I agree with Rory and Silva being bigger threats to GSP than Hendricks/Condit/Kampmann. I genuinely hope he becomes a wrestling gatekeeper at prelims because that's what he's good at(well I dont want to see him fight at all but he is good and deserves to be in the ufc imo). There are so many more diversified and more exciting(exciting doesn't have to be bad, just look at Rory, Velasquez, Jones etc) wrestling based guys.

Exactly - even Sonnen who is basically a pure wrestler attempts to finish, Fitch doesn't even try to land or improve his position most of the time with the only notable exception being against Penn and that was because he thought (correctly) that he needed a 10-8 to not lose the fight. If Fitch fought every round like R3 against Penn, people wouldn't complain about him being boring, he only has himself to blame, and he IS the most boring fighter in the UFC bar none.

Also re: Moraes/Forte idk what you're talking about the fight being bad, Moraes brought it on the finale against Mutante and Forte/Sarafian was a good fight on TUF even if Forte got finished.

I can't wait to see Sarafian debut, he's the guy who should have won the show and he needs to face Mutante ASAP for the real title of TUF Brazil 1 winner.

Lot of guys I like off that show, Hugo Wolverine should be a boss at BW or even FLW (too small for FW), Rony has potential once he gets over UFC debut jitters hopefully this fight (he was good on the show, but the finale vs Pepey sucked because both guys were afraid to lose), Thiago Bodao Perpetuo was awesome on the show, Daniel Sarafian was a boss, Mutante is Belfort's protege and won it after Sarafian got injured, Moraes will be a gatekeeper to the mid level and Trinaldo has the potential to make a splash at LW and/or WW. Best season of TUF talent wise since at least season 5 and potentially season 1 tbh.

Fitch has that style of laying in someones full guard, his head on their chest and then pawing at their head to keep the ref from standing them up. He's the closest thing of a leach in human form, cling on to someone as tightly as possible and just hold them

It's probably because they choose fighters based on their skill level and in the USA they choose them on their personality.

In all seriousness there are 4 fighters that came off that season of TUF that theoretically may one day challenge for a title - Wolverine at BW, Sarafian at MW, Trinaldo at LW and Rony at FW. Potentially even Mutante at MW as well if he matures as a fighter - I think in two years time all of these guys plus Bodao will all still be in the UFC, 6 good fighters coming off one season of the show is pretty solid - Pepey and Moraes and Forte all have a chance to have a .50+ record in the UFC too. Anyone who hasn't season season 1 of TUF brazil really needs to watch it (PM me if you can't find a link)

Re: Moraes and Forte

You could be right that the fight is highly entertaining, but I still think you've got two guys with relatively lackluster striking, neither of which wants the fight to be standing trying to get the fight to the ground quickly. Where one guy is way better than the other. I could be wrong, and these guys throw caution to the wind fighting in front of their home crowd, potentially for their jobs.

You're right about the talent level on the show. But it's the first season of TUF in that area, and I think the skill level was comparable to that of the first couple seasons of TUF in the States, where as now they're looking for guys who will move the ratings needle, not necessarily guys who will be future UFC champs.

What will be more interesting is if they do a Comeback season of TUF, but they expand it to the entire world. Some of the guys that maybe didn't make the UFC, or that made it but were cut from the worldwide shows. They could even consider doing 4 teams instead of only two. North America, Brazil, Europe and Australia, Asia. That would be boss.

Well that's good except Tibau is my biggest play... yikes.

leebert, I don't think anyone would have a problem with you linking your write-ups. Back in the day we used to have a Performify and Humungus post a link to their write-ups for the events and everyone loved it. Their write-ups were gambling based and yours isn't but I don't think that makes too much of a difference.

Gl I guess, Trinaldo is one of my smaller plays, but I still definitely like him here at a + price, I think the fight is something like 55/45 Trinaldo if I had to handicap it.

Trinaldo in to +126 fwiw, every single line I bet on this card has moved far enough in my favour that I could arb it off to break even or profit, feeling really confident.

Added a unit on Erick Silva (spreadsheet ftw please!) and half unit on each of Texeira and Madadi

In order of bet size

5u - Maia, Nog
3.5u - Brandao, Bezerra
2.5u - Cane
1.1u - Madadi
1u - E. Silva
1u - Trinaldo
0.5u - Teixiera
0.45u - Prado

No bet: Silva/Bonnar, Moraes/Forte

Honestly expecting to go 7/10+ a lot here and i'd be surprised if I get less than 6.

Edit: Also added 0.5u on U 7m 30sec for Nog/Herman.

Tailing these. Let's goooo Swoop

Good luck. I feel like this is an above average card for betting.

E. Silva is ChrisV's pick that i'm tailing fwiw, I really want him to win, his database seems to like Silva though so hopefully it can hold.

Bellator 76 is on atm and my guy Akop Stepanyan is up in a few fights. Come on you big Armenian bastard.

Late money is coming down on him, I got +150 and you can't do better than +135 now. If you're sitting on the fence about betting him, ask yourself this: would you like to see this guy get beaten up?



If, like me, the answer is "yes", then follow me to victory.

in for a unit on the tail. gl us

on it. parlayed him with alverez.

I'm lost on the time zones how long from now until the facebook prelims start?

i'm guessing 40 mins? watching bellator now, hopefully chrisv's database has it right again

Interviewer at bellator is a joe rogan lookalike.

looking at their records and the prelim video im liking stepanyan more and more. seems like a typical up and comer vs past his prime former champ type fight

Well that went badly. Sick non-tap for ages though our guy had some heart even if it was probably risky/stupid. A good reminder to myself on why I don't bet on unknown Bellator fighters. Ah well. As long as Erick Silva wins your database is forgiven :P

Yeah, he really didn't want to tap.

Thought he'd never stop it, the referee....

hey do u guys know if ufc tomorrow is on at the regular time? i noticed the weigh ins today were a bit early.

One of my guilty pleasures. Never seems to work out though, lol. Still have a live parlay that Alvarez needs to complete.

Im guessing the UFC prelims start around 5pm est tomorrow judging by the weigh in time today..

GO AMERICAN PSYCHO!!

Eddie Alvarez. Badman.

Just watched the weigh-in videos after getting in from a night out.

Trinaldo looks massive, probably going to be bigger than Tibau come fight night and doesn't look like he struggled with the cut at all. That could be a very interesting fight indeed.

Also, is it just me or did Big Nog look pretty soft in the middle. Maybe it's just me but I don't think he looks good at all. Definitely doesn't look like he's ready to fight three hard rounds, (doubtful the fight lasts that long.)

And in regards to weigh ins, how the hell does Anderson look so similar when weighing in at 205 and 185. Where the hell is that extra 20 pounds? They showed a comparison of him side by side himself, from the Sonnen fight and today on MMAMania I think it was. Barely a difference. Crazy. Bonnar is a big boy though. Might post some last minute thoughts tomorrow.

Good luck to everyone's bets.