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Old 08-01-2017, 04:34 AM   #101
The Don
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Re: Mayweather v. McGregor

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Originally Posted by RhodyGuy View Post
You are failing to account for the enormous amount of recreational/MMA fans money coming in on McGregor. There is no such thing as "free money" however as has been mentioned several times there the price on Mayweather is tighter against an inexperienced boxer than it has been when he was taking on the best boxers in the world. Mayweather connected on 49% of his jabs vs Pacquiao to the latters 24%. This match should read closer to 65% vs 15% with each round being scored in the 10-8 range.

The poker rooms are filled with these types using highly analytical reasoning for their McGregor pick such as "McGregor is crazy!", "He's a maniac", and "He's a bad man!" MMA fans do not understand how boxing's scoring system works (yes I recognize some boxing judges don't either but that is another story).
McGregor is totally ineffective with his right, even vs. MMA-level competition. I agree that in terms of front hand action, he's gonna get toasted. But there is at least one example of an 'unbeatable' guy getting beaten with a single-handed counter strategy (Max Schmeling vs. Joe Louis 1).

I also agree that there will be a lot of casual money on McGregor, but is it really the casual fans chomping at the bit to bet down the +700 Pinnacle opener?

My personal opinion is that the line is about right where it is. We'll see who is closer to the truth on fight night.
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Old 08-01-2017, 10:23 AM   #102
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Re: Mayweather v. McGregor

another caveat we are all aware of: it IS boxing; and if there is a sport where head scratching outcomes occur on the regular (esp in big fights) it's definitely inside the ring.

still though, confident in my side and either way hopeful for something entertaining
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Old 08-01-2017, 10:58 PM   #103
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Re: Mayweather v. McGregor

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ffs you guys...

so you guys are claiming that you're either sharper than the syndicates and books and other extremely sharp money coming in... or that these guys simply dont have enough money (HUGE LOL) to move the line to say -2000 if those were the true odds?

Or probably the most likely explanation is youre not sharper than the books or the syndicates or the other sharp money and that they know something you guys dont and that the true line actually at -600 or whatever

A major British bookmaker has publicly stated that the line should be -5000 but that they will get plenty of McGregor money at 10 to 1 type lines.

Also see Toney/Couture...

Last edited by Post-Oak; 08-01-2017 at 11:07 PM.
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Old 08-01-2017, 11:06 PM   #104
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Re: Mayweather v. McGregor

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That is how nature works, which is about as real as it gets. This is totally unprecedented. The Shaolin monk thing is not comparable, as they are not extremely successful sport fighters. You are basing your logic off an idea in your mind, which may or may not be congruent with reality. There is no empirical evidence to support what you are saying.

I don't understand what you mean. What does being an extremely successful "sport fighter" have to do with anything? Do you mean that the James Toney/Randy Couture line was correct? Toney had close to a 15% chance to win that fight because he was an extremely successful sports fighter? And why would your theory of invasive species not apply to successful Shaolin monks or bar room brawlers?

Also, your invasive species analogy is all backwards. This is like expecting some species from a tiny islet which has evolved in isolation to out-compete rats. Floyd has made hundreds of millions of dollars fighting dozens of top rated boxers. McGregor is coming from a fledgling sport that is still rapidly evolving, and hasn't made 1/100 of the money Floyd has.
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Old 08-02-2017, 12:15 AM   #105
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Re: Mayweather v. McGregor

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Fosbury won Olympic gold at the young age of 21 at his first Olympic games with his famous 'Fosbury Flop', he was already practicing his ''weird'' jump early on and got ridiculed for it. So I don't think he was already one of the best high jumpers using 'normal' technique given his age and him saying he started training his specific jump at age 16 because of being unsuccessful with the normal technique

https://www.britannica.com/biography/Dick-Fosbury

Same with Belmonte, he also started throwing the ball with two hands at a very early age, and lots of 'experts' told him he had to change his approach if he wanted to reach the top, he ignored that advice and he is currently the best bowler in the world.

No doubt they where already good using normal techniques, but they became and beaten the absolute best by using unconventional techniques.
Since they used their weird techniques at a young age I should have said that they WOULD have become world class with normal ones. (Does the bowler use two hands for spares as well?) Surely this is true for Fosbury given the correlation, regardless of technique, to vertical leap.

