yeah that is pretty much 0%, cant think of any plausible reason, its not like Diaz in particularly is the big money fight that Conor wanted, he would made a lot of money regardless, fighting RDA or just about about anyone. He just underestimated Diaz big time.

Now if you ask me if Diaz is maybe thinking about losing the rematch on purpose so he would be able to get a 3rd rubber match, that would def be higher than 0%, I think even higher than 10%. It's somewhat a great consolation for Diaz that even if he gives it all and loses he might get that 3rd big money fight, kind of perfect win-win situation.

LOL yeah, that's true. I don't think he'll necessarily do it, but losing this fight (especially if he's on a flat fee/PPV points deal and not a show/win deal) to set up one more red panty night would probably be +EV for Nate.

They'll likely fight a third time regardless of this outcome at some point down the line.

Diaz/Conor is just one of those fights I'm gonna unload on. Diaz at +105 is crazy to me. Better ground game, better cardio, more volume of punches. Diaz was on 12 days notice and wasn't in real trouble of getting stopped by Conor's power. I believe fight goes into 3rd/4th but Diaz gets its done is fairly similar fashion. The longer the fight goes the more it favors Nate. I'd think the odds should be flipped. I've been crushed last 3 cards tho so who knows I guess lol

Diaz +120 to the bank.

Lotta late substitutions on this card. Veteran heavyweight DJ Linderman replaced Jack May vs two time WSOF title challenger Derrick Mehmen just days ago for example. Anderson Dos Santos has a wild style that ends in finishes. He won the 135 pound title fight at Titan FC 37 against Ricky Simon by submission but didn't earn the belt because he missed weight. Jose Torres & Abdiel Velasquez are both predicting their interim flyweight title fight doesn't go the distance in interviews. I'm hoping for wild fights, chaos and stoppages for the unders even in the bantamweight bout and 125 pound interim title fight. Little round robin parlay to make this card interesting:

Titan FC 40 Risk $100.00

10 two-team parlays at $10.00 each risking $100.00 total to win $278.98

Freddy Assuncao/Gesias Cavalcante Over 3½ (-115)

Abdiel Velazquez/Jose Torres Under 3½ (+130)

Desmond Green (-380) vs James Freeman

Andrew Whitney/Anderson dos Santos Under 2½ (-105)

DJ Linderman/Derrick Mehmen Under 1½ (+140)

Added:

Desmond Green wins inside distance (-140) $70.00 for $50.00
Anderson Dos Santos wins inside distance (+120) $50.00 for $60.00

you guys gonna wait to see if irish money pours in on conor to tip the line more in our favour?

Big line movement against the undefeated young prospect Torres. Had to add a bet at this price:

Jose Torres (+145) vs Abdiel Velazquez $100.00 for $145.00

Great job by Freddy Assuncao to submit JZ Cavalcante. Wish he would have waited two more minutes though. Four dogs out of five bettable fights hit if you count Torres with his late line movement. Tiny profit of .23 units is better than losing.

Titan FC 40 Results

Jose Torres (+145) vs Abdiel Velazquez $100.00 for $145.00= $145.00
Desmond Green wins inside distance (-140) vs James Freeman $70.00 for $50.00= -$70.00
Anderson Dos Santos wins inside distance (+120) vs Andrew Whitney $50.00 for $60.00= -$50.00

Round Robin parlay Risking $100.00 (10 parlays at $10.00) To Win $278.98= -$1.39

Freddy Assuncao/Gesias Cavalcante Over 3½ (-115)
Abdiel Velazquez/Jose Torres Under 3½ (+130)
Desmond Green (-380) vs James Freeman
Andrew Whitney/Anderson dos Santos Under 2½ (-105)
DJ Linderman/Derrick Mehmen Under 1½ (+140)
-----
Total Profit= $23.61

I wouldn't be so sure about that. I remember with the Aldo fight that money came in late on Aldo. Also if enough people wait to bet on Diaz since they expect the line to move in to their favou, the opposite might just happen.

