Grats Swoop!

Was that getting on Joanna in a live bet? If so well done.

Just got 5u on Gustafsson -175 for the next card, Glover packs a punch but doesn't quite have the hand speed and raw athleticism that Rumble does and he's really getting up there in age. That said, Gustafsson's coming off a long layoff, but I still see him as being closer in skill to the top (Jones and DC, I guess Rumble is retired now but he'd be the other tier 1.5 guy) than he is to the next tier of contenders (Glover, Bader, Davis, etc)

I've actually bet on Glover a lot recently but I think this is just a case of the #3 LHW is just a lot better than the #4 LHW. Glover could sleep him but I don't think he can take him down at will and he'll basically never win a decision on the feet and Gustafsson's taken some serious shots and only ever been knocked out by a full force Rumble shot to the chin.

The wild card is Gustafsson's layoff, yeah it's less than a year this time but he's still only fought once since November 2015. Being 30 vs 37 may help a bit too as at some point in the next few years Glover is going to fall off the old age cliff whereas Gustafsson still has a few years of his prime left as long as he still wants it enough mentally. He didn't look amazing against Blachowicz but he was coming off a long layoff and didn't lose any rounds or anything. I don't think the price is too far off, i'd say Gustafsson is something like a -190 favourite but I do think it's his fight to lose - it's also a big career trajectory fight for these two guys, one of them fights for the title in 2018 and one of them probably never fights for the title again. Gustafsson could still be champ if he can put it all together, but i'm pretty confident Glover isn't going to be champ as long as DC or Jones is around, Gustafsson could beat either of them on a good day as we saw in his close fights with them.

Stipe really got that hunger to win, I really liked my KO props on him. The guy that looked like he got some potential is Chase Sherman, anybody else think he got great potential? Guy takes a hell of a punch, think is fight IQ could be better, in that fight he really did not need to take so much damage but he seems to really like being in a brawl, rather than simply outsmarting and making sure he'd win the fight.

Edgar looked fantastic too, I completely mis-read that 1 and if he fights Holloway I think he does something similar. I wonder how he'd fair vs Mcgregor, you think Conor was ducking him few years ago?

That Poirier fight screwed me over as I had props on the finish + rounds and it was def heading in that direction.

I was on Branch but then decided last minute to bet the Pool, got persuaded last minute.

Who's going to beat Joanna? She seems like a lock bet to me, I don't see anybody in that division beating her.

I still think Masvidal won that fight, but I'm going to go watch it again. R1 was Maja, R2 was Masvidal and round 3 they both had an equal amount of control time but Masvidal got more damage imo. In fact Maja did nothing iirc in that 3rd but just hang on for dear life. Masvidal played too much into Maja's game plan as well which I really did not like. Anderson did it perfectly vs Maja, by just either sprawling and getting out/running away instantly or just insta running from the TD.

After the 1st TD, I thought Maja would struggle and it looked like he was going too, with Masvidal sprawling and Maja not getting the TD but then you see Maja transition on the floor and grap his leg, that was Masvidal's mistake right there, cause after that sprawl, he needs to insta get back to his feet, but he choose to roll around too much imo. Think he made that mistake twice.

Good card, great fights overall, I lost a tiny amount overall, but happy with my bets, in hindsight the Yair bet was perhaps my worst bet and he was just not ready for that kind of level of fight, he's still young though, see if he can bounce back.

Sweats are fine as long as they are tiny bets compared to your more favorable ones. Have you only just started to place bigger bets on your more favorable bets?

No i've always sized according to perceived edge, but i've upped the degree to which I do that in that the sweat bets are now a smaller percentage of bets I think are significant value relative to before - my average bet size is also bigger than it used to be but that's mostly because I have a bigger bankroll than I used to due to doing very well on a few other sports over the last year or two - my MMA betting is a pretty insignificant percentage of my overall turnover but I enjoy discussing it/analysing it the most.

