Derrick "The Black Beast" Lewis is one of my favorite up and comers right now, even though he probably won't do much against the better guys in the division.

Probably -120. Actually fired a unit on Soriano just due to the quick turn around.

Did take Skelly on kountermove though. Figure he either dominates, and finishes early, or loses a close decision.

Chiesa out to -149 is reassuring for me, biggest bet in a while, I was wondering when the steam would arrive

Reem in to -373 starting to get tempting, skillset wise this isn't even close and Reem should have the better cardio of the two, Rothwell off TRT is carrying some unnecessary weight and Reem off Roids isn't and it's not like Rothwell's known for shooting explosive takedowns or something where Reem's smaller size will matter a lot

Anyone got any thoughts on Camozzi/Natal? Fight feels like a flip, i've always loved to bet against Camozzi but i'm tempted to bet on him this time at +145 because he's slightly bigger and neither guy is super skilled or anything

I'm really looking forward to this card for some reason, i'm excited about almost every fight which is odd considering the lack of name value in a lot of the fights.

hate that you cap it that low yoyo. Talked me out of a bet for now.

never played on Kountermove due to the high rake. Do you play there a lot? This is the best lineup I could muster

Derrick Lewis
$4500
Chas Skelly
$5300
Alistair Overeem
$5800
Michael Chiesa
$4600
Chris Beal
$4800

Gus for multiple units here, finally gonna get to cash in on the Rumble overhype.

Lol, let's hope we split the money, exactly what I had.. I generally talk myself into switching at last minute though.

Yeah I love playing on there. Unless you are playing the HU games I don't see how it could be more profitable than just betting vs the books, but the $25 games are a fun sweat... Probably made $500ish on it.

Don't trust my read on most of the fights for this card. Watched less tape for this card than any of the last 10 cards.

Oliviera Lentz pulled, sad, think it would have been an interesting scrap. Oliviera is hard to control on the ground, and Lentz bread and butter is wrestling so it would have been nice to see their exchange on the ground.

RE: Skelly's quick turnaround.

Chris Leben fought Simpson and Akiyama 14 days apart back in 2010 and won both, although it took a miracle triangle with 20 seconds left to beat Akiyama.

Seems like I remember him saying he was still peaked and felt strong for the second fight.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chris_Leben

Well that sucks, was both looking forward to the fight and had arbed to have a freeroll on Oliveira

damn was hoping to make some easy money on lentz fighting a sick opponent

God damnit. I thought Lentz was going to offer one of this years best bets. Oliveira was obviously not going to perform close to his max.

Chiesa up to -185. Looks like the smart money is finally coming in.

I was worried it would never come.

Regardless of result at least i'm 50 points ahead of current line. Hopefully Chiesa can singlehandedly lock in a winning card for me.

Alright guyssss I was looking forward to this card since a long time because Gegard is probably my fav fighter. So I wanted to watch the card live and bet a lot, but I am currently drunk and need some guidance. So far I wanna bet Camozzi, Iaquinta, TANK Scoggins, Mitrione and

+++ Chiesa because of Swoop, actually I wanna bet a lot I am sold, what do you guys think ?

+++ Overeem, I don't like betting +400 fav but I can't see how he lose that fight ??

+++ Obv Gegard, everybody seems to think it's an EV play, and I love him, but Jacare is so scary, anyway even if I don't bet big I will be so pumped if he wins.

So Im really thinking about firing big on Chiesa, let me hear your opinions !!

Chiesa and Gregard all day

HW can always lose and Overeem has shown he can lose even after nearly finishing fights. At -400 prob isn't worth the risk with far better options on the card

Well I liked it a heap at the -134ish average I got, I capped it at -200 for Chiesa and he's at -185ish now so it's still fine I guess although a lot of the value is gone. Same with Mousasi, I capped him at +160 or something and he's currently +201 from the +253 I got, I might be underrating Jacare slightly but it's probably fine.

I think I like Overeem too at -368, I think Rothwell connects and KO's him about 1 in 5 times but it's hard to see it happening more than 1 in 4 times so it's probably +EV

You can get around evens on a Chiesa+Overeem parlay if you don't want to fire the huge vig on Overeem as a fav and I think it hits a little bit over half the time

Kountermove looks nice any good reviews about it?

It's fun, probably not going to make a lot if money, but if you follow mma it is definitely +ev. Deposits are easy , and I've heard the cashouts are very well done too.

Alright I added Chiesa+Reem at a bit more than evens gogogo

So you're looking for dominant performances or quick finishes for more points in Kountermove? Didn't actually read the details just what scores. What's the ideal outcome for a fighter you pick, a quick finish or a 30-24 style beatdown? Is striking or wrestling/sub attempts scored more or is it balanced?

Chiesa -196 now

Money coming in on Rothwell and Mitrione as well as Soriano and Mousasi as well

looks like grinding MMA sng & mtts

hope a lot of money goes into mitrione so i can get Lewis at better price

why the mitrione steam though is he a good wrestler?