This is looking like a gross way to lose after such a great comeback

If he can get up he can steal it though

Once again I like my bet at +201 or so but this hurts so much. All off a caught kick too.

Yeah, Arlovski is done. 29-28 Tybura.

Tybura's wrestling on point.

Super frustrating I was so sure Arlovski was a fav after 2 rounds, he was stuffing him time after time and Tybura had so little left, would have been a win if he could have kept stuffing the takedowns

Tybura is going nowhere slowly against the top 10 guys. I'd actually probably take Arlovski in a rematch against him at evens, fight looks totally different if he doesn't catch the kick in r1. Congrats to Tybura though he grinded out a win. My card's a disaster obviously at this point but have had a bunch of good cards in a row so oh well.

Can we please have Arlovski vs strikers only at this point of his career

I'm not sure how a ref got a 28-27 card for that one either. Weird.

Not betting this last one but if Holm doesn't win this i'll be incredibly shocked, pretty sure -4xx is value. I don't see how Bethe can get a takedown and RNC is basically the only way she can win imo

Well... I like Holm, but I don't want to lose money. Go Correia!

I think we're all the losers in this one.... zzz

Also all of the people that moved the u4.5 rounds from evens to -180 are probably losers too if this is Holm's gameplan. I get that she's a counterstriker but just wow

I started off wanting Holm to win, now I kind of want Correia to win because if you're going to have as big an edge striking as Holm does and do nothing with it then what's the point

I mean how do you score this nothing's happened. If it wasn't for Arlovski/Tybura r1 this could possibly be the worst main card ever from an entertainment standpoint, 3 rounds of Colby hugging legs, 2 rounds of gassed HWs (after a good r1), a serviceable fight between RDA and Saff where no one was hurt at any point and there was lots of cage leaning but not particularly good either and now a staring contest main event

Ah there we go, there's the finish. Correia really shouldn't be fighting the top girls.

Holm's noteworthy offense in her entire UFC tenure is a couple of jabs and two amazing highlight reel head kicks lol

Well. 1-7. -3u. -38%. Now my model is down to +21% ROI overall. Getting real good at picking the losers lol.

2-3 -1.20

So does anyone care to speculate what odds Penn vs Siver opens at? Penn is SO bad now, but Siver is also 38. He hasn't declined as much, but he also didn't start out at elite level, he was always a gatekeeper at best.

Interesting fight, but if Siver is a dog i'll probably take him because Penn was basically a punching bag against Rodriguez. In theory Penn should come to grapple with Siver but I certainly don't trust his corner to implement a competent gameplan. No idea what to make of that. I lean Chiesa in the main but i've been high on him for years

Hard to know what to make of Guida, even a couple years ago i'd have snap taken him vs Koch but at this point Koch has to be the favourite.

I feel like I need to watch Moroz try and defend takedowns before I work out who to pick in Moroz/Esparza but you'd think Esparza is the fav probably? Idk though, she's declined a bit.

I can't imagine i'll end up making many plays for the next card, maybe small on Chiesa/Siver depending where the prices end up, had gone on a big heater the last few cards but that came crashing back to earth today

glad i didnt wake up early morning to watch this, sounds horrible

Tough card, went 2-3 and down 2.5 units.

Holm won
Tybura by KO / TKO lost
Tuck won
DHK lost (my biggest bet) and looked pretty bad doing it.
Saffiedine lost

DHK was disappointing - he just couldn't get anything done on the cage and wasn't able to land effectively in the standup. Was surprised at how effectively Covington was able to neutralize him, he seemed to have a definite strength advantage in the clinch.

Saffiedine's loss was unsurprising. I love how the lazy announcer narrative around Saffiedine is to rave about what a technical striker he is, when in reality he's a mediocre striker who can switch stances and can occasionally flash a decent head kick coming out of the clinch, but is incapable of counter punching effectively (despite being a tall man with a big reach advantage) and zero KO power. Nice win by RDA.

In retrospect I wish I'd bet more on Tuck at -250, I thought he was maybe a 3-1 favorite at the time but in reality he was probably more than 4-1, due to age, physical strength, mileage, and absolutely needing this win after dropping 2 very close split decisions in the previous two. Still, nice to get a win there.