Biggest betting market is still USA, and I do expect late money to come in on Diaz, more than on Conor from the Irish Fans arriving in Vegas during the weekend of the fight.

Also it seems as Conor is not nearly doing as much media as before, whereas Diaz is doing much more, so that could also effect the lines.

I do understand your POV but in the end we obviously never know.

otherwise known as Guinness money as I like to call it

I most likely will be watching the fight, while drinking some of that good Guinness, I will be rooting for Conor.

I do think he can win this time, I just don't like the odds at all, so will just make a small fanbet on Conor. Value is def on Diaz here, but cant bring myself to bet against Conor.

Added 1.35u Camozzi now that he's +155, I do think he can decision Leites a lot, but Leites will win if it ends ITD usually

Looks like we were wrong about the Ponzi line move all the steam is on Cummings and he's -115 now. I do like the -115 but not going to bet against the steam when already on at -150

Going to a Rugby League match tomorrow so will miss the card live. Not a super important card anyway, obviously will not be missing 202

Here's what I ended up with

1.35u Ponzinibbio -150 (oops, steamed against us and probably should have hit the TKO line instead)
1.35u Camozzi +155
0.33u Moroz -260 (should be a huge size difference)
1u Bermudez DEC +156
0.66u Rodriguez UD +435
0.33u Ponzinibbio ITD +200

I'm only going small on tomorrow's card, and mostly dogs, have had very little time to film study for this one:

Moroz 1.33u @ 1.40
Steele 0.66u @ 2.75
Smith-Gigglioti under 1.5 rounds 0.66u @ 1.85
Cummings 0.66u @ 2.50
Jason 0.33u @ 3.12
Jason ITD 0.33u @ 3.75

Oh hi

Despite my earlier protestations, I ended up with a lot of pre-fight bets on this card. Hashtag #ActionJunkie.

UFN 92 Risk $2824.80

Yair Rodriguez wins inside distance (-120) vs Alex Caceres $60.00 for $50.00
Yair Rodriguez/Alex Caceres fight ends in round 3 (+575) $10.00 for $57.50

Rony Jason (+215) vs Dennis Bermudez $100.00 for $215.00
Rony Jason wins by submission (+500) $40.00 for $200.00
Rony Jason/Dennis Bermudez fight ends in round 3 (+700) $10.00 for $70.00

Chris Camozzi (+165) vs Thales Leites $200.00 for $330.00
Chris Camozzi wins in round 3 (+2300) $15.00 for $345.00
Chris Camozzi/Thales Leites fight ends in round 3 (+700) $10.00 for $70.00
Chris Camozzi wins by 3 round decision (+205) $50.00 for $102.50

Santiago Ponzinibbio (-140) vs Zak Cummings $140.00 for $100.00
Santiago Ponzinibbio (-150) vs Zak Cummings $150.00 for $100.00
Zak Cummings wins in round 3 (+1425) $10.00 for $142.50
Santiago Ponzinibbio/Zak Cummings fight ends in round 3 (+700) $10.00 for $70.00

Trevor Smith (+110) vs Joseph Gigliotti $100.00 for $110.00
Trevor Smith/Joseph Gigliotti fight ends in round 3 (+550) $10.00 for $55.00

Danielle Taylor (+240) vs Maryna Moroz $100.00 for $240.00
Danielle Taylor/Maryna Moroz fight ends in round 3 (+625) $10.00 for $62.50
Danielle Taylor wins by 3 round decision (+730) $50.00 for $365.00

Court McGee (-140) vs Dominique Steele $140.00 for $100.00
Court McGee wins in round 3 (+1075) $15.00 for $161.25
Court McGee/Dominique Steele fight ends in round 3 (+700) $10.00 for $70.00
Dominique Steele +3½ points (-150) $150.00 for $100.00
Dominique Steele scorecards = no action (+192) $100.00 for $192.00

Viktor Pesta (+100) vs Marcin Tybura $100.00 for $100.00
Viktor Pesta/Marcin Tybura fight ends in round 3 (+650) $10.00 for $65.00
Viktor Pesta wins by 3 round decision (+305) $35.00 for $106.75