I think Gadelha is the only one who beats Joanna more than 2-3 times in 10, Joanna's quite lucky to be 2-0 against her. I do think Joanna is a small fav there, but Gadelha is one of the few fighters i'd happily bet on at +200 against her. Rose is probably live if she goes 100% all out in round one and accepts that she's going to lose if she can't get the quick finish.

Edgar's a pretty rough matchup for Conor, decent movement and hand speed, enough to hang kinda if not outstrike Conor, and a good chin and recovery and wrestling offense. That fight would come down to whether Conor can turn Edgar's lights out before he takes him down and grinds away his cardio over two rounds or so. I'd have taken Edgar a year ago but i'd probably take Conor now, although maybe not if he takes a long time off. Fight won't happen now though as Conor's not going back to FW ever, he's going to defend the LW title and maybe try and fight at WW and probably fail at it due to being too small for WW (he could def win a fight or two but he won't be a long term champ there, whereas at LW if he gets past Khabib I could see him being champ for 10 defenses like MM/Silva, I fully expect him to wreck Ferguson and probably everyone else on the LW roster at the moment with Khabib being the toughest MU for him although similarly Conor is the toughest MU for Khabib)

Side note: That is one of the tricks Houdini used to get his lock picks for escapes out of jail cells, etc. He'd be stripped to his underwear or nude, get searched thoroughly (oftentimes by policemen who knew how to frisk properly), yet his "good luck" kiss from Bess included a little gift. Just one of his ways.

going to say something that is going to get eye brows raised but has to be said, one of those situations you thought it a long time ago and its been in the back of your mind.


I think I over estimate my understanding of MMA fighting.
I know I suffer from a lack of valid information.
I believe I over estimate other fans view and value.

A good example of this is the dos Santos vs. Miocic fight,

Dos Santos is shot truth be told, he is no where even close to his previous best performances , he looked completely overwhelmed by a more timed stronger fluid and peak Miocic. should he have been in the cage with him, yes of course but he got smashed to pieces EASILY.

How many people here shipped 3 units on Miocic?


Chas Skelly was much worse than Jason Knight, sure he got clipped towards the end of the 2nd and it was a tear up, but I'm talking his beast level was vastly more than this chas plank

Hind sight is always 20 20 vision, but you get my point right, my level of exposure to this sport is not enough that I feel I have a strong edge. It takes honesty to admit this,

I was extremely convinced maia / mas was not going the distance but look at the result, maia at the end of the fight said " Masvidal, has some of the best BJJ I have ever seen in the cage".

what?

Who knew that Masvidal had this level of quality at BJJ on the mat, this slightly nullifies a huge aspect of our edge betting Maia no? He was meant to have only good wrestling, do we bet the Inside the distance knowing this, yes I guess we do but is it still a bridge jump? I don't think so. We got lucky.

Also, if you making 15 / 30, 40, 50 units on a event it means you are exposed to a huge draw down if it goes against you.


The point I am making is it, I am a armature at this, if you put ten moving objects in a large room, turn out the lights, and start firing a water pistol and you tag a few things are you a master? hell no.

There is not enough light and post fight no one highlights the missed information or lessons learned.


When you trade in the markets, as udemy has been teaching me, you are meant to keep what's called a trade journal, you put in it all details and reflections.
example: trade 1.
- why you placed it,
- did you stick to your rules "the best practises of getting in and out of a trade, things like sticking to roll management, where you in good mental shape when you placed the trade etc".


The next best thing to placing bets live whilst in the actual event with your iPhone once you get a read on the fight? is placing bets with good solid pre fight evaluation and considered industry news.

SwoopAE, you are right, you are meant to place solid bets when you have a edge,


I don't like the way I bet MMA atm, personal chastisement (Chastisement is the act of scolding or punishing someone). When is the last time you (all of you) went ahead and downloaded the last 5/ 10 fights of fighter X and thoroughly examined the stats,

Do we see a telling decline in the numbers of JDS, do we see an increase in the numbers with Miocic, can these numbers be graphed, can we add weighted averages, outside of this what do the top ten insider people say about the camps, the consider thought.

Where are they details in the thread.

