bah, seems like you guys have talked me down from the ledge

No point in arguing when you pretty much all aggree, I must be overestimating Nick/underestimating Condit.

I don't really like Vitor as much as u guys tbh. I mean -250 is pretty low return, and we didn't really see much of his form vs. rumble, he was gasping for breath after that one round for like 10min - and after seeing vintage Wandy knee Cung Le, I think he can still KO anyone.

I really like Ellenberger tho - also at -250.

The fight is just too risky, that's all, in the BJ Penn fight we all knew Penn's cardio was a big issue and would let him down, but in this fight, Diaz won't have that big of a advantage.

Yes, like I said, Wands biggest chance is to stay alive for the first round and try to outpoint Vitor in 2nd and third, or possibly 4th and 5th if it's a main event. The thing is, when wand does his rush, he opens himself up so much(Their last fight, his fight with Leben etc). He's gotten better though and is why he paced himself against Cung Lee and I can definitiely see a way for him to outpoint belfort or possibly late round TKO him when Vitors condition starts getting worse. However, the fact still remains, he's getting tagged in the first round and when you get tagged by Vitor, you're not making it out alive.

so many potentially amazing bets coming up over the next few cards. 143 144 and FX1 all have some fight i expect there to be value in

Barry over Morecraft if he's a dog or very slight favourite (yes I know he always finds a way to lose and I had $ on Crocop and Struve when he was favoured in both fights, but he's got this, and Morecraft is heading to the unemployment line)

Evans over Davis (got 2 units on Evans so far likely more by fight day)
Chael over Munoz (not the best odds wise but 2.5 units on Chael - I might stay away in hindsight but he should beastmode it so whatever)

Dunham over Lentz if he's -300 or better which I expect him to be (prob -210ish if I had to guess?)

Charles Oliveira if he isn't -300 or better

Potentially Bisping but i'm starting to lean towards a no bet on this one

Ed Herman over Starks unless he's -300 or worse

Matt Brown over Chris Cope unless he's -300 or worse (and maybe -350 even)

Dustin Poirer is a lock at anything under -450 or so

Barao at anything -150 or better against Jorgensen (I expect it to be -120ish and he could be a dog potentially even but I doubt it)

Kos over Pierce at up to -300ish maybe even -350

Potentially Werdum over Nelson if the odds don't get out of control

Justin Edwards if the price is right

Miocic over De Fries (and I had De Fries over Broughton)

Struve over Herman if he's a +125 or better which i think he will be

Then in Japan for 144, Frankie (got 1 unit already), Sot over Gomi especially if he isn't -150 or worse, Bart over Hioki if he's a reasonable dog which he will be, Kongo over Hunt depending on odds, Lee over Yamamoto if he's a significant enough dog which he prob will be even though he's supposed to be cannon fodder for Yamamoto, Okami over Boetsch if he isn't -300 or worse, then probably Noke over Hamman at the FX 2 card.

Going to be an interesting couple months, I have a feeling a lot of units are going into play. I'm loving how much MMA is on these days even compared to a year ago it's amazing as a fan and as a sports bettor.

Anyone care to speculate on the lines of any of the fights I listed that aren't out yet? I've got estimates of where I think they open in my head and expect value, anyone care to handicap some upcoming cards at likely opening prices? Particularly interested in where you all think Barry/Morecraft opens as that's one of the fights i'm most interested in this weekend strangely enough.

@Pierce Why would you bet on Lauzon over Pettis? Pettis will win that fight without much trouble. Lauzon basically just subs fighters with grappling deficiencies and loses to everyone else. Basically zero chance he outstrikes Pettis and he isn't going to just take him down and grapple with him.

@Swoop Koscheck is a terrible bet against Pierce at -300. Pierce has a great chance to beat Kos outright. Pierce has better technical striking so if he can keep it on the feet (and his wrestling is very good) then he should beat Koscheck.

I don't see a way Wand can beat Belfort without takedowns (and we last saw those against Bisping). Where does he have an edge besides maybe cardio, which is questionable because Belfort just keeps finishing people/getting finished in round 1? Most likely cardio won't even come into play with Belfort's power + Wand's now-weak chin.

Also, Ellenberger all day vs Sanchez. Once again, I see no real edge for Sanchez in this fight. Ellenberger is a better striker with power and a better wrestler.

I don't either see a reason why you would bet on Lauzon over Pettis. Pretty much mo said about koscheck as well. Also, I'm picking Herman over Struve easily, he's getting TKO'ed/KO'd.

Per Dana White's twitter, Munoz is out injured. Now Sonnen vs Bisping for next title shot. Cmoooon Sonnen -200....

Lol, I hope Bisping wins so I can bet my livelihood on AS.

Very interrested in the line on this - After seeing Chael dispose of Brian Stann I don't see Bisping having much of a chance here. The line will prolly reflect it tho..

chael should be a lot more than -200. 250-300 imo. and there's still value on -300

pillowfist bisping have close to no shot at winning this. he needs for sonnen to gas or knock him out. hes going to get taken down repeatedly and his subs from bottom is no good.

sick

had 1.5 on sonnen @ -260 lame

Hey I can dream can't I?

If Sonnen comes in at -200 I'm cashing out my 401k

lol my dreams are dashed...-450.

still might do it

-450 seems about right. Sonnen could break an arm by slamming bisping.

so whack ****in bs

maia vs. weidman line? speculations?

Maia -200?

Looks like maia is getting chris wiedman.

edit: beat me to it sir.

Am i being stupid for thinking weidman can hold his own from the top against Maia? I don't expect him to outgrapple maia obviously, but enough so that hes not in major danger.

Standing i see Weidman brutalizing in the clinch, but Maias striking is getting a lot better than it used to be.

Maybe I'm way off on -200 maia.-130 -150? (oh how embarrassing when it comes out -350 maia)

Chris Weidman at + money is going to be MIGHTY tempting...dude is a truly elite talent.

I need to go find Maia's fight vs Munoz since I wasn't able to watch that one. Heard his striking looked quite sharp though. He will probably have an edge on the feet vs Weidman? No idea how this fight plays out.

I think this is a good matchup for wiedman as far as being thrown into the deep end. I don't see this fight ending on the feet from either fighter a large percentage of the time. The ground is more than likely where this fight will be ended and mainly from maia's side. From what I remember the last couple of weidman's fight he has somewhat gassed in the latter rounds.

These are my off the top of the head thoughts for this matchup. Overall very very excited for these next 4 weeks of amazing cards.

Another topic, here is dana white's response to the recent espn piece on the UFC.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?feature...&v=O7neKshmjzI

I would have expected Maia to be favored as well but old bodog has him at +175.

can anyone find footage of Chris Weidman vs Alessio Sakara?

Wow maia is a dog. Anyone watched all of Chris Weidman's fights? I can't say that I have but i'm surprised Maia is a dog to a prospect.