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Old 07-19-2017, 10:55 PM   #76
Cincinnatus
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Re: Mayweather v. McGregor

i put down a few k on Floyd winning within the distance at -165. This is a no brainer to me. The fact that the odds have lowered so much in mcgregor's favor is absolutely stupid to me and i can't think of a legitimate reason other than mma/irish/white pride/anti-mayweather fans excited at his **** talking and wanting to believe.

that this fight was at one point Floyd -600 (-700 now) is absurd. Those are better odds than some of Floyd's previous title fights! http://www.oddsshark.com/boxing/floy...r-betting-odds

There's no shot this will go 12. Floyd's career punch stat accuracy is something like 45% and he's gonna have no problem hitting Mcgregor 60% plus. He may not have one punch KO but Mcgregor has a poor gas tank, is gonna have to make a hard weight cut, has never boxed professionally let alone 6 rounds, and his corner will throw in the towel rather than have him take 250 plus punches to the face if they wanna maintain his health to fight in the ufc once again. Oh and the body? he's has no idea how much more important body punching is in real boxing and watch floyd hit him with jabs and straights repeatedly to the body. He'll wanna quit by 7 if the fight isnt stopped before then by the ref, medical reasons, or towel being thrown in by the corner.

If hard punching combo machines like Canelo couldn't touch Floyd how in the hell is Mcgregor going to? I'm not even going get into the rumors that Mcgregor was just knocked out in a recent sparring session...

-165 Floyd within the distance. ridiculously easy money. The dodgers tonight with Kershaw pitching are -265 favorites against the White Sox. This boxing match is the equivalent of the Dodgers starting Kershaw against the best high school baseball team in the country.

Last edited by Cincinnatus; 07-19-2017 at 11:00 PM.
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Old 07-20-2017, 02:08 AM   #77
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Re: Mayweather v. McGregor

there are people who legitimately think connor will win then take the boxing world by storm and beat canelo/ggg next etc

rogan hype train is a *****
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Old 07-20-2017, 04:46 AM   #78
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Re: Mayweather v. McGregor

This is starting to remind me of the Trump vs. Clinton echo chamber that was rampant on this site (my theory is that poker players, because it's so common to get people drawing dead, are quite fishy when it comes to dealing with these types of heavily juiced betting markets). As an experienced combat sports bettor, I must warn people who are thinking of collecting "free money" on this spectacle, that the incredulous tone of this thread should not be taken as a vote of confidence of being the right side of the market.
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Old 07-20-2017, 05:46 AM   #79
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Re: Mayweather v. McGregor

Haha it indeed is similiar attitude as in clinton vs trump betting (actually won a lot of money there). Obviously Mcgregor has chances vs Mayweather, but that doesn't mean that the market has set correct odds for the fight.

My arguments for betting on Mayweather are basically:

- McGregor is an amateur boxer and he still gets better odds than multiple Mayweathers earlier opponents. Kinda wierd at least to me.

- It's a huge ****ing fight and everyone wants to see McGregor win, basically everyone hates Mayweather and love McGregor the huuuuuuge underdog. This absolutely will make the recreationals throw money at McGregor, especially as recs don't like to bet the favourite when the payoff is small.



I literally have no experience in betting MMA/boxing or basically sports at all, so I'm not an expert in evaluating how big of a chances McGregor truly has. I only bet some random stuff where I think it's likely that market is ****ing something up, and to me this seems a case like that, so have ok sized bet on mayweather, but still very small % of my networth. My only worry is that the fight is gonna be rigged for a guaranteed rematch.



What I find interesting is that the odds have been getting better for McGregor, when I estimated that over time "smart money" is going to place huge bets on Mayweather. Guess it's still a bit early to say what the odds gonna be on gamenight.
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Old 07-20-2017, 06:27 AM   #80
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Re: Mayweather v. McGregor

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Originally Posted by The Don View Post
This is starting to remind me of the Trump vs. Clinton echo chamber that was rampant on this site (my theory is that poker players, because it's so common to get people drawing dead, are quite fishy when it comes to dealing with these types of heavily juiced betting markets). As an experienced combat sports bettor, I must warn people who are thinking of collecting "free money" on this spectacle, that the incredulous tone of this thread should not be taken as a vote of confidence of being the right side of the market.
There are a handful of partisan supporters that routinely **** up all the election threads. Poker players are mostly just kinda dumb transients who barely make enough money to get by.
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Old 07-20-2017, 07:36 AM   #81
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Re: Mayweather v. McGregor

Quote:
Originally Posted by Cincinnatus View Post
i put down a few k on Floyd winning within the distance at -165. This is a no brainer to me. The fact that the odds have lowered so much in mcgregor's favor is absolutely stupid to me and i can't think of a legitimate reason other than mma/irish/white pride/anti-mayweather fans excited at his **** talking and wanting to believe.

