I think I'm down £110, its the added £250 straight up on this guy that has done the damage.

He is meant to have GREATLY improved, and he had his man damaged as well as followed up with eye pokes in both eyes ffs.


Leaving to the side the fighters the fight the event, money has a value and our judgement is way above that.

The monetary loss is not too important, its the decision to bet this uncoordinated tall guy that doesn't know how to progress a fight.

He couldn't even make it into the 4th...

I see it that Struve fell in love with dutch kick boxing too much and has never learnt to fight as a killer.

He is a polite dutch kickboxer.

that doesn't work in UFC.

Looks like I got it wrong on Struve, didn't catch the full fight but saw the finish

Does your model incorporate any type of power rating for fighters? I know that it tends to significantly favor underdogs, but do you mind sharing a little bit more info about what else it looks for?

Yeah. Since the beginning an Elo component has always been a part of the model. The idea was that, using some sort of rating system, it would set the baseline. Then other factors would modify that. Seems like a natural way to think about things. So someone with a high rating and good style matchup would be more favored than their rating implied, etc..

I'm honestly not sure if that's a good or bad idea at this point. The problem I have I think is that the more layers I add the more squished towards 50/50 the predictions tend to become (i.e. the more underdogs I'm betting). I might need to really reexamine how I judge fighter styles, and what is causing this to happen.

Other than that it contains stuff you'd expect. Age, guessing the amount of wear and tear, if they are improving or declining, etc..

Yeah I am actually working on developing an ELO style system too, I think it is a good way to look for candidates to research more.

I think in general with models, simplicity is good - the more variables you put in, the less robust the model is, the more difficult it is deciding what to weigh and how heavily, etc. The nice thing about an ELO style system is that it's simple and elegant.

Glad I kept it small last card as I only went 1/3 and the one was Khabilov who was a solid favourite.

Will be interesting to see if Conor fights at 219, it could happen but I kind of doubt we see him until early 2018. I hope i'm wrong though. 217 is only only supercard coming up but 215 at least is decent on paper, the problem is I don't really care about the outcome of any of the major fights. Borg isn't a compelling challenger for MM, Shev/Nunes could be a great fight but I don't really care who wins, same with Melendez/Stephens, i'd like to see Melendez lose as he's a drug cheat but Stephens isn't exactly likable. Cejudo/Reis is basically 'who joins Benavidez on the guys MM has already beaten but kinda deserve another shot one day' tier of the division and Magny/RDA I mean I get that they're both top 10ish welterweights, but the winner isn't going to get a title shot and I don't really care who wins. Pedro vs Latifi is probably the fight i'm looking forward to most along with the womens fight and from an entertainment perspective Melendez/Stephens could be good if it's a brawl.

Maybe Adriano Martins if he's a dog to Kajan Johnson? I need to rewatch Kajan's last fight or two though. Kind of tempted by Shevchenko wins in r3/4/5/by decision I guess. Maybe RDA by TKO if I can get +400 or better too by fight day.

4 cards in 5 weeks is a nice run of events for us though which is cool

According to my tests a rating system alone needs about 10-15 fights to start making useful predictions for UFC fights (that's 15 fights overall, not 15 in the UFC). The problem, of course, is that for a lot of fights in the UFC one or both of the fighters have less fights than that.

just bet the opposite of what your model says going forward as a test imo

reconsidered my comments in the heat of the moment last night.


just want to say I deeply appreciate Struve's amazing efforts last night, and that he did show great improvements.

There is a way to post and comment about true warriors and I need to learn to keep humble about myself and watch my arrogance.


Great fight, it was competitive and it could still be yet that Struves develops and adds tools and training to take himself to the next level.


Thanks Mr Struve you delivered a great great fight and I'm sure all of Holland and also Russia where on edge of seat which is what fans of UFC want.


SUPER UFC.

I thought Struve was looking pretty decent early on. Looked like he just struggled with the pace of the fight.

Looking at the next card my early thoughts are that Reis looks bigger then he should be. I do rate Cejudo but was expecting him to be around 1.4.

Yeah, I personally wouldn't bet on the basis of a model alone (although props to you if you can make it work.) But I do think an Elo style system could be useful for finding matches where it's worth doing a deeper analysis by watching tape. The problem that I'm having right now is watching tape on every fighter is very time consuming, so I'm looking for a way to kind of short cut the process a little bit.

But in terms of potential improvements, you might want to try scrapping the stylistic inputs. I think that would be a very difficult thing for a computer to estimate accurately, and would produce a lot of noise that wouldn't necessarily be all that predictive. If you want to get a feel for how guy's styles are going to work against each other, there's no substitute for watching tape IMO.

Just my two cents though, I think what you're trying to do is really cool.

I like Ilir Latifi at -130 vs Tyson Pedro.

This is a big step up in competition for Tyson Pedro - he's a good prospect with a bright future, but the two guys he's fought are both entry level UFC fighters with big holes in their games, and he's beaten them both largely through superior cage wrestling and BJJ. He's only had 4 amateur fights as well, so he is very green and due for a loss at this stage in his development. Pedro also got cleanly tagged and knocked down by Khalil Rountree, but was able to recover and exploit Khalil's weak ground game.

That **** isn't going to work against Latifi, who is a ++ defensive wrestler, is a monster physically, has fought much tougher competition, and has extremely dangerous hands. Latifi telegraphs a lot of his moves, can be predictable, is prone to gassing by virtue of his build (extreme mesomorph), and has probably already peaked as a fighter, but this should be a pretty easy matchup for him. I'd say he deserves to be at least a 2-1 favorite here.

Latifi up to +110 on 5D. I guess people watched the face-off videos and are impressed by Pedro's size advantage?