We are armatures in this thread, we are pissing in the wind because importantly 1700 hundred pages in there is no refinement in betting, we just roll into the thread and slop our testacies to the table with opinions,

Every one has opinions.

Maia vs masvidal was a NO BET.
Stipe Miocic v Junior dos Santos was a Miocic bridge jump.
Jason knight deserved serious attention pre fight.


I am a losing MMA better has to be said. (and NO IMPROVEMENT PROCESS)

pretty ridicules, he had nothing in his mouth walking down, then as the camera panned backwards, he went over to the left, kiss that women, then re-joined back towards the cage and looked like he was chewing an apple.

lets put it this way, even if she didn't pass him any thing, you might as well say she did, because by all acceptable governance of the fighters, it happened, prove it otherwise, sure you can say prove it occurred but wtf was he chewing post kissing the women, ?

I don't think he did any thing, but my thinking doesn't count for toffee and there are thousands of annually retentive people that will climb all over it.


Any one able to capture the moment mentioned Mas walk down into a gif?

some one has far to much time on their hands

what ever that kiss was it was sloppy enough she had to clear her face with her tongue post kiss.

It looks like UFC had the matrix agent smiths all around her so she would have been fully vetted, highly unlikely any thing happened but the point remains ideally fighters are not French kissing 3rd partys 10 seconds before the fight and masvidal was chewing a lot just after this kiss.

Some thing for Joe Rogan to take a look at in his pod cast imo if some one knows how to get the gif to him~?

dam, it looks like she did pass some thing.



no?
would you bet your life she never, I wouldn't, she pushed out and then there was a transaction period, (lol that sounds funny).

looks suspect.
UFC need to change the rules here imo.

fighter needs to be vetted and NO passing of fluids or objects in the walk in.

unacceptable, imagine If you had huge sums on Maia here. would you want to see this?

edit: its telling, watch masvidals chin, he has to move it down to let the object through to his inner mouth.

Some interesting stuff in your post balla. I watch the last few fights for any big bets I make but I don't always for the smaller ones - note my unit isnt a percentage of bankroll it's just $100 so today I picked up 3k and change on this card which was a pretty big card for me, I have a bigger sports betting BR now than when I started so I naturally raise the amount of 'units' my average is, my average used to be about a $100 bet, now it's in the $300 range probably but i'm still counting the same amount as when I started as a unit even though i'm firing 1-2k a game on some other sports that I have a bigger edge on now. Still, my Maia bet was about double the size of my Weidman bet, which in turn was the largest MMA bet i'd made in a long time. I legitimately thought he was -200 pre fight with a much higher degree of confidence than most fighters as i've watched every single one of Maia's UFC fights and in some cases multiple times and i've seen something like 12 of Masvidals fights so I was very familiar with both fighters and have been watching them both almost since I got into MMA in around 2009 in Maia's case and since about 2011 in Masvidal's case whenever he started to gain a bit of a profile in Strikeforce. I'm actually not sure if i've seen anyone fight more times than Maia, i'm pretty sure i've seen something like 24 or 25 of his fights in full. I've missed a couple of Bispings but he has slightly more fights so it'd be close.

I think after the Masvidal/Maia fight that Maia is still a -150ish favourite, not the -200 I was thinking prefight, but i'd be surprised if he didn't win 6/10 fights between them. Come to think of it he may be a -200 favourite after all although probably not that high - I feel like getting shaken off at the end of r1 to make that round a coinflip is unusual, and nothing super unusual happened in the rest of the fight, both guys came to grind and do their thing and while Masvidal does have good TDD and BJJ I just don't think he can stuff Maia at will which is what he'd need to do to win over half the time.

Knight was clearly underrated, I overrated Skelly based on the Bektic fight and the other fight where he did a flying kick to crush a guy in the first minute. Maybe the Blanco fight I forget.

