MLB 2017 regular season picks, discussion etc.
Join Date: Aug 2017
Posts: 46
anyone else liking them astros tonight?
Join Date: Jul 2016
Posts: 2,799
STRAIGHT BET
[972] MIN GM#2 +110
( ACTION )
glgl
Join Date: Jul 2016
Posts: 2,799
we won!
[1902] 1H PIT +110
( C MARTINEZ -R / T WILLIAMS -R )
[902] PIT +110
( ACTION )
glgl
Join Date: Mar 2012
Posts: 338
one of my online sites has a promotional bet and im trying to figure out if there is value. im new to both sports betting and baseball. the bet is hunter pence to score 2 hits/walks san fran vs san diego. pays 3.0.
doing some googling i find both teams are similarly ranked. careers stats has pences AB is around 3.8. OBS is 3.06.
so im trying to put all this together to find a true implied probability based on numbers alone. but dont have the math skill. i know that there is more to predicting outcomes than just numbers, but if the payout is well above the probability, i figure that the bet is likely to be +ev.
so we have a player with:
3.8 AB
3.06 OBS
paying 3.0
how do i find a rough probability of 2+ hits/walks?
Join Date: Oct 2009
Posts: 5,390
Am I nuts? Why are the Angels favored so heavily today? LAA-126?? Thinking about straight-up CLE.
Join Date: Feb 2017
Posts: 50
Rockies -118
$118,000 to win $100,000
Join Date: Feb 2017
Posts: 50
Mariners -145
$290,000 to win $200,000
Join Date: Feb 2017
Posts: 50
Padres +164
$100,000 to win $164,000
Join Date: Jul 2016
Posts: 2,799
Join Date: Feb 2017
Posts: 50
Yankees -171
risking $17.10 to win $10.00
Join Date: Feb 2017
Posts: 50
Royals -170
$680,000 to win $400,000
Join Date: Jul 2016
Posts: 2,799
Angels broke my heart (wallet) yesterday
1st 5 Texas 2 units
CWS 1 unit
1st 5 CWS 1 unit
glgl
Join Date: Sep 2015
Posts: 1,031
who does everyone like in the WC round? I'm leaning Yanks RL -1.5
Join Date: Jul 2016
Posts: 2,799
that's what i thought too! Not a for sure but it looks ok
glgl
Join Date: Sep 2015
Posts: 1,031
easy money last night (except for a brief scare in the top of the 1st).
I think the value tonight would be COL (favorite) laying runs in a RL play on alternative lines. I'll take COL -1.5 for +245. #riskyplays
Join Date: Jul 2016
Posts: 2,799
yeah i want col to win the world series since angels are out
thought yesterday was gonna be close
glgl
Join Date: Mar 2015
Posts: 1,182
Join Date: Sep 2015
Posts: 1,031
anybody have future plays in mind? Yanks at 9-1 seem like there might be a little value there.
gonna lay off the first game today but I like CLE for the later game.
Join Date: Mar 2015
Posts: 1,182
I don't do future bet but yanks 9-1 is a sucky bet imo. Cleveland will finish them.
Join Date: Mar 2015
Posts: 1,182
Astros -180 the price is right.
Join Date: Mar 2015
Posts: 1,182
No love for mlb? Lol
Red Sox +125
Believeland -115
Join Date: Mar 2015
Posts: 1,182
Feeling like Indians vs Dodgers in the final. Still have a little hope for Red Sox though.
Join Date: Sep 2011
Posts: 971
i took yankees ml last night for 2 units and i havent watched mlb once this year
Join Date: Mar 2015
Posts: 1,182
So much for 22 wins in a row lol payback's a *****. It's just perfect.
Join Date: Sep 2015
Posts: 1,031
wow what a game last night - had the Cubs (homer pick) but what a great show to watch either way. I wouldnt take a side on Saturday given how deep the team went into the night and having to travel across the coast to play the best pitcher in the MLB < 48 hours later, but Lackey can deal against these guys. that said, still looks like it's the Doyers year to get to the big show.