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NBA All Star Break NBA All Star Break

02-16-2024 , 01:47 AM
From the NBA Trade deadline through the All star break is a pretty crazy time to say the least. I'm starting to wonder if those two weeks might be better spent analyzing data from the first half of the season and getting ready for the stretch run after the break. As an example: If you've been folllowing the results of my rebounding props model, things had been running pretty consistent at around 6 to 8%. But then last week, we surrendered 14 units in theoretical bets.

So here's my question: Is that just the inevibility of variance? Or -
Are the games between the trade deadline and all star break too unpredictable to maintain an edge?

Last edited by P_Nitti; 02-16-2024 at 01:55 AM.
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02-16-2024 , 10:34 PM
Some would say it’s better. Obviously lineups have been less predictable, but better edges if you can predict them.
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02-17-2024 , 02:07 PM
Small sample size I realize (only 75 bets).
The other side of the coin... Managed to beat the closing line on 69% of those bets, so you would assume we're +$EV on them.

Just the joys of variance??
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