Edgar was clearly underrated and was at least a -250 favourite if not higher, probably more like -350 based on what we saw, I bet on Edgar with my second biggest bet of the card but would have had more on if i'd realised how weak Rodriguez's TDD was, I thought Edgar would win but that it would be a closer fight and he might get some takedowns but not at will

Masvidal is clearly legit too, although he's not the most active fighter and that may hurt him against certain opponents, like I think he'd do well against Cerrone again, or guys like Magny he would crush, but he'd struggle against Wonderboy. I actually think he matches up super well against Woodley and has just the right style to beat him unless Woodley can KO him cold with a counter. Lawler is an opponent that'd be hard to pick for Masvidal

Pre-Rothwell I wouldn't have picked JDS over Stipe even as a dog, but I thought he'd made the right adjustments to keep circling/moving instead of being backed into the cage. He hadn't. JDS is still too good to lose to anyone outside the top 6-7 or so though until he declines more, a good role for him would be headlining Brazil cards against contenders they want to test to see if they're ready to fight for the belt. Stipe gets Cain when he's healthy and if he wins that and the rematch with the Overeem/Werdum winner and Ngannou he can start entering the HW Goat conversation. I'm assuming Lewis loses before he gets to a title shot surely, Stipe's next few fights should be Cain, one of Werdum/Reem and Ngannou probably. At that point if Jones is healthy and champion you set that superfight up (or you could do the same if DC is healthy and champion)

Joanna is clearly not going to lose to a striker at this point it will take a Gadelha with more cardio grappling performance to dethrone her and the grappler has to have serviceable enough striking to not get KO'd and to set up the takedowns. I thought the fight would be closer again although I did bet on Joanna I expected her to lose a round and possibly two before taking over, she took over late in the first and never looked back.

Alvarez's striking defense needs serious work, he has a decent chin when it comes to not being dropped but he seems to get rocked every fight and is so hittable it's a problem. I don't see him ever holding the belt again. Poirier will stay top 10 for a long time but I can't see him getting to the title either because he can't outstrike a Conor and he can't outgrapple a Khabib and he probably can't out-MMA a Tony Ferguson either.

Branch will make a nice lower top 15 fighter, but he's not going to be fighting for the title any time soon, I thought there was a chance he'd improved enough. Jotko will be a gatekeeper to the top 15.

Rodriguez still has potential because of how young he is but he needs serious work on his BJJ and more importantly his TDD.

Didn't actually catch the early part of the card yet, i'll watch it sometime when i'm bored midweek probably or at least catch the finishes.

The only reason Maz even was in discussion for round 1 was because Maia was trying to setup an end of round armbar attempt rather than just punching him from behind and misplayed it leading to Mazvidal getting top position right at the end due to the power of gravity.

Mazvidal was basically Maia's ***** for 75-80% of the fight. He did a good job stopping the choke attempts but Maia didn't seem hurt by any of Mazvidal's striking throughout.
4 takedowns to 0, multiple passes, constantly attacking for submissions from dominant position. Maia landed more strikes and they had the same significant strike %. Maia did seem to gas worse than in previous fights, many noted (including Maz) that he seemed to be having a rough cut.

Fight clearly was Maia's.

Maia vs Woodley
Cerrone vs Lawler
Wonderboy vs Mazvidal

by end of summer

with GSP, Connor and possibly a Diaz entering the fray...WW is on fire right now.

disappointing night of fights considering all the good matchups. it was all blowouts or boring fights. nothing really compelling except for the Alvarez-Poirier fight that got ruined by the illegal knee. they really need to agree on some unified rules for the knees as its confusing for refs & fighters

congrats swoop on the Maia score, definitely must have been sweating that 3rd scorecard

don't understand why any of you are live betting when you are all struggling to beat the market already

Lvr shouldn't you be fellating members of the millionaire club in the low content thread instead of trolling here?

Lawler vs Cowboy, who you guys got? I have an early line as a pick'em.