Could be fan money coming in on Tyson Pedro. Or I'm just a ****ty handicapper

Hoping Pedro can get the job done as a fan but staying away from betting

Interesting that Valentina is a slightly bigger fav than she was last time, -124 at the moment and it was a pickem last time I think Valentina got out to -115 for a bit maybe.

Decent Magny steam is interesting. Guess it's a decent size difference. Steam on Pedro is interesting too, someone's high on him to move the line that far.

Also lol @ me thinking I might get Martins at close to a pickem and he opens at -4xx, at that price I almost want Kajan

This is one of those weird cards where literally nothing is standing out to me as a must bet, going to wait for weigh ins I guess and see if anyone looks particularly good/bad.

Also what a disaster for the UFC 115 was already going to be one of the lowest buyrates ever, now Borg pulls out of the main. I guess they should ask Cejudo if he can take the fight on short notice and just pay Reis his show/win money? Too short notice for TJ obviously + he's booked vs Cody now. I doubt Benavidez can make the weight in 2 days either when he's not booked for the card.

Says the card is moving forward without MM and they're rebooking it (I assume for 216?) What a disaster. It would be a very solid fight night card still, but as a PPV it is utter garbage now. Nunes vs Shevchenko 2, Magny/RDA, Melendez/Stephens, Latifi/Pedro and I guess Cejudo/Reis moves to the main card now? Could be a great night of fights, but lowest PPV on name value in a while.

lol withou the dj fight and jds/ngannou im so not interested now, sigh.

LFA 22 Risk $529.65

Ian Heinisch (-210) vs Markus Perez $210.00 for $100.00
Maycee Barber (-149) vs Mallory Martin ~$169.65 for ~$113.86

Parlay:
Chris Gutierrez (-320) vs Mario Israel + Gilbert Smith (-275) vs Ben Smith $150.00 for $118.47

Bet Ilir Latifi at +120 and Rafael Dos Anjos at -160.

Watched a lot of tape on Gilbert Melendez vs Jeremy Stephens but decided to not pull the trigger. I think a prime Gilbert Melendez beats a prime Jeremy Stephens, but there are just too many unknowns here with Gilbert Melendez moving down in weight, possibly thinking about retirement, etc.

Yeah obviously a couple years ago Melendez would have been -220 here or something but USADA/age are a big question mark for him. I'm leaning Stephens but not pulling the trigger either

Even though my instincts as a handicapper lean the other way on both ended up taking Melendez +100 and Magny +162.5 just because it's a good price against the steam in both cases. Also i'm not sure I trust RDA with this much of a size/reach advantage of Magny I think RDA has to TKO him to win a lot of the time. Decided to trust my read that Shevchenko will outlast Nunes cardio and took Shev -125 as well (although I feel like on fight day I might have got a better price idk, but just locked them all in now). All 3 bets same size.

Melendez/Stephens will just come down to 'does Melendez have anything left'. If he does he should decision Stephens easily, if not he'll eat some bombs on the chin. Melendez didn't look that bad though at weigh ins even though he's off steroids due to USADA. Melendez looked very slightly bigger at the staredown which should help, if Stephens can't bully him he should win - gonna come down to if he has anything left I guess. Stephens is a moderate step down from Barboza.

Shevchenko basically needs to avoid being hulk smashed by Nunes for 3 rounds and she'll win if the fights competitive going into the midway point of the third due to better cardio.

Magny is HUGE compared to RDA, I might hedge that one with RDA by TKO as I think if he wins that's how, haven't decided yet.

Nunes slightly bigger than Shev but size diff is about what I expected, going to come down to whether Nunes can wreck her inside the first 2.5 rounds, after that it'll be all Shevchenko when Nunes gasses. Trusting that Shevchenko's all around MMA ability is enough along with having the best striking defense/fundamentals of anyone Nunes has faced. She can grapple too, she's just an excellent all rounder. So is Nunes offensively and she's more of a physical beast, but Nunes has that weakness in cardio and Shevchenko doesn't. Pretty simple equation again, can Shevchanko survive the early stages and does Nunes run out of cardio.

There def could be value live betting Shevchenko after the first and second rounds too so i'm going to keep an eye out for that, especially if she's lost a round or two but Nunes starts looking tired. If Shevchenko keeps the first two rounds competitive and/or survives without taking fight altering damage while making Nunes work hard I have no doubt she'll win. I expect we'll see a similar fight to the first one with Nunes winning the first round or maybe first two, then Shevchenko taking over from the third enroute to a late stoppage or clear 48-47 or 48-46 winning the last 3 rounds

Got a nice arb on the Pedro vs Latifi fight.
Pedro at 2.05 and Latifi at 2.2.
Euro books were slow at moving the odds when steam came on Pedro.

Only other bet is Shevchenko at 1.91. Agree that it is a tough card for betting don't see myself making any other bets.

Ended up getting rid of my Magny bet due to a pile of steam coming the other way and I did originally like RDA to TKO him, just a bit worried because of the huge size difference. Just got Melendez and Shevchenko now, and Melendez only because I got +100 and it's an arb vs Pinny etc plus he looked decent at weigh ins. Not the best Shev price, but I do think she beats Nunes.

Watch RDA vs Diaz. If he fights like that he should win easily. Magny has tiny chicken legs and is vulnerable to leg kicks, and was kind of exposed in the Lorenz Larkin fight.

Oh I agree on skillset that RDA wins for sure. Did you see the weigh in though? The size difference is huge and the main reason i'm not on RDA is that it's even more than I expected. Weird line movement too huge steam on Magny followed by huge steam on RDA to take the line right back to where it started

Lets lose some money again I guess. Lol.

Nunes +113
Magny +175
Reis +350
Pedro -134
Melendez -112
Vieira +180
Moras +235
Glenn +310
Johnson +425