Perfect card a push and four wins. Nice run lately after a bad start to the year think I've won something like 4 of the last 5 cards

Another bad one for me. -2.5ish units.

Cant help but cry at the start of watching 216, so beautiful of ufc....

This life is not the only one, we go back to love after learning here is the only thing I can muster.

VEGAS STRONG!

Edit: what's the story with derrick lewis?

Couldn't get out of bed, stiff back apparently.

ok thanks Swiiftx, enjoy the rest of your Sunday there mate.

this till vs cowboy fight is going to be some thing special, till is impressive but could get caught out by lack of experience vs the old guard, sneaky head kick and all the tricks, till will know to warm it up real quick in the 1st. 1st round till by KO maybe a nice play,

I watched quite a few of Green's fights because I thought he had the potential to be a good bet due to his wrestling background and superior strength and athleticism, but the guy has the fight IQ of a peanut.

It's really too bad too, because the guy has all of the talent in the world.

Injured back for Lewis apparently

Vannata and Green are both beautifully flawed fighters with so much talent but leaks that they need to plug before theyre legit top 15. Not sure which camp either is with and too lazy to google right now but they could probably both benefit from some elite level coaching

Vannata has been with Jackson/Wink for a while iirc

DJ's throw to armbar combo was a thing of beauty. Ferguson getting the round 3 submission couldn't have been more perfect for me unless he got it done in the first half of round 3.

His next camp needs to be focused on boxing defense, he's so good offensively but also way too hittable

Yep, Vannata has been with Jackson/Wink his whole professional career AFAIK.

Wasn't it the bad back as to why Lewis wanted to retire in the first place?

More so the fact he has kids and doesn't want to have brain damage from fighting and being able to spend time with them while they grow up.

The hindsight fact is that I'm sure Derrick wants to be financially comfortable which may have played a part in him coming back.

maglame: Curious because you mentioned something about Jackson / Wink in one of your prior posts, but do you see any evidence that fighters from Jackson / Wink do better than fighters from other camps or are more likely to be +EV wagers?

I realize it's a difficult problem since obviously better fighters tend to go to elite camps, as a consequence are more likely to win so there are definitely some correlation not necessarily implying causation issues here, but I'm curious if there is any evidence that they perform better overall once moving to Jackson / Wink, or if their performance noticeably drops off once leaving.

My thinking on Jackson / Wink is basically that they run a good camp and know what they're doing, but then again, so do American Top Team, American Kickboxing Academy, TAM, Tristar, etc. I'm sure that Greg Jackson is good at his job, but I also think people buy into the mystique / narrative that he's some kind of Jedi Master a little too easily. So overall, while being at Jackson is probably a plus overall, I've never hesitated to bet against their fighters if I thought the situation warranted it. Curious if you have any thoughts on that, or if there's any data that says they tend to perform better than the money line would indicate.

The most famous example is probably Travis Browne, but who knows what to make of that - did his performance drop off because he left JW, or because he moved to Edmund? :P

Rashad Evans probably had his best years at JW, though again hard to tell if the drop off after that was camp or injury or age related. GSP trained at JW for a while but he went to another elite camp with Tristar, so meh. Overeem has definitely been more consistent and fought much smarter since going there. Who knows what to make of a lifer like Jon Jones, he probably would have been good wherever he went.

I'd love to have the data to answer this question, but it's a lot of work (as far as I can tell) to get it. fightmetric doesn't list camps on their fights, sherdog only lists the last camp they fought for, and ufc's pages has nothing on camps. Wikipedia sometimes has current and previous camps, but sometimes doesn't. web.archive.org can be helpful in some cases (using archived sherdog pages), but is incredibly slow.

The database would have to be built from all sources with a lot of manual corrections. And even if I had the data accurately identifying a causal relationships might not be possible. I think with a close to complete database of fights with data on the at-that-time camp of the fighters it probably would, though, but again getting that data seems hard. Sherdog probably has it in their database. Wish I could have unrestricted access to sherdog+fightmetric xd

And now the Harris/Godbeer fight will take place at UFC 217, 28 days later.

Kinda sweet for both of them if they get paid twice...am assuming Godbeer did get paid his show money on Saturday.

Am kind of surprised there isn't a contingency such as um, an 'emergency fighter on standby' in case someone gets injured within 24/48/72 hours or in this very extreme case, TWO hours. Not feasible!?

Francis Ngannou really REALLY wanted to step up on extremely short notice to fight Fabricio Werdum but of course, that was never likely be allowed to happen even with the NSAC.

Goodbeer got paid show + win, so that was nice for him, he was also quite a big underdog.

Will Brooks also got paid, not sure if it was show + win, btw what happened with Lentz? dont like that dude, did he just not show up?

Yes agree, they should have a standby for the bigger fights. A guy that goes through training camp, and cuts weight, maybe they could even have him on standbyy for all the fights in his weight division on the card. Obviously he should get paid regardless if he fights.

heck I was the stand- in for my newspaper delivery area, so I had my own route but would also deliver the route for the guys that didn't show up, wich often meant that when it was raining and cold I often had to do a few more routes, wich sucked but hey got to make that money right.

Medical issues of some sort for Lentz hopefully they rebook that quickly too it's the perfect rebound fight for Brooks and Lentz deserves an ass kicking more than most

Super excited for 217 now, that's one of the best main cards in a long time with only 4 fights and the prelims would be a solid fight night card by themselves

Yeah 4 fights on main card makes sense, since it's 3 title fights that could very well all could go the 5 rounds distance. Let's hope it stays together.

Rumor that DC vs Oezdemir is booked for 219. That card would be shaping up nicely then too. Excited for end of the year MMA.

I don't think the UFC will ever pay for "emergency" fighters to go through a full training camp and weight cut and everything with no guarantee of actually fighting. Which is why they seem to prefer booking fights in the same weight class as a main event or other important fight on the undercard, where they can pull one of those fighters into a main card fight if required (like they did with Walt Harris this weekend).

Another pretty clear recent one was having Ozedemir v Manuwa on the same card as Cormier-Jones (even though he lost his actual fight that night, you've gotta figure Manuwa was the one they would have gotten to fill in).

On paper its def the best card since 205 and it's even comparable to that (although not from a buyrate perspective since no Conor)

Still, GSP's return against Bisping, a Joanna fight against the sort of explosive fighter who could put her in trouble if she can get a takedown, one of the highest skill BW fights of all time (Cruz vs TJ and Cruz vs Cody being the other potential candidates) that is also a grudge match and Wonderboy vs Masvidal which is probably for the next shot at the belt after Lawler. I can't wait for all four fights and while Joanna's a pretty big fav, all 4 should be competitive on paper. From a betting perspective my biggest play is def going to be Wonderboy, but I haven't made it yet and stupidly didn't hit the -12x when it was available.

They should def try and have a replacement ready for each title fight, i'm sure they can find one at MW with a whole pile of contenders ready even with Whittaker out, i'd say do Romero if it's GSP out and do Anderson Silva if it's Bisping out as there's a built in story for both Bisping/Romero and GSP/Anderson. Cruz could step in if either guy gets hurt at BW and should be in camp for the Rivera fight so that's nice and for WSW maybe Pereira since shes undefeated and fighting on the next card and all of the other obvious contenders would be rematches.

Feel pretty confident that no one will dropout with the exception of Cody vs TJ.