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Originally Posted by SwoopAE
I quite like Werdum by decision +170. He won't win by KO, so it'll be sub or dec, and if Nelson wins it'll be KO most likely, I just don't see him outpointing Werdum very often. I've bet Werdum straight up instead, but I quite like the decision line.
Pierce by decision... meh, but it's +400 so whatever. I still think Kos is going to either catch him standing or 30-27 him but you never know. Kos has only ever really lost to top guys and on short notice against Paulo Thiago, i'm not convinced Pierce is a top guy yet. He very well could be, but then again i'm not fully sold on Hendricks being a legit top-3 WW yet either based off his fitch knockout, and a lot of Pierce's supporters point to his close fight with Hendricks as evidence for why he can beat Kos.
I still maintain Kos could have a (very small) chance against GSP if he spammed takedowns, his wrestling is really, really amazing when he wants to wrestle. Kos needs to win this fight to remain at all relevant to the WW title picture, it's MW or gatekeeper if he loses this one, I just feel like he gets the job done this time.
On the Edwin Figueroa/Bruce Leeroy fight... does Figueroa have what it takes to get it to the ground and tap him? I haven't seen many of his fights, it seems that standing with the new Bruce Leeroy is a bad idea, but he's pretty awful on the ground from memory. I haven't touched that fight at all yet. I put a few bucks on Thompson for the rail (26 to win 10) and will use him in some parlays, pretty much done betting now until I can check parlay odds at pinnacle. All favourites this card except my half unit on Condit, rare for me as i'm usually mixing in a lot of underdogs but I see most of 143 going just the way Joe Silva wants it to in order to set up his future money fights (with the possible exception of Condit over Diaz to face GSP).
Caceres groundgame is very dynamic, he throws up a lot of submissions(and is how I see him winning only really) but his defensive submission game sucks, he gets easily rnc like a part of his fights has ended in. He hanged in there with Jimmy Hettes for a while who's supposed to be a wonderkid in bjj.
Caceres is a outside fighter and Figueroa a inside fighter, it all depends if Figuerioa can close the distance and outstrike Caceres there, which is what most of the mma predictors think he can. He's no slouch on in the standup, starting boxing at 6 and kickboxing at 14 years old. I know Caceres looked very good in his last fight, but you have to remember that he fought a guy who lost 5 of his 6 latest fights and that he was playing Caceres distance game.
Kos won't ever get a title shot again, he simply can't beat GSP, evident from the two last fights. You make it sound like he can just spam takedowns and get them succesfully, it doesn't work like that. First of all, GSP is faster than him, second of all, vs a guy like GSP you have to set them up and can't just bullrush him like you can with Daley who has weaker TDD.