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Old 08-16-2017, 06:30 PM   #226
isildur99
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Re: MLB 2017 regular season picks, discussion etc.

anyone else liking them astros tonight?
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Old 08-17-2017, 11:27 AM   #227
ARCANGEL0
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Re: MLB 2017 regular season picks, discussion etc.

STRAIGHT BET
[972] MIN GM#2 +110
( ACTION )

glgl
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Old 08-18-2017, 12:42 PM   #228
ARCANGEL0
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Re: MLB 2017 regular season picks, discussion etc.

we won!

[1902] 1H PIT +110
( C MARTINEZ -R / T WILLIAMS -R )

[902] PIT +110
( ACTION )

glgl
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Old 08-28-2017, 09:51 AM   #229
The Nemesis
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Re: MLB 2017 regular season picks, discussion etc.

one of my online sites has a promotional bet and im trying to figure out if there is value. im new to both sports betting and baseball. the bet is hunter pence to score 2 hits/walks san fran vs san diego. pays 3.0.

doing some googling i find both teams are similarly ranked. careers stats has pences AB is around 3.8. OBS is 3.06.

so im trying to put all this together to find a true implied probability based on numbers alone. but dont have the math skill. i know that there is more to predicting outcomes than just numbers, but if the payout is well above the probability, i figure that the bet is likely to be +ev.

so we have a player with:
3.8 AB
3.06 OBS
paying 3.0
how do i find a rough probability of 2+ hits/walks?
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Old 09-19-2017, 07:37 PM   #230
TheStuntman
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Re: MLB 2017 regular season picks, discussion etc.

Am I nuts? Why are the Angels favored so heavily today? LAA-126?? Thinking about straight-up CLE.
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Old 09-19-2017, 09:55 PM   #231
GarySanders
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Re: MLB 2017 regular season picks, discussion etc.

Rockies -118

$118,000 to win $100,000
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Old 09-19-2017, 09:57 PM   #232
GarySanders
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Re: MLB 2017 regular season picks, discussion etc.

Mariners -145

$290,000 to win $200,000
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Old 09-19-2017, 09:58 PM   #233
GarySanders
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Re: MLB 2017 regular season picks, discussion etc.

Padres +164

$100,000 to win $164,000
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Old Yesterday, 11:21 AM   #234
ARCANGEL0
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Re: MLB 2017 regular season picks, discussion etc.

padres today too!

glgl
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