that this fight was at one point Floyd -600 (-700 now) is absurd. Those are better odds than some of Floyd's previous title fights! http://www.oddsshark.com/boxing/floy...r-betting-odds

There's no shot this will go 12. Floyd's career punch stat accuracy is something like 45% and he's gonna have no problem hitting Mcgregor 60% plus. He may not have one punch KO but Mcgregor has a poor gas tank, is gonna have to make a hard weight cut, has never boxed professionally let alone 6 rounds, and his corner will throw in the towel rather than have him take 250 plus punches to the face if they wanna maintain his health to fight in the ufc once again. Oh and the body? he's has no idea how much more important body punching is in real boxing and watch floyd hit him with jabs and straights repeatedly to the body. He'll wanna quit by 7 if the fight isnt stopped before then by the ref, medical reasons, or towel being thrown in by the corner.

If hard punching combo machines like Canelo couldn't touch Floyd how in the hell is Mcgregor going to? I'm not even going get into the rumors that Mcgregor was just knocked out in a recent sparring session...

-165 Floyd within the distance. ridiculously easy money. The dodgers tonight with Kershaw pitching are -265 favorites against the White Sox. This boxing match is the equivalent of the Dodgers starting Kershaw against the best high school baseball team in the country.
I agree with most of this, and am on the under as well. Can't wait to see this ****show.
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Old 07-20-2017, 11:30 AM   #82
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Re: Mayweather v. McGregor

Going the distance seems a less likely scenario - TKO or stoppage seem more plausible IMO
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Old 07-20-2017, 07:25 PM   #83
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Re: Mayweather v. McGregor

Mayweather by decision is easy $ IMO. Also surprised ov/un on rounds you can get + money on over 9.5
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Old 07-20-2017, 07:43 PM   #84
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Re: Mayweather v. McGregor

Hint: there's a reason for that.
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Old 07-21-2017, 10:36 AM   #85
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Re: Mayweather v. McGregor

My thought isn't so much about Conor getting gassed (I see how that could happen) but I think his issues are going to be more with patience - impatient fighters take too may risks and open themselves up to counters that can stop the fight in one flurry of a combo. I'd kinda "like" Conor to pull it off just for the wow factor, but I think he gets impatient and that leads to mistakes in the early to mid rounds of the fight (~6/7 rounds)
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Old 07-24-2017, 07:30 PM   #86
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Re: Mayweather v. McGregor

Everyone forgetting that mc g will just choke him out

Why no one is betting tap out is weird.
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Old 07-24-2017, 10:03 PM   #87
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Re: Mayweather v. McGregor

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Originally Posted by rainmaker1855 View Post
Going the distance seems a less likely scenario - TKO or stoppage seem more plausible IMO
Agree with this. I think tko likely. Mayweather doesn't have ko power.... however he is fighting a guy that has never boxed. Not sure how he will react to a boxing punch or combination of them. I personally see a tko. Either ref stops fight or corner throws in towel. I feel mayweather is just going to pepper him jabs at a high clip. If he hits him around 40-60% landed, fight will def be stopped I feel. I'm
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Old 07-25-2017, 07:01 PM   #88
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Re: Mayweather v. McGregor

Family member told me once that some guy at a fare or event was really good in the boxing ring, one of those any one can get in and have a go.

Guy was plowimg through everyone, who ever it was they knew
What they were doing,

Unfortunailty some one called nigel.b was passing by..,

Apparently it was out of line what nigel did that night,

Not only is conor getting in with a world class boxer is possibly the goat, and that is a legit contention,

If you are standing upright and not defending your self proplerly, boxing is the sport of choice to have your arrse handed to you.

Boxing is not about brute force,

Lewis was into chess as a heavy weight.

In thoery if conor fought defensive and smothered the fight only, still money would rip his body / jaw.

You give a professional boxer huge openings with nothing (danger) in return, you are going to get seriously hurt.

All the tricks of boxing.. 100 years of it plus, mayweather knows it all inside out outside in, and current master no1 that loves his dog house.

Its more in mayweathers power to end the fight early than it is to drag it the distance..,..

I am on the under 9 1/2,
Boxing pride is at stake here also.

Conor is going to get toyed with imo pass the honeymoon 1st 2nd rds.

Unusal fight, any outcome is possible thou obviously, even a d win by conor.

