Hey guys,

A bit of what I do is scout some prices among the very soft bookmakers which I'm fortunate to have access to where I live, and get some arbs down. The BBL (big bash league) in Australia is pretty decent atm for exploiting. I came across a spot as I was doing this and never really bothered with middles however I'd like to know which is the better one to take in this spot (I guess it all comes down to a bell curve where x amount of 6's will be scored in the game, which I have no clue about but mathematically it could be estimated given the bookmaker lines - this is what I'd like to kindly have validated if there are no cricketers with game knowledge here).


Spot 1: Bookie 1 vs Bookie 2 - 1.98 vs 2.2 up with a max bet of 2.3k on the 1.98 market. The lines respectively are under 11.5 6's scored, and; 12 and over scored. Therefore profit in this spot is $184 if fully exploited.


Spot 2: Bookie 1 vs Bookie 2

1.79 vs 2.2 with a max bet of 2.6k on the 1.79 market, (2.2 market covers both to balance). The lines respectively are under 12.5 6's scored, and 12 and over scored. - ?

The league only runs for a month and a half every year which could definitely dictate taking the less variance line but you can expect to find these spots often enough during the period it runs I guess Assume 50 games over the league with 2 exploitation spots in every 3 games.

Could someone please help calculate EV of spot 2 based on either game knowledge (the match is Sixers vs Thunder) or estimated probability using a bell curve where total 12 6's is the line? With comments on which decision would be worth while? Thanks

I actually underestimated the spot 2 profit calc and might be able to say that it's obvious.. Spot 2 cost $60 to create but boasts a profit of $4,291 if it wins.. which means we need to win only 1.4% of the time to break even. Pretty sure that 12 6's will occur more than 1.4% of the time if the line is based around that. If anyone's got the numbers to base an estimate of the EV though that'd be nice.

You're asking the wrong questions.

You're opening the wrong doors

Where do you live?

From my experience I'm middling, I generally assume a uniform distribution for totals/scores/whatever's around the median.

For example in NBA the distribution for total game points is quite beautiful, a nice bell shaped curve. I don't think you lose too much information by assuming that points within say 0.1 to 0.2 standard deviations from the mean are all equally likely and thus assume a uniform distribution.

For middle bets that are taken from standard bookies lines (I.e. Prices are close to $2.) the middle you are hoping to hit should be the median and modal score.

for sixes in 2020 and odi, where the two teams are reasonably close to even $$ I generally assume the chance of say 12 6's occurring is 1/12 abd 13 6's 1/13 and so forth.

If one team is a decent favourite (Aus v Sri this Friday) then I will usually decreases those probabilities slightly. Because typically the team batting second won't score too many more sixes than the team batting first.

A certain bookie in Australia used to leave the boundary markets up post coin toss. That was fun!!! Weak team bats first take unders on boundary and vice versa.

Which bookie is taking bets of that size?

I do cricket betting as well, but mainly 2 way prop betting. How is your model working out so far on sixes?