I'm considering a new strategy of just jumping on opening lines a bit more aggressive, often odds change quite a lot, where if you got the right side you can end up with a great bet that is beating the pinny closing lines by a lot.

i suggest you go bet on aldo he is 1.75 now, I think he will drop fast to 1.5 soon

I'd snap bet Lawler to -150 let alone at evens vs Cerrone. Yeah, Woodley caught Lawler but unless his wars have completely destroyed him, he has way better standup than Cerrone, Cerrone is more prone to getting dropped and I doubt Cerrone has the strength or offensive wrestling to take Lawler down, plus Cerrone likes to brawl. They'll brawl, it'll be fun, then Lawler will put Cerrone down and finish him and Cerrone will go back to annihilating 12-20 ranked fighters for a while before failing against the elite again. Cerrone is what he is, a top 10 but not a top 5 fighter. Not convinced Lawler's dropped off that much yet and I think it's a great stylistic matchup for him - if Masvidal can put Cerrone down (and Barboza dropped him, RDA put him down as did Pettis back in the day etc) then Lawler can do it. Sure, it's not a lock but Lawler is definitely the favourite unless the wars have completely ruined him and Woodley could catch anyone with a clean shot.

I like Aldo -129 too, but I really want Holloway to win so i've held off for now - I think Aldo's pretty likely to outclass Holloway unless he's stepped up his game to yet another level.

Also lots of Gustafsson steam today so my 5u @ -175 is in super good now, I think the current line's a lot closer to the true price.

Mark Hunt looks like value at home in NZ against Derrick Lewis, Lewis will need to take him down and pound him out from top position to win and Hunt's TDD has improved, I mean Lewis was getting lit up by Travis Browne kicks and it's still crazy Browne lost that fight. Yes, Hunt is past his prime and Lewis is in his prime, but Lewis is not good at MMA he's just a hulking beast who can hulk smash people. Still, he's far too hittable to be a favourite against Hunt. Opened +135 and in to +115, I expect he closes as a favourite if he is at all in shape and taking the fight seriously and he should be given he's fighting in front of a home crowd in New Zealand. I mean at the end of the day in the UFC outide of the mccorkle loss in 2010 all of his losses have been to top 3 at the time fighters (Reem was coming off a competitive fight with the champ, Miocic went on to win the belt shortly after, as did Werdum, JDS was both a fight removed from being champ and from fighting again for the belt) and then the Bigfoot draw was from when Bigfoot was on TRT and he won the rematch. Hunt also lost to Brock, but Brock was on steroids and has worlds better wrestling and athleticism than Lewis, so that's not super relevant either.

Lewis has a pile of heart to keep overcoming adversity etc but he still went to a split decision with Roy Nelson who Hunt flattened and was in deep trouble against Edmond-coached Travis Browne who is a shell of the former monster he was pre-Edmond. He also took 4 rounds to put away Abdurakhimov and was badly losing the fight until he got the finish in round 4, nearly got submitted by Ruan Potts who is awful and was brutally finished by both Shawn Jordan and Matt Mitrione, neither of whom have better precision or power than Mark Hunt (they may be slightly faster but Hunt has better technique and power than both)

Lewis is by far the most overrated fighter at HW and Hunt, while he'll never touch the belt or beat a top 3 guy at this point, is WAY more than he can handle. Yes, if Lewis can get into mount he could win via GnP but Hunt has a hell of a chin and better grappling than he used to and we've seen that Lewis can be dropped by someone connecting on his chin and he often takes damage. He can't take damage against Hunt, he will faceplant the first time Hunt connects on his chin.

I'm probably going to smash the Hunt wins via R1 KO line as well as straight up, this one seems like insane value and I think Hunt is at least a -150 favourite. Usually the value is on the up and coming prospect/contender against the vet, but there are some exceptions (eg Edgar vs Yair, and I suspect Aldo vs Holloway) and given the poor stylistic matchup for Lewis as he's prone to being put to sleep by elite strikers and probably can't take Hunt down and hulk-smash him easily which is how he beats the mid tier HWs. Sure he could get Hunt down and finish, but I think it's far more likely that Hunt finds his chin at some point for a walk off KO. It's in New Zealand so if Hunt is in trouble he won't quit mentally as the crowd will be cheering him on and every round starts standing.