Brutal first few rds thou.. going to a hot night, both will get in that ring fully warmed up no mistake.
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Old 07-29-2017, 12:59 AM   #89
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Re: Mayweather v. McGregor

I'd rather watch the Meat Man fight Fezzik.
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Old 07-29-2017, 12:56 PM   #90
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Re: Mayweather v. McGregor

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Originally Posted by The Don View Post
This is starting to remind me of the Trump vs. Clinton echo chamber that was rampant on this site (my theory is that poker players, because it's so common to get people drawing dead, are quite fishy when it comes to dealing with these types of heavily juiced betting markets). As an experienced combat sports bettor, I must warn people who are thinking of collecting "free money" on this spectacle, that the incredulous tone of this thread should not be taken as a vote of confidence of being the right side of the market.
You are failing to account for the enormous amount of recreational/MMA fans money coming in on McGregor. There is no such thing as "free money" however as has been mentioned several times there the price on Mayweather is tighter against an inexperienced boxer than it has been when he was taking on the best boxers in the world. Mayweather connected on 49% of his jabs vs Pacquiao to the latters 24%. This match should read closer to 65% vs 15% with each round being scored in the 10-8 range.

The poker rooms are filled with these types using highly analytical reasoning for their McGregor pick such as "McGregor is crazy!", "He's a maniac", and "He's a bad man!" MMA fans do not understand how boxing's scoring system works (yes I recognize some boxing judges don't either but that is another story).
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Old 07-30-2017, 09:31 AM   #91
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Re: Mayweather v. McGregor

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What's so delusional?

Clearly he is talking about your silly Bruce Lee-esque, invasive species comment. That's not how real life works, let alone the sport of boxing. You are not gonna find some Shaolin Monk to beat professional boxers in boxing. Sorry. This is school boy type thinking.

McGregor is 28 years old to Floyd's 40. He should be over 20 lbs heavier on fight night. That being said, I see one path to victory for him. If Floyd knocks him down and then hits him while he is down, Mayweather could get DQed.

This line should be -9000
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Old 07-30-2017, 02:57 PM   #92
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Re: Mayweather v. McGregor

Does anyone know what the worst odds floyyd ever went off at? I think I remember seeing him at like -2000 or worse for a fight or two. So the market is saying that mcgregor would be a favorite in his first boxing match ever over a few guys who were at least good enough to get in the ring with floyd. Makes no sense to me, unless there really is THAT much square MMA money coming in.

And I know that just because fighter A is favorite over fighter B, and fighter C was a fav over fighter A, doesn't mean fighter B would be favorite over C. But we're talking about -2000 (I think) vs -600ish, or whatever no vig price for this fight is currently.
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Old 07-31-2017, 11:34 AM   #93
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Re: Mayweather v. McGregor

McGregor can only win if he changes boxing forever, if he comes in with a certain stance, technique or tactic that boxing has never seen before.

With conventional boxing he obviously has no chance, he must think outside the box and try something totally new and surprise Mayweather.

Look in to the 'Fosbury Flop' named after high jumper Dick Fosbury, he was the first one to think outside the box and used a totally different technique and jumped with the back first over the high bar, wich today is the common technique used by all high jumpers, but Dick was the first one to ever do it and broke all records.

The same has been done in Bowling, with the Australian Jason Belmonte who trowed the bowling ball with both hands instead of the standard one hand throw, he is currently the best bowler in the world.

Conor must come up with something similar, a paradigm shift, a totally different approach to the game of boxing.

Can he do it? obviously that's not likely at all, but beside the puncher chance to win, that is what it takes.

As a bet, I'm currently betting Floyd by decision at 3.0, might even go for UD for a bit better price. Really like the price, way better than Floyd straight up, or ITD.
I don't think Floyd will take much risk, and is perfectly fine just cruising to a decision, he can win the fight using only his jab. Might hedge with Conor in early rounds, since I actually hope he wins and will be rooting for him.
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Old 07-31-2017, 01:39 PM   #94
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Re: Mayweather v. McGregor

Jeans89 bet 200k€ on Mayweather
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Old 07-31-2017, 05:44 PM   #95
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Re: Mayweather v. McGregor

Quote:
Originally Posted by CheckN0rris View Post
McGregor can only win if he changes boxing forever, if he comes in with a certain stance, technique or tactic that boxing has never seen before.

With conventional boxing he obviously has no chance, he must think outside the box and try something totally new and surprise Mayweather.

Look in to the 'Fosbury Flop' named after high jumper Dick Fosbury, he was the first one to think outside the box and used a totally different technique and jumped with the back first over the high bar, wich today is the common technique used by all high jumpers, but Dick was the first one to ever do it and broke all records.

The same has been done in Bowling, with the Australian Jason Belmonte who trowed the bowling ball with both hands instead of the standard one hand throw, he is currently the best bowler in the world.

Conor must come up with something similar, a paradigm shift, a totally different approach to the game of boxing.

Can he do it? obviously that's not likely at all, but beside the puncher chance to win, that is what it takes.