Anyways, on to the next card. He might be a douche, but I really like Kevin Lee from what I've seen of him. What are you guys thinking in that fight?

I think Lee and Chiesa are both legit, but Chiesa's faced the higher level guys. No idea what to make of it but lean Chiesa as a small dog. That said, Lee is younger and should be improving faster between fights so who knows.

In hindsight after seeing the card none of the lines seemed overly off, if every fight had a rematch under the same circumstances I don't see anyone's line being too different. Tuck might be a little bit shorter, same with Holm, Scoggins might be a -3xx fav instead of -4xx, Doane might be a small fav instead of a small dog and maybe Pudilova a slightly bigger fav. Camacho would be slightly shorter, or probably a bunch shorter but still a dog with a full camp. Arlovski would prob be more like +160 than +200 I think. Covington might drift back to -300 from -2xx but it seems that the fight was basically a best case scenario for him where DHK didn't get many opportunities and Covington didn't make any mistakes. RDA would probably still be a low -2xx fav vs Saff. Maybe -250, idk.

I was definitely off base in thinking Kim/Covington was a pick'em and I guess that's the end of DHK's days as a top 10ish WW now.

Kind of surprising that over the entire card there was no line that was horrendously off in hindsight as there usually is on most cards imo

and yeah to anyone who missed it just catch the finish gifs or on youtube, none of the fights were must watch and it was a below average card overall and the last 3 fights were basically unwatchable with the exception of the first round of Arlovski/Tybura

Cyborg vs Anderson added to 214 for the womens 145 belt, GDR stripped as champion for refusing to fight Cyborg who is the #1 contender. Feels pretty gross but at the same time it sets a good precedent, if a champion won't fight the #1 contender they should be stripped of the belt and GDR was totally expendable.

I know the UFC only created the division for Cyborg to beat cans in entertaining fashion and Holly wasn't supposed to lose to GDR (and shouldn't have lost due to the cheating and iffy judging), it does somewhat feel like GDR has been hard done by because she's standing up refusing to fight a drug cheat but at the end of the day you have to fight the #1 contender. Maybe she should have asked for a clause that Cyborg forfeits 100% of her purse and is permanently banned from the UFC if she fails a drug test, would be hard for Cyborg to turn down if she's clean without seeming like she has something to hide. Seems like GDR just didn't want any piece of Cyborg to the degree that she'll let herself be stripped of the belt over taking the fight though.

Also Tim Hague died as result of injuries from a boxing match which is sad

Is it gross that a champion refuses to fight the obvious number 1 contender? Gross would be UFC stripping DJ who has a valid reason for not wanting to face TJ.

I still think DJ should have to fight TJ if the UFC says he's #1 contender within a reasonable timeframe, so long as the UFC/TJ guarantee TJ will make weight and compensate DJ fairly if he doesn't (fight off + DJ get's his show and win money and all of TJ's purse seems fair to me). Fighters move weight classes and if there was a clear #1 contender at FLW then DJ would have a point but there isn't, the clear #1 contender is Benavidez who DJ has beaten twice already and then next in line is Borg who has a 2 fight win streak. TJ is the #1 contender and ex champ a weight class up plus TJ has never failed a drug test or failed to make weight so they don't even have that excuse. I honestly think DJ is scared that TJ will beat him and prevent him from beating Anderson's record (size advantage, wrestling edge and elite striking - pretty similar fighter to Cruz who beat him granted a long time ago). Let's face it, if MM loses the title he's not going to be making 500k a fight he'll be making 100/100 or whatever.

I get that you should have to win a fight in a new weight class before getting a title shot but at the same time this is a pretty unique case where there's no #1 contender in the weight class below but the #1 contender in the weight class above is confident he can make weight moving down and can' fight in his normal weight class due to the champ being injured, not to mention in theory this fight should sell better than any of MM's previous fights and MM would get PPV points (granted it still won't sell huge or anything). The only explanation is that he is scared of losing.