I think Hunt, Gustafsson and Aldo are all value. I like TJ vs Cody right now too because Cody's having treatment for a back injury, even if he gets healthy enough to fight he probably won't be 100%. Werdum over Reem too, yes Reem is a smarter fighter than he used to be but Werdum would have won their last fight years ago if he hadn't done all of the back-flopping and Reem can't use a wrestling based gameplan - I think Reem needs to sleep Werdum in the first because if he doesn't, Werdum will eventually connect and Reem's chin just can't take a shot.

Bisping @ 3.70 is probably solid against Romero in the event they fight, Romero has to knock Bisping out in the first two rounds imo and while yes that is the most likely outcome, Bisping is way more live than anyone's givin him credit for here. He has the better cardio by far, decent volume striking and good takedown defense, his biggest problem is that he is hittable and Romero throws bomb - but if Romero can't put him out cold when he connects, I could see Bisping winning a 48-47 or 49-46 here quite a lot or even a late TKO finish if Romero gasses hard in the championship rounds.

Gustafsson odds getting hammered. Managed to get 1.57 earlier and still 1.53 available at some euro softbooks. 1.39 at Pinny currently.

Yeah i'm on the same 1.57 from before the move, although I locked mine in a week or two ago. Hope Glover isn't injured (unless its minor and he's going to fight anyway) but not surprised I do think Gustafsson should win at about 2/3 here or maybe slightly over that. I think there's value to about 1.50/-200 but not after that.

Hoping a few more books open Hunt vs Lewis odds soon as i'm no longer keeping a 5dimes balance due to my info being credit card stolen from their database due to their loltastic security.

Apparently we'll know if Conor vs Floyd is happening soon, I kinda hope it doesn't as Conor will almost certainly get embarrassed and it'll hold up the LW division for ages and i'd love to see him fight Ferguson this year (and Khabib although Ferguson has to be next in line now given Khabib missed weight and he'll have to fight again to prove he can make the weight before getting a title shot)

ROI is useless stat

Agree with Swoop here; think there is a lot of value on Hunt - he is just a far far better striker than Lewis, and just far better techinically in all aspects actually. He also more than matches up in the non techincal aspects that seem to carry Lewis through. Just don't really see a path to victory for Lewis beside punchers chance and Hunt is good defensively (standing) as well as still having a good chin. Very surprised he's an underdog here, I think he wins the vast majority of the time and when he wins, it'll also be by KO the majority of the time. When my book releases those odds hopefully I can get +150.

Also really like Gustaffson, he just moves a lot better than Glover. Glover beats guys who aren't well rounded by being better at the aspects that they are weak in. He KO'd bader (not before almost being KO'd himself), Rashad (who's far past his prime), he took down OSP and dominated on the ground, as well as his last fight vs Jared. When he can't make a fighter fight to their weak point, he generally gets outclassed (jones obv, Phil Davis) and I don't think he can take down Gus, Gus is more fluid, has better footwork and technical boxing. I think Glover will really struggle to get inside and do damage. I'd bet Gus to -250 here.

Lawler is just a lot better than Cerrone, he has more heart, more power, much better boxing (albeit Cerrone has a much better kicking game, but I think Lawler will push the pace and make it a brawl/hard for Cerrone to keep distance and utilise kicks effectively), great TDD. I'd bet Lawler to -200 here.

The hunt fight, will Mark out-work Lewis by dec if it get that far?

I really like Mark Hunt, so this isn't easy to say, but I don't think it's a good idea to be relying on his chin any more. Especially in with guy that hits as hard as Derrick Lewis. Hunt has been knocked out in four of his past five losses (if you still count the Lesnar fight as a loss - all four of his most recent losses if you don't).

His only wins in the past few years have been over broken down guys like Roy Nelson, Bigfoot and Frank Mir.

I'm not as high on Derrick Lewis as some people, but it seems about right to me that he's the decided favourite here.

i would be leaning heavily on Lawler here. Lawler has size & strength advantage and is more explosive. Cerrone has better kicks & jiujitsu (wont matter much because this will be standup). Cerrone always finds a way to lose against the top tier. i dno if its a mental thing or what, but he's terrible in big fights