As a bet, I'm currently betting Floyd by decision at 3.0, might even go for UD for a bit better price. Really like the price, way better than Floyd straight up, or ITD.
I don't think Floyd will take much risk, and is perfectly fine just cruising to a decision, he can win the fight using only his jab. Might hedge with Conor in early rounds, since I actually hope he wins and will be rooting for him.
New way of boxing really think Connor McGregor going use some unknown Asian boxing from ancient times long forgotten?

Either maywhether knocks him out , talking about best ever boxer against a ufc fighter

Or it rigged and go's the to a judge's decision, which is what might happen as what wouldn't you do for that kind of money.

Bs fight that is not sport it should be on Wwf.

Disclaimer at start this entertainment only and not be taken seriously.
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Old 07-31-2017, 10:19 PM   #96
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Re: Mayweather v. McGregor

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Makes no sense to me, unless there really is THAT much square MMA money coming in.
But but but... when McGregor says he'll do a ting he does that ting! He said he was going to knock out Jose Aldo and he did! He's only ever lost by submission, and Mayweather obviously can't sub him! Are you calling him a liar? Are you doubting the word of the great Mystic Mac? :P

Yeah, there's probably a heap of square MMA money coming in on this fight.
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Old 08-01-2017, 12:09 AM   #97
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Re: Mayweather v. McGregor

ffs you guys...

so you guys are claiming that you're either sharper than the syndicates and books and other extremely sharp money coming in... or that these guys simply dont have enough money (HUGE LOL) to move the line to say -2000 if those were the true odds?

Or probably the most likely explanation is youre not sharper than the books or the syndicates or the other sharp money and that they know something you guys dont and that the true line actually at -600 or whatever
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Old 08-01-2017, 02:41 AM   #98
David Sklansky
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Re: Mayweather v. McGregor

Quote:
Originally Posted by CheckN0rris View Post

Look in to the 'Fosbury Flop' named after high jumper Dick Fosbury, he was the first one to think outside the box and used a totally different technique and jumped with the back first over the high bar, wich today is the common technique used by all high jumpers, but Dick was the first one to ever do it and broke all records.

The same has been done in Bowling, with the Australian Jason Belmonte who trowed the bowling ball with both hands instead of the standard one hand throw, he is currently the best bowler in the world.

Conor must come up with something similar, a paradigm shift, a totally different approach to the game of boxing.

Can he do it? obviously that's not likely at all, but beside the puncher chance to win, that is what it takes.
Correct me if I am wrong, but I think that both of those two fellows were just slightly below the world's best with normal techniques.
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Old 08-01-2017, 03:45 AM   #99
CheckN0rris
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Re: Mayweather v. McGregor

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Correct me if I am wrong, but I think that both of those two fellows were just slightly below the world's best with normal techniques.
Fosbury won Olympic gold at the young age of 21 at his first Olympic games with his famous 'Fosbury Flop', he was already practicing his ''weird'' jump early on and got ridiculed for it. So I don't think he was already one of the best high jumpers using 'normal' technique given his age and him saying he started training his specific jump at age 16 because of being unsuccessful with the normal technique

https://www.britannica.com/biography/Dick-Fosbury

Same with Belmonte, he also started throwing the ball with two hands at a very early age, and lots of 'experts' told him he had to change his approach if he wanted to reach the top, he ignored that advice and he is currently the best bowler in the world.

No doubt they where already good using normal techniques, but they became and beaten the absolute best by using unconventional techniques.

Same goes for McGregor he is taking on the best, only way to win is with unconventional technique/tactics. Actually Most people already expect him to fight in a weird and awkward style. If that style is somehow effective and he wins or even comes close, I'm sure it will change boxing and people will learn and adapt certain aspects from his approach. But yes it most likely will be an awkward and weird style that is actually LESS effective.

Again to be clear, I'm not saying that I think McGregor is capable of it, or that it's even possible to approach boxing in a completely new way, although I would love to see it happen. I just think that something of that magnitude is needed to win, which actually may indicate that he even has a smaller change of winning vs Floyd.

But who knows, maybe in 10 years the best fighters will throw 2 punches with both hands at the same time
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Old 08-01-2017, 04:21 AM   #100
The Don
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Re: Mayweather v. McGregor

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Originally Posted by Post-Oak View Post
Clearly he is talking about your silly Bruce Lee-esque, invasive species comment. That's not how real life works, let alone the sport of boxing. You are not gonna find some Shaolin Monk to beat professional boxers in boxing. Sorry. This is school boy type thinking.

McGregor is 28 years old to Floyd's 40. He should be over 20 lbs heavier on fight night. That being said, I see one path to victory for him. If Floyd knocks him down and then hits him while he is down, Mayweather could get DQed.

This line should be -9000
That is how nature works, which is about as real as it gets. This is totally unprecedented. The Shaolin monk thing is not comparable, as they are not extremely successful sport fighters. You are basing your logic off an idea in your mind, which may or may not be congruent with reality. There is no empirical evidence to support what you are saying.
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