Two Plus Two Publishing LLC Two Plus Two Publishing LLC
 

Go Back   Two Plus Two Poker Forums > >

Notices

Sports Betting Discussions related to wagering on sporting events.

Reply
 
Thread Tools Display Modes
Old 08-16-2017, 06:30 PM   #226
isildur99
banned
 
Join Date: Aug 2017
Posts: 46
Re: MLB 2017 regular season picks, discussion etc.

anyone else liking them astros tonight?
isildur99 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 08-17-2017, 11:27 AM   #227
ARCANGEL0
veteran
 
Join Date: Jul 2016
Posts: 2,435
Re: MLB 2017 regular season picks, discussion etc.

STRAIGHT BET
[972] MIN GM#2 +110
( ACTION )

glgl
ARCANGEL0 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 08-18-2017, 12:42 PM   #228
ARCANGEL0
veteran
 
Join Date: Jul 2016
Posts: 2,435
Re: MLB 2017 regular season picks, discussion etc.

we won!

[1902] 1H PIT +110
( C MARTINEZ -R / T WILLIAMS -R )

[902] PIT +110
( ACTION )

glgl
ARCANGEL0 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 08-28-2017, 09:51 AM   #229
The Nemesis
journeyman
 
Join Date: Mar 2012
Location: Hamsterdam
Posts: 333
Re: MLB 2017 regular season picks, discussion etc.

one of my online sites has a promotional bet and im trying to figure out if there is value. im new to both sports betting and baseball. the bet is hunter pence to score 2 hits/walks san fran vs san diego. pays 3.0.

doing some googling i find both teams are similarly ranked. careers stats has pences AB is around 3.8. OBS is 3.06.

so im trying to put all this together to find a true implied probability based on numbers alone. but dont have the math skill. i know that there is more to predicting outcomes than just numbers, but if the payout is well above the probability, i figure that the bet is likely to be +ev.

so we have a player with:
3.8 AB
3.06 OBS
paying 3.0
how do i find a rough probability of 2+ hits/walks?
The Nemesis is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 09-19-2017, 07:37 PM   #230
TheStuntman
Pooh-Bah
 
TheStuntman's Avatar
 
Join Date: Oct 2009
Posts: 5,297
Re: MLB 2017 regular season picks, discussion etc.

Am I nuts? Why are the Angels favored so heavily today? LAA-126?? Thinking about straight-up CLE.
TheStuntman is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 09-19-2017, 09:55 PM   #231
GarySanders
newbie
 
Join Date: Feb 2017
Posts: 48
Re: MLB 2017 regular season picks, discussion etc.

Rockies -118

$118,000 to win $100,000
GarySanders is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 09-19-2017, 09:57 PM   #232
GarySanders
newbie
 
Join Date: Feb 2017
Posts: 48
Re: MLB 2017 regular season picks, discussion etc.

Mariners -145

$290,000 to win $200,000
GarySanders is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 09-19-2017, 09:58 PM   #233
GarySanders
newbie
 
Join Date: Feb 2017
Posts: 48
Re: MLB 2017 regular season picks, discussion etc.

Padres +164

$100,000 to win $164,000
GarySanders is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 09-20-2017, 11:21 AM   #234
ARCANGEL0
veteran
 
Join Date: Jul 2016
Posts: 2,435
Re: MLB 2017 regular season picks, discussion etc.

padres today too!

glgl
ARCANGEL0 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 09-26-2017, 01:42 PM   #235
GarySanders
newbie
 
Join Date: Feb 2017
Posts: 48
Re: MLB 2017 regular season picks, discussion etc.

Yankees -171

risking $17.10 to win $10.00
GarySanders is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 09-26-2017, 01:44 PM   #236
GarySanders
newbie
 
Join Date: Feb 2017
Posts: 48
Re: MLB 2017 regular season picks, discussion etc.

Royals -170

$680,000 to win $400,000
GarySanders is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 09-28-2017, 02:53 PM   #237
ARCANGEL0
veteran
 
Join Date: Jul 2016
Posts: 2,435
Re: MLB 2017 regular season picks, discussion etc.

Angels broke my heart (wallet) yesterday

1st 5 Texas 2 units
CWS 1 unit
1st 5 CWS 1 unit

glgl
ARCANGEL0 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 10-03-2017, 12:09 PM   #238
rainmaker1855
adept
 
rainmaker1855's Avatar
 
Join Date: Sep 2015
Location: Chicago
Posts: 818
Re: MLB 2017 regular season picks, discussion etc.

who does everyone like in the WC round? I'm leaning Yanks RL -1.5
rainmaker1855 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 10-03-2017, 01:01 PM   #239
ARCANGEL0
veteran
 
Join Date: Jul 2016
Posts: 2,435
Re: MLB 2017 regular season picks, discussion etc.

that's what i thought too! Not a for sure but it looks ok

glgl
ARCANGEL0 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 10-04-2017, 09:45 AM   #240
rainmaker1855
adept
 
rainmaker1855's Avatar
 
Join Date: Sep 2015
Location: Chicago
Posts: 818
Re: MLB 2017 regular season picks, discussion etc.

easy money last night (except for a brief scare in the top of the 1st).