A champion shouldn't get to duck contenders, if it was say WW and the UFC wanted to make Woodley vs Wonderboy 3 or Woodley vs Masvidal and he said 'no, Maia is the clear #1 contender I want to fight him first' that would be entirely fair because Maia is indisputably the #1 contender but that just isn't the case at FLW.

DJ already had a fight signed and it's pretty clear the UFC was dicking him over on the switch to TJ by not providing any guarantees if TJ missed weight. I thought DJ was just being a ***** at first, but since he was apparently being offered literally nothing to switch opponents, it made no sense for him to switch there. Not wanting to fight catchweight against a top-3 guy moving down for the first time is reasonable, so I see DJ's point that either TJ needs to show he can make the weight or the UFC needs to guarantee some kind of payday if he doesn't. If that happens and he still won't fight, then I'm back on the ***** bandwagon.

All UFC fights are human cock fighting and no one knows a damn thing. I heard there was some super genius around these parts a while ago who made some sort of bet where he took all the dogs straight up or something like that, and won. I think he got 3:1. It was something along those lines, I forget exactly.

Siver is still a competitive fighter whereas BJ simply shouldn't be fighting anymore. I think Siver crushes BJ but if he starts to gas then it could get interesting.

PS. Bellator is arguably putting on a better card this weekend....could be the beginning of a new era.

So Cerrone is anywhere between +125 and +140 against Lawler, does that make sense to anyone?

I mean it's Robbie Lawler so there's always the chance he's just gonna shut Cerrone's lights out at some point... but it's only a three-round fight, Lawler is a notoriously slow starter, isn't Cerrone simply outworking him the most likely outcome here?

...unless that champion's name is Conor McGregor. Or Michael Bisping. Or maybe Tyron Woodley :P

Agree GDR was totally expendable as champion, and I don't think she had a hope in hell of getting either the UFC or Cyborg to agree to the kind of drug test stipulations you mentioned. She's just got no leverage: even as the "champion", she's not the drawcard in that fight. If Mark Hunt couldn't get those kind of assurances against Overeem then GDR was always going to get screwed.

As for Mighty Mouse and Dillashaw... I honestly don't understand the hard-on the UFC suddenly has for that fight. I mean are they just looking for something they know Mighty Mouse won't agree to so they've got grounds to axe the division or something?!? The UFC has never been in the TJ Dillashaw business at any point before now: if anyone in the past few years deserved an instant rematch after losing their belt it was him, but he's been effectively sidelined ever since. He's not a proven draw, there's no real reason to think a DJ-TJ fight will do much more business than any other DJ fight... and I think it's fair for everyone concerned to question how Dillashaw even makes 125.

Cody tj is still the fight to make their rivalry on the current ufc season is great plus the fight should deliver. Hoping Cody isn't out long

I think they wanted to get TJ a fight- maybe there's some sunk cost already involved- once Cody fell through without risking him losing in a way that blows that fight. If he gets waxed, blame it on the cut, if he wins, promote the Cody fight as a superfight, etc. DJ said that he talked to UFC about fighting Cody at 125 after Cody "called him out" and UFC told him to go eat a bag of dicks because it wouldn't draw. If true, even more reason to tell Dana to suck it with TJ.

Yep, exactly. Cody-TJ is a fight that makes tons of sense.

I see nothing but downside for everyone concerned with a DJ-TJ fight. It probably won't sell much because flyweight fights never do... so the UFC doesn't have much to gain. If Mighty Mouse wins, it takes the shine off a Cody-TJ fight. If TJ wins, they've lost the shine on their best-of-all-time fighter. The UFC has never cared about keeping Dillashaw busy in the past, don't see why they would now. So... why on earth is this fight a thing all of a sudden?

I get that it would be a cool fight if it actually happened: I'd watch the hell out of it, I really enjoy both fighters. But I don't see any business logic behind it.

As far as guarantees for Mighty Mouse go, IIRC Dana said he was going to book Borg on the same card and if TJ doesn't make weight then no biggie, he'll just switch the fight to Borg instead so Johnson will still get to fight and get paid. DJ's reaction was less than enthusiastic about that prospect...