Of course it would be harder to argue if instead you had brought up UNDERHAND FREE THROWS where some 70 year old practitioners can destroy any NBA player but not if they shoot normally.
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Old 08-02-2017, 03:17 AM   #106
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Re: Mayweather v. McGregor

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Originally Posted by Post-Oak View Post
A major British bookmaker has publicly stated that the line should be -5000 but that they will get plenty of McGregor money at 10 to 1 type lines.

Also see Toney/Couture...
Just came across this. A little more on basically just this^^. Also a note about over the last 10 yrs or so the average odds of all of Floyd's fights being around ~-600. This being against all of the top level professional boxers in the world.

http://www.espn.com/chalk/story/_/id...mcgregor-fight
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Old 08-02-2017, 04:16 AM   #107
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Re: Mayweather v. McGregor

you guy are so freaking gullible. it doesn't matter what a book publicy says.

again... a very simple question... if the true line actually was -5000, then why on earth hasnt every single syndicate, runner, sharp etc absolutely blasted the **** out of -600 on literally every single sportsbook and bookie out there?... and the answer to that question is because the true line is actually right around -600 and the ONLY REASON that book is publicly saying **** like that is for their own bottom line and nobody else.


once again... IF the true line was in fact -5000 but they posted the odds at -600... there would so much god damned money reigning down on the books they would have no choice but to push the line back to -5000. It's also just as ignorant and stupid to believe that there is so much square money coming in on CM that the sharps cant push fws line.

The books are doing a damn good job at relieving suckers of their money on BOTH sides of the line.
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Old 08-02-2017, 08:21 AM   #108
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Re: Mayweather v. McGregor

Because no one bets -600 weeks away from the event. I literally said exactly this in an earlier post. Limits are large on this event and most people will be able to get all they can eat, and don't mind taking -800 for having access to a large chunk of their BR for a month.
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Old 08-02-2017, 11:07 AM   #109
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Re: Mayweather v. McGregor

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Since they used their weird techniques at a young age I should have said that they WOULD have become world class with normal ones. (Does the bowler use two hands for spares as well?) Surely this is true for Fosbury given the correlation, regardless of technique, to vertical leap.

Of course it would be harder to argue if instead you had brought up UNDERHAND FREE THROWS where some 70 year old practitioners can destroy any NBA player but not if they shoot normally.
I will have to disagree, I think they became the best BECAUSE and only because of their unorthodox approach. Especially with Fosbury, since his technique is the norm these days, meaning he was way ahead of the curve, and that's exactly why he was the best and won Gold. Why even hypothesize whether they would be world class with normal technique, seems a bit pointless.

Yes Belmonte throws spares with both hands.

I like your example of the underhand free throw, but then again you could argue that although the technique might be better and will yield higher results from the free throw line. This will ONLY be effective in free throws. Tactic and training efficiency would not make it the most optimal way to throw and train, since having a world class normal free throw would also benefit the player immensely during the actual game, where as the underhand free throw will not be effective during the game. So it's better/smarter to train and improve the regular technique/throw. Since there is no game/sport that consist of only throwing free throws, so having the best free throw will not make you a word class basketball player

There is a reason no NBA pro uses the underhand throw, where as in my examples either all pro's (highjump) or the very best (bowling) use it.

I assume your point is that McGregor needs to be a world class boxer first before he can come up with a totally new approach or tactic? That might be the case but not necessarily true. And your example seems flawed in that regard.
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Old 08-02-2017, 12:22 PM   #110
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Re: Mayweather v. McGregor

DS is just being pedantic. Lets try not to derail this into an esoteric discussion on underhanded FTs.
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Old 08-02-2017, 01:15 PM   #111
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Re: Mayweather v. McGregor

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I don't understand what you mean. What does being an extremely successful "sport fighter" have to do with anything? Do you mean that the James Toney/Randy Couture line was correct? Toney had close to a 15% chance to win that fight because he was an extremely successful sports fighter? And why would your theory of invasive species not apply to successful Shaolin monks or bar room brawlers?

Also, your invasive species analogy is all backwards. This is like expecting some species from a tiny islet which has evolved in isolation to out-compete rats. Floyd has made hundreds of millions of dollars fighting dozens of top rated boxers. McGregor is coming from a fledgling sport that is still rapidly evolving, and hasn't made 1/100 of the money Floyd has.
Because shaolin monasteries are not in a competitive environment. The point of kung fu is form, not actually whopping people's asses. Nature, on the other hand, is extremely competitive.