Jason Novelli (+130) vs David Teymur $100.00 for $130.00
Jason Novelli/David Teymur fight ends in round 3 (+750) $10.00 for $75.00

Horacio Gutierrez (+210) vs Teruto Ishihara $200.00 for $420.00
Teruto Ishihara/Horacio Gutierrez Under 1½ (+130) $100.00 for $130.00
Teruto Ishihara wins in round 1 (+225) $25.00 for $56.25
Teruto Ishihara/Horacio Gutierrez fight ends in round 3 (+575) $10.00 for $57.50

Cub Swanson/Tatsuya Kawajiri Over 2½ (-162) $64.80 for $40.00
Cub Swanson wins in round 3 (+885) $20.00 for $177.00
Cub Swanson/Tatsuya Kawajiri fight ends in round 3 (+550) $10.00 for $55.00

Justin Ledet (-120) vs Chase Sherman $120.00 for $100.00
Justin Ledet wins by TKO/KO (+220) $35.00 for $77.00
Justin Ledet/Chase Sherman fight ends in round 3 (+600) $10.00 for $60.00

Fights to end in submission over 2½ (+114) $40.00 for $45.60
Fights to end in submission over 3½ (+349) $25.00 for $87.25
Fights to end in submission over 4½ (+1078) $15.00 for $161.70
Fights to end in submission over 5½ (+3425) $10.00 for $342.50
Fights to end in submission over 6½ (+16300) $5.00 for $815.00

Danielle Taylor/Maryna Moroz FOTN award winner (+1050) $10.00 for $105.00

Parlays:

Cub Swanson (-400) + Teruto Ishihara (-230) + Dennis Bermudez (-220) + Yair Rodriguez (-303) $100.00 for $246.97
Court McGee/Dominique Steele Over 2½ (-180) + Chris Camozzi/Thales Leites Over 2½ (-190) $100.00 for $137.43

Santiago Ponzinibbio wins by TKO/KO (+239) + Yair Rodriguez wins by TKO/KO (+150) $20.00 for $149.50
Teruto Ishihara wins by TKO/KO (+110) + Yair Rodriguez wins by TKO/KO (+150) $20.00 for $85.00
Justin Ledet wins by TKO/KO (+220) + Yair Rodriguez wins by TKO/KO (+150) $20.00 for $140.00
Teruto Ishihara wins by TKO/KO (+110) + Santiago Ponzinibbio wins by TKO/KO (+239) $20.00 for $122.38
Justin Ledet wins by TKO/KO (+220) + Santiago Ponzinibbio wins by TKO/KO (+239) $20.00 for $196.96
Justin Ledet wins by TKO/KO (+220) + Teruto Ishihara wins by TKO/KO (+110) $20.00 for $114.40

Zak Cummings wins in round 3 (+1425) + Chris Camozzi wins in round 3 (+1925) $10.00 for $3,078.13
Court McGee wins in round 3 (+1075) + Chris Camozzi wins in round 3 (+1925) $10.00 for $2,369.38
Cub Swanson wins in round 3 (+745) + Chris Camozzi wins in round 3 (+1925) $10.00 for $1,701.13
Court McGee wins in round 3 (+1075) + Zak Cummings wins in round 3 (+1425) $10.00 for $1,781.88
Cub Swanson wins in round 3 (+745) + Zak Cummings wins in round 3 (+1425) $10.00 for $1,278.63
Cub Swanson wins in round 3 (+745) + Court McGee wins in round 3 (+1075) $10.00 for $982.88

lmao this is gonna be fight of the night.

ahhhh nvm they are gassing.

btw, anyone else sync up with Joe Rogan's fight companion?

This is crazy so far.

LMAO WTF IS THIS MADNESS.

This is fun.

Man, Sherman has a chin. Really thought Ledet could finish him in round 3.

I'm on Cub in a parlay next, the over 2½ small as well as Cub wins in round 3 and fight ends in round 3.