2.3
Also liking Santos as small underdog, and Lineker vs Vera at over 1.5
for the Main event I think ill go with the under 2.5

Actually really fun card, totally flying under the radar, looking forward to it.

Got on Maia at +130 for a bunch since he's steaming in hard and I like that side as I think that fight is a pickem and would take either guy as a dog. In to +110 on Pinny now, so I figured i'd take it now as I think that fight's a flip - if Covington uses his wrestling defensively to outstrike Maia he should win, but if there are any significant grapping exchanges Maia's going to find a way to his back or neck.

Tempted by Machida (but that's mostly because i'm a Machida fanboy and stylistically this is a great MU for him, layoff + age is a big concern) and Trinaldo (Miller getting up there in age + fight is in Brazil in event it goes to a 29-28 type decision which is fairly likely) but haven't fired either yet. I expect to be on Machida and Trinaldo though. I think Trinaldo beats Miller through being younger and more active although his cardio's always a concern but I think he should usually win the first two rounds at least.

I sort of like Lineker to finish Vera too it's a huge step up for a guy who's only a year away from losing to Davey Grant. Might take Lineker ITD if it's at about even money or better.

I sort of like the under on Hermansson/Santos but it's 1.5 rounds, so might pass would have taken u2.5 though. Tempted by Santos as a dog even though Hermansson seems legit.

Hoping Niko Price is bettable when that fight opens

I think i'll take Carlos Junior too if he's only a small fav when lines come out