That is why I made the distinction 'sport fighter,' specifically to point out the flaw in your shaolin comment. However, since you have chosen to expand it to the fight as a whole, I grant your exception with Toney. This situation is far different than that, though. In MMA grappling is more of a 'must have' than striking, and Toney half-assedly trained it for 6 months prior to the fight, whereas McGregor has been boxing for a decade, and is a specialist in the art. Also, McGregor is far bigger, faster, younger (i.e. there is a far higher probability Mayweather has hit a massive decline), and has way less ring rust (granted, wrong sport, but we've already established that isn't good for him), whereas Tony had none of those advantages (except maybe size due to being a fat ass).

As I have said numerous times... this is unprecedented. There is no empirical evidence for what happens in a situation like this. I am the guy speaking reasonably, whereas you are the typical guy who comes into betting forums speaking hyperbolically, ultra-confident due to an idea in your mind.

I warn the betting public out there, tail these types at your peril.
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Old 08-02-2017, 01:18 PM   #112
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Re: Mayweather v. McGregor

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another caveat we are all aware of: it IS boxing; and if there is a sport where head scratching outcomes occur on the regular (esp in big fights) it's definitely inside the ring.

still though, confident in my side and either way hopeful for something entertaining
This is probably the most under rated point.

Everything you guys are saying is probably right; the line should be a lot higher and people aren't betting on it now because they dont want to tie up their bankrolls for weeks on end. And in a perfectly logical, sane world, the line will close at exactly what its supposed to and floyd will win easily. But this is one of the biggest fights in history (in terms of eyes on the screen) in a sport known for bizarre upsets and twists and weird things. With that much money changing hands, can you really rule out something underhanded going on? People do a lot worse for a lot less, and risk a lot more for a lot less.
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Old 08-02-2017, 01:39 PM   #113
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Re: Mayweather v. McGregor

Yes, plenty of pro athletes risk their 9 figure paydays to take dives for six figure limit bets.

Great post.
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Old 08-02-2017, 03:43 PM   #114
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Re: Mayweather v. McGregor

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Yes, plenty of pro athletes risk their 9 figure paydays to take dives for six figure limit bets.

Great post.
If Mayweather were to take a dive it wouldn't be done to collect on some six figure bets, it would be done to set up a 9 figure rematch, a fight that would be even bigger than the first (albeit with a worse split for Mayweather.)

Still a lot of value in the line even when factoring in the odds of a Mayweather dive or a crooked judge.
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Old 08-02-2017, 04:45 PM   #115
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Re: Mayweather v. McGregor

Could the best rugby team in the world beat the best NFL team in American football?

laughable
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Old 08-02-2017, 04:46 PM   #116
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Re: Mayweather v. McGregor

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If Mayweather were to take a dive it wouldn't be done to collect on some six figure bets, it would be done to set up a 9 figure rematch, a fight that would be even bigger than the first (albeit with a worse split for Mayweather.)

Still a lot of value in the line even when factoring in the odds of a Mayweather dive or a crooked judge.
Mayweather cares more about his legacy than money.
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Old 08-02-2017, 04:49 PM   #117
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Re: Mayweather v. McGregor

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This situation is far different than that, though. In MMA grappling is more of a 'must have' than striking, and Toney half-assedly trained it for 6 months prior to the fight, whereas McGregor has been boxing for a decade, and is a specialist in the art. Also, McGregor is far bigger, faster
This is wrong and ****ing stupid

You are extremely delusional if you think Conor is a better athlete than Mayweather on any lvl lol
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Old 08-02-2017, 05:33 PM   #118
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Re: Mayweather v. McGregor

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Originally Posted by Johnny_B View Post
If Mayweather were to take a dive it wouldn't be done to collect on some six figure bets, it would be done to set up a 9 figure rematch, a fight that would be even bigger than the first (albeit with a worse split for Mayweather.)

Still a lot of value in the line even when factoring in the odds of a Mayweather dive or a crooked judge.
Just grinding out a decision seems like an easier way to this than getting KTFO.
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Old 08-02-2017, 08:00 PM   #119
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Re: Mayweather v. McGregor

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Yes, plenty of pro athletes risk their 9 figure paydays to take dives for six figure limit bets.

