anyone else liking them astros tonight?

STRAIGHT BET
[972] MIN GM#2 +110
( ACTION )

glgl

we won!

[1902] 1H PIT +110
( C MARTINEZ -R / T WILLIAMS -R )

[902] PIT +110
( ACTION )

glgl

one of my online sites has a promotional bet and im trying to figure out if there is value. im new to both sports betting and baseball. the bet is hunter pence to score 2 hits/walks san fran vs san diego. pays 3.0.

doing some googling i find both teams are similarly ranked. careers stats has pences AB is around 3.8. OBS is 3.06.

so im trying to put all this together to find a true implied probability based on numbers alone. but dont have the math skill. i know that there is more to predicting outcomes than just numbers, but if the payout is well above the probability, i figure that the bet is likely to be +ev.

so we have a player with:
3.8 AB
3.06 OBS
paying 3.0
how do i find a rough probability of 2+ hits/walks?

Am I nuts? Why are the Angels favored so heavily today? LAA-126?? Thinking about straight-up CLE.

Rockies -118

$118,000 to win $100,000

Mariners -145

$290,000 to win $200,000

Padres +164

$100,000 to win $164,000

padres today too!

glgl

Yankees -171

risking $17.10 to win $10.00

Royals -170

$680,000 to win $400,000

Angels broke my heart (wallet) yesterday

1st 5 Texas 2 units
CWS 1 unit
1st 5 CWS 1 unit

glgl

who does everyone like in the WC round? I'm leaning Yanks RL -1.5

that's what i thought too! Not a for sure but it looks ok

glgl

easy money last night (except for a brief scare in the top of the 1st).

I think the value tonight would be COL (favorite) laying runs in a RL play on alternative lines. I'll take COL -1.5 for +245. #riskyplays

yeah i want col to win the world series since angels are out

thought yesterday was gonna be close

glgl

Sale +120
Bauer -138

anybody have future plays in mind? Yanks at 9-1 seem like there might be a little value there.

gonna lay off the first game today but I like CLE for the later game.

I don't do future bet but yanks 9-1 is a sucky bet imo. Cleveland will finish them.

Astros -180 the price is right.

No love for mlb? Lol

Red Sox +125
Believeland -115

Feeling like Indians vs Dodgers in the final. Still have a little hope for Red Sox though.

i took yankees ml last night for 2 units and i havent watched mlb once this year

So much for 22 wins in a row lol payback's a *****. It's just perfect.

wow what a game last night - had the Cubs (homer pick) but what a great show to watch either way. I wouldnt take a side on Saturday given how deep the team went into the night and having to travel across the coast to play the best pitcher in the MLB < 48 hours later, but Lackey can deal against these guys. that said, still looks like it's the Doyers year to get to the big show.