I think the value tonight would be COL (favorite) laying runs in a RL play on alternative lines. I'll take COL -1.5 for +245. #riskyplays
rainmaker1855 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 10-04-2017, 11:33 AM   #241
ARCANGEL0
veteran
 
Join Date: Jul 2016
Posts: 2,435
Re: MLB 2017 regular season picks, discussion etc.

yeah i want col to win the world series since angels are out

thought yesterday was gonna be close

glgl
ARCANGEL0 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 10-05-2017, 11:29 AM   #242
fansrajoke
adept
 
fansrajoke's Avatar
 
Join Date: Mar 2015
Location: "Oh Lord, I'm stuck in Lodi again."
Posts: 943
Re: MLB 2017 regular season picks, discussion etc.

Sale +120
Bauer -138
fansrajoke is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 10-05-2017, 01:03 PM   #243
rainmaker1855
adept
 
rainmaker1855's Avatar
 
Join Date: Sep 2015
Location: Chicago
Posts: 818
Re: MLB 2017 regular season picks, discussion etc.

anybody have future plays in mind? Yanks at 9-1 seem like there might be a little value there.

gonna lay off the first game today but I like CLE for the later game.
rainmaker1855 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 10-05-2017, 02:02 PM   #244
fansrajoke
adept
 
fansrajoke's Avatar
 
Join Date: Mar 2015
Location: "Oh Lord, I'm stuck in Lodi again."
Posts: 943
Re: MLB 2017 regular season picks, discussion etc.

I don't do future bet but yanks 9-1 is a sucky bet imo. Cleveland will finish them.
fansrajoke is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 10-06-2017, 09:49 AM   #245
fansrajoke
adept
 
fansrajoke's Avatar
 
Join Date: Mar 2015
Location: "Oh Lord, I'm stuck in Lodi again."
Posts: 943
Re: MLB 2017 regular season picks, discussion etc.

Astros -180 the price is right.
fansrajoke is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 10-08-2017, 01:32 AM   #246
fansrajoke
adept
 
fansrajoke's Avatar
 
Join Date: Mar 2015
Location: "Oh Lord, I'm stuck in Lodi again."
Posts: 943
Re: MLB 2017 regular season picks, discussion etc.

No love for mlb? Lol

Red Sox +125
Believeland -115
fansrajoke is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 10-08-2017, 04:24 PM   #247
fansrajoke
adept
 
fansrajoke's Avatar
 
Join Date: Mar 2015
Location: "Oh Lord, I'm stuck in Lodi again."
Posts: 943
Re: MLB 2017 regular season picks, discussion etc.

Feeling like Indians vs Dodgers in the final. Still have a little hope for Red Sox though.
fansrajoke is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 10-12-2017, 11:08 AM   #248
FrankyRizzo
adept
 
Join Date: Sep 2011
Location: NJ
Posts: 882
Re: MLB 2017 regular season picks, discussion etc.

i took yankees ml last night for 2 units and i havent watched mlb once this year
FrankyRizzo is online now   Reply With Quote
Old 10-12-2017, 12:27 PM   #249
fansrajoke
adept
 
fansrajoke's Avatar
 
Join Date: Mar 2015
Location: "Oh Lord, I'm stuck in Lodi again."
Posts: 943
Re: MLB 2017 regular season picks, discussion etc.

So much for 22 wins in a row lol payback's a *****. It's just perfect.
fansrajoke is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 10-13-2017, 09:42 AM   #250
rainmaker1855
adept
 
rainmaker1855's Avatar
 
Join Date: Sep 2015
Location: Chicago
Posts: 818
Re: MLB 2017 regular season picks, discussion etc.

wow what a game last night - had the Cubs (homer pick) but what a great show to watch either way. I wouldnt take a side on Saturday given how deep the team went into the night and having to travel across the coast to play the best pitcher in the MLB < 48 hours later, but Lackey can deal against these guys. that said, still looks like it's the Doyers year to get to the big show.
rainmaker1855 is offline   Reply With Quote

Reply
      

Thread Tools
Display Modes

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

BB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is Off


Forum Jump


All times are GMT -4. The time now is 09:39 AM.


Powered by vBulletin®
Copyright ©2000 - 2017, Jelsoft Enterprises Ltd.
Copyright © 2008-2010, Two Plus Two Interactive
 
 
Poker Players - Streaming Live Online