Great post.
Dont need to get to a boxer, just a judge or a ref. Hell, a corner man could do some damage. I don't know exactly how fixing a boxing match works, but if you're insinuating that the general premise that something shady could ever happen in a big prize fight, then you're simply being obtuse for the sake of being obtuse, which as far as I can tell is par for the course with you. Does every single thread you grace your presence with need to devolve like this? Do you honestly think the chances of this fight being fixed in some way is 0%? What was your initial reaction to the super-user Ultimate Bet/Absolute Poker fiasco? 'Cause I seem to recall A LOT of "smart" people loling their faces off at the tin foil hat, Area-51 conspiracy guys who said man it almost seems like these mother ****ers can see my cards! You should read The Black Swan.
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Old 08-02-2017, 08:56 PM   #120
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Re: Mayweather v. McGregor

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Originally Posted by CheckN0rris View Post
I will have to disagree, I think they became the best BECAUSE and only because of their unorthodox approach. Especially with Fosbury, since his technique is the norm these days, meaning he was way ahead of the curve, and that's exactly why he was the best and won Gold. Why even hypothesize whether they would be world class with normal technique, seems a bit pointless.
The whole point of his argument is that the new technique didn't matter much for Fosbury. You say he won because of his new technique. David disagrees, or at least questions that.

The truth is that Fosbury would have been elite even without the technique. The height he cleared in '68 would have won the Olympics in '72 also, despite the fact that in '72, most competitors were using his technique. Also bear in mind that the guy who won in '72 wasn't using the technique, so you can't say that the technique is entirely responsible.
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Old 08-02-2017, 09:30 PM   #121
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Re: Mayweather v. McGregor

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Because no one bets -600 weeks away from the event. I literally said exactly this in an earlier post. Limits are large on this event and most people will be able to get all they can eat, and don't mind taking -800 for having access to a large chunk of their BR for a month.
Why wouldn't they? So you're saying again... that there isn't a sharp or syndicate with a ton of capital that hasn't and will not ever bet weeks out before an event... and that all the mf sharps again on the planet are collectively teaming up and holding back from such INSANE VALUE (remember you guys saying true line is -5000?) and that the books are quivering in fear? I call bull**** again. occams razor man.

If the line actually was insane value... there is no reason why big players haven't pounded -600 TO DEATH and treated the bet as a futures wager.
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Old 08-02-2017, 09:35 PM   #122
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Re: Mayweather v. McGregor

Arguing against myself, suppose Mcgregor starts five feet away and then runs full speed toward Mayweather stopping inches away with fists flying? Or suppose he squats down on his heels such that he is three feet tall and springs up, again fists flying? Are either of those things allowed?
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Old 08-02-2017, 10:17 PM   #123
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Re: Mayweather v. McGregor

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Originally Posted by upswinging View Post
you guy are so freaking gullible. it doesn't matter what a book publicy says.

again... a very simple question... if the true line actually was -5000, then why on earth hasnt every single syndicate, runner, sharp etc absolutely blasted the **** out of -600 on literally every single sportsbook and bookie out there?... and the answer to that question is because the true line is actually right around -600 and the ONLY REASON that book is publicly saying **** like that is for their own bottom line and nobody else.


once again... IF the true line was in fact -5000 but they posted the odds at -600... there would so much god damned money reigning down on the books they would have no choice but to push the line back to -5000. It's also just as ignorant and stupid to believe that there is so much square money coming in on CM that the sharps cant push fws line.

The books are doing a damn good job at relieving suckers of their money on BOTH sides of the line.
There is not an infinite amount of sharp $$$ to offset every Riley, Patrick and Sean betting this fight . It's an anomaly in that sense . Sharps may not want their $$ tied up and none actually trust boxing.
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Old 08-02-2017, 11:00 PM   #124
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Re: Mayweather v. McGregor

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Yes, plenty of pro athletes risk their 9 figure paydays to take dives for six figure limit bets.

Great post.
Your lack of imagination amuses me. You think the only thing to be gained from taking a dive are cashed tickets?
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Old 08-02-2017, 11:04 PM   #125
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Re: Mayweather v. McGregor

By the way, is anyone actually attempting to handicap this? Or ya'll just thinking along the lines of "best fighter in the world, arguably of all time, vs someone whos not even a pro boxer". 'Cause I've seen all sorts of numbers bandied about; from -600 all the way up to -5000. I wonder if it is indeed a 9 to 1 sort of thing or 100 to 1.

Also, a question to the Floyd has this fight already won crowd; at what price would